Offseason move[] thread

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Popeye_Card
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Re: Offseason moves thread

Post by Popeye_Card »

MrCrowesGarden wrote:
November 30 22, 12:47 pm
Yeah that's why there aren't moves
It isn’t the whole story of course, but a cap does drive a more condensed free agent frenzy. With most teams within $5-20MM of the cap come free agent time in the NHL, both players and teams know the market pretty darn well. It is essentially a coordinated game of musical chairs.

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Re: Offseason moves thread

Post by MrCrowesGarden »

Famous Mortimer wrote:
November 30 22, 1:04 pm
MrCrowesGarden wrote:
November 30 22, 11:56 am
Edman is perfect as a 9th place hitter in a DH league. It’s also why I still don’t think his WAR is really as valuable as someone who generates most of it with the bat.
You can think it's not quite as exciting to watch someone really good at defence / less good with the bat (I tend to agree) but I'd be interested to know what your opinion would be the first time a bat-first Cardinal SS let a game-winning hit go by them. Do you think WAR overrates all defence, or just Edman's? Genuine question, having seen stats come and stats go.

If you think fWAR is useful / accurate, though, wanting to upgrade from the guy who was top 20 in all of baseball last year (the only people who were better at SS last year were Swanson, Bogaerts, Turner and Lindor) does seem a bit odd. I think there are positions the Cardinals are much more likely to go shopping for.
I don't know if this answers your question, but I think defense by and large is overrated. Some guys are better at it, some are worse, but there's only so much you can gain by being an S-tier defender, and it's less than can be gained by being a behemoth with the bat. Whether it's Edman or Bader or Dejong, we've seen players with WAR totals that look anywhere from acceptable to good but who are borderline unplayable when the bat is miserable. AFA the game-winning hit thing goes: I guess them's the breaks? Surely it's happened to Edman or Arenado or Ozzie or any other elite fielder too.

I do agree that it's unlikely the Cardinals will look to address shortstop. Edman is fine so long as he's batting at the bottom of the lineup because he is a good defender with good speed. I really don't get the holding a place open for Masyn Winn.

dmarx114
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Re: Offseason moves thread

Post by dmarx114 »

MrCrowesGarden wrote:
November 30 22, 1:17 pm
Famous Mortimer wrote:
November 30 22, 1:04 pm
MrCrowesGarden wrote:
November 30 22, 11:56 am
Edman is perfect as a 9th place hitter in a DH league. It’s also why I still don’t think his WAR is really as valuable as someone who generates most of it with the bat.
You can think it's not quite as exciting to watch someone really good at defence / less good with the bat (I tend to agree) but I'd be interested to know what your opinion would be the first time a bat-first Cardinal SS let a game-winning hit go by them. Do you think WAR overrates all defence, or just Edman's? Genuine question, having seen stats come and stats go.

If you think fWAR is useful / accurate, though, wanting to upgrade from the guy who was top 20 in all of baseball last year (the only people who were better at SS last year were Swanson, Bogaerts, Turner and Lindor) does seem a bit odd. I think there are positions the Cardinals are much more likely to go shopping for.
I don't know if this answers your question, but I think defense by and large is overrated. Some guys are better at it, some are worse, but there's only so much you can gain by being an S-tier defender, and it's less than can be gained by being a behemoth with the bat. Whether it's Edman or Bader or Dejong, we've seen players with WAR totals that look anywhere from acceptable to good but who are borderline unplayable when the bat is miserable. AFA the game-winning hit thing goes: I guess them's the breaks? Surely it's happened to Edman or Arenado or Ozzie or any other elite fielder too.

I do agree that it's unlikely the Cardinals will look to address shortstop. Edman is fine so long as he's batting at the bottom of the lineup because he is a good defender with good speed. I really don't get the holding a place open for Masyn Winn.
Why don't you get it?

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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: Offseason moves thread

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

MrCrowesGarden wrote:
November 30 22, 1:17 pm
Famous Mortimer wrote:
November 30 22, 1:04 pm
MrCrowesGarden wrote:
November 30 22, 11:56 am
Edman is perfect as a 9th place hitter in a DH league. It’s also why I still don’t think his WAR is really as valuable as someone who generates most of it with the bat.
You can think it's not quite as exciting to watch someone really good at defence / less good with the bat (I tend to agree) but I'd be interested to know what your opinion would be the first time a bat-first Cardinal SS let a game-winning hit go by them. Do you think WAR overrates all defence, or just Edman's? Genuine question, having seen stats come and stats go.

If you think fWAR is useful / accurate, though, wanting to upgrade from the guy who was top 20 in all of baseball last year (the only people who were better at SS last year were Swanson, Bogaerts, Turner and Lindor) does seem a bit odd. I think there are positions the Cardinals are much more likely to go shopping for.
I don't know if this answers your question, but I think defense by and large is overrated. Some guys are better at it, some are worse, but there's only so much you can gain by being an S-tier defender, and it's less than can be gained by being a behemoth with the bat. Whether it's Edman or Bader or Dejong, we've seen players with WAR totals that look anywhere from acceptable to good but who are borderline unplayable when the bat is miserable. AFA the game-winning hit thing goes: I guess them's the breaks? Surely it's happened to Edman or Arenado or Ozzie or any other elite fielder too.

I do agree that it's unlikely the Cardinals will look to address shortstop. Edman is fine so long as he's batting at the bottom of the lineup because he is a good defender with good speed. I really don't get the holding a place open for Masyn Winn.
You are correct. The Nicky Lopez factor. 6 WAR season from defense alone. Atrocious bat.

Hayes is another one going down this path. Edman will be a ~.300-315 xwOBA. That needs to be at number 9. If Winn can duplicate that bat, then someone in the MI needs to move.
Last edited by Big Amoco Sign on November 30 22, 1:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Offseason moves thread

Post by MrCrowesGarden »

dmarx114 wrote:
November 30 22, 1:42 pm
MrCrowesGarden wrote:
November 30 22, 1:17 pm
Famous Mortimer wrote:
November 30 22, 1:04 pm
MrCrowesGarden wrote:
November 30 22, 11:56 am
Edman is perfect as a 9th place hitter in a DH league. It’s also why I still don’t think his WAR is really as valuable as someone who generates most of it with the bat.
You can think it's not quite as exciting to watch someone really good at defence / less good with the bat (I tend to agree) but I'd be interested to know what your opinion would be the first time a bat-first Cardinal SS let a game-winning hit go by them. Do you think WAR overrates all defence, or just Edman's? Genuine question, having seen stats come and stats go.

If you think fWAR is useful / accurate, though, wanting to upgrade from the guy who was top 20 in all of baseball last year (the only people who were better at SS last year were Swanson, Bogaerts, Turner and Lindor) does seem a bit odd. I think there are positions the Cardinals are much more likely to go shopping for.
I don't know if this answers your question, but I think defense by and large is overrated. Some guys are better at it, some are worse, but there's only so much you can gain by being an S-tier defender, and it's less than can be gained by being a behemoth with the bat. Whether it's Edman or Bader or Dejong, we've seen players with WAR totals that look anywhere from acceptable to good but who are borderline unplayable when the bat is miserable. AFA the game-winning hit thing goes: I guess them's the breaks? Surely it's happened to Edman or Arenado or Ozzie or any other elite fielder too.

I do agree that it's unlikely the Cardinals will look to address shortstop. Edman is fine so long as he's batting at the bottom of the lineup because he is a good defender with good speed. I really don't get the holding a place open for Masyn Winn.
Why don't you get it?
Because he's probably not going to be good.

By this same token, why do you believe he will be?
Last edited by MrCrowesGarden on November 30 22, 1:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Fat_Bulldog
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Re: Offseason moves thread

Post by Fat_Bulldog »

They owe DeJong like $9 M in 2023.

What kind of BSOHL and "working on his swing" and "he's our SS" bs rhetoric are we going to hear this winter and spring.

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JoeMcKim
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Re: Offseason moves thread

Post by JoeMcKim »

Fat_Bulldog wrote:
November 30 22, 1:52 pm
They owe DeJong like $9 M in 2023.

What kind of BSOHL and "working on his swing" and "he's our SS" bs rhetoric are we going to hear this winter and spring.
Maybe they could pull a Face/Off where they take off Paul DeJong's face and put it on somebody who can actually hit and field.

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Re: Offseason moves thread

Post by GeddyWrox »

At lunch on BK and Ferrario (101) they were speculating about possible trade options with TOR. They were saying TOR may want to swap Noot for Jansen, but that the value isn't equal there due to Noot's controllable years being more than Jansen. They then speculated that Mo might be able to include Paulie D to offset the value difference. I thought this was an interesting scenario.

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Re: Offseason moves thread

Post by Famous Mortimer »

MrCrowesGarden wrote:
November 30 22, 1:17 pm
I don't know if this answers your question, but I think defense by and large is overrated. Some guys are better at it, some are worse, but there's only so much you can gain by being an S-tier defender, and it's less than can be gained by being a behemoth with the bat. Whether it's Edman or Bader or Dejong, we've seen players with WAR totals that look anywhere from acceptable to good but who are borderline unplayable when the bat is miserable. AFA the game-winning hit thing goes: I guess them's the breaks? Surely it's happened to Edman or Arenado or Ozzie or any other elite fielder too.

I do agree that it's unlikely the Cardinals will look to address shortstop. Edman is fine so long as he's batting at the bottom of the lineup because he is a good defender with good speed. I really don't get the holding a place open for Masyn Winn.
Do you think Ozzie Smith should be in the Hall of Fame?

Like I said, I don't want to watch a team of defenders either, but it does win games from time to time. By the same token, surely everyone is borderline unplayable when the bat is miserable?

The problem with all these arguments is, Edman was fine with the bat last year too. 108 wRC+, decent walk and strikeout rates, best baserunning shortstop...if that's your number 9, then you're winning 110 games.

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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: Offseason moves thread

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

Famous Mortimer wrote:
November 30 22, 4:48 pm
Do you think Ozzie Smith should be in the Hall of Fame?

Like I said, I don't want to watch a team of defenders either, but it does win games from time to time. By the same token, surely everyone is borderline unplayable when the bat is miserable?

The problem with all these arguments is, Edman was fine with the bat last year too. 108 wRC+, decent walk and strikeout rates, best baserunning shortstop...if that's your number 9, then you're winning 110 games.
He’s probably closer to 90 wRC+ as his xwOBA trends down. And he seemed to play a bit above level. Someone might point to shifts but assuming the entire league hits better with shift bans, I don’t see his bat elevating too much above league average from here on out.

The upgrade spots to me are front line starter and OF. I don’t buy into Dylan Carlson being an impact corner OF bat. Can’t hit righties. But if he’s in CF I could live with it. But I question the glove there over large samples.

I still think Haniger would be a good fit on this team to shore up the OF and DH questions. Go get deGrom or someone. Do you guys like early playoff exits? Just making it isn’t enough. Need dominant pitching.

An off-season of Rodon, Haniger, and Vasquez would be cool. Or even Rodon and Murphy/Jansen is fine. Since I don’t see Cards doing three decent signings. They like trades.
Last edited by Big Amoco Sign on November 30 22, 5:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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