2023 Payroll Thread

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go birds
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Re: 2023 Payroll Thread

Post by go birds »

dmarx114 wrote:
January 19 23, 8:52 am
go birds wrote:
January 19 23, 8:46 am
dmarx114 wrote:
January 19 23, 8:10 am
AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:
January 19 23, 8:02 am
haltz wrote:
January 18 23, 8:37 pm

This is better than the coded nonsense from Mo. I mean there's something to it where they don't pull the trigger on Arenado because they owe Price, Pujols and Heyward $82M or whatever in 2021. Obviously they could, but realistically I don't think it happens. I wonder how much the playoff crapshoot math has changed though and permeated the FO and ownership, because it's not the same with the new format.
Agreed on all accounts.

Bernie goes on to break down the playoff success between the periods of 1996-2013 and 2014-2022 and it's a staggering difference in win percentage, titles, pennants, etc. Of course, that breakdown is arbitrarily set up so take it fwiw. But, there is no doubt that 'recently' whatever that means, the model has not been as effective as it was a decade + ago.

To summarize the different viewpoints I see on the board over the years, they kind of break down as follows:
1. Build juggernauts regardless of cost.
2. Keep payroll in mind, but be more aggressive with top tier FA, raise payroll as needed.
3. Mildly successful, near the playoff teams every year is great since it happens nearly every year.

Obviously 1 is a pipe dream, and we could all kind of surmise 3 was DeWitt's preference. I'm actually kind of impressed at how in tune the board is to that.

But, if there was any doubt, he just basically stated it. His goal is to get to the playoffs. And, not take on any extra risk than is necessary to do so. At least that's how I interpret it.

All that said, I do wonder, if your goal is to win as many championships as possible over an unlimited time frame in the current stratified structure where some teams are trying to build juggernauts and some teams are focused on saving money and rebuilding, what approach results in more postseaon success given there are limited but not crippling payroll limitations and keeping in mind just how fickle postseason baseball is:

A. Take a low risk approach and build a 90ish win team, get into the playoffs 80% of the time, and roll the dice.
B. Introduce more risk/contracts, raise the ceiling of some teams up to 100 wins at the cost of lowering the floor of some seasons to a below playoff threshold.

I don't know how to go about solving that question or if it is even solvable. We kind of looked at it in some other thread where we were talking about playoffs/odds earlier this offseason/during the playoffs. I think you can make the case for either A or B. But...no idea how reliable the assumptions are.
It's kind of funny that the Cardinals 2 championships in the wild card era were teams that won 83 games and won the wild card. There wasn't anything different about the model back then, compared to now.

The only thing that's changing is that we are losing close playoff games instead of winning them. But that's baseball. And that's how October works.
well having a first ballot HOFer in the heart of the order helps.

Here are albert pujols' stats in the playoffs, including 2022: 19 homers in 304 ABs while slashing .319/.422/.572

The cardinals have been dining off these rings for years and will continue to do so until the NL is no longer the worst division in baseball.
Maybe Mo should have acquired an MVP candidate.....or 2.

Welcome to October.
our MVP candidates playoff stats:

goldy: 8 homers in 92 ABs with a slash line of .261/.333/.576--propped up by his two playoff appearances with the d-backs
arenado: pointless to even type out because his numbers are bad

very small sample size though because the cardinals don't make it past the first round with these MVPs

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MrCrowesGarden
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Re: 2023 Payroll Thread

Post by MrCrowesGarden »

"Welcome to October" as we're in the era of juggernauts winning the World Series. This is why that analogy about Ferraris vs. Honda Accords never held up. There's no award for the best record over a 10-year span that anyone cares about.

AWvsCBsteeeerike3
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Re: 2023 Payroll Thread

Post by AWvsCBsteeeerike3 »

Excluding 2020 and keeping with the same timeframe as used in Bernie's article, since 2014 the WS winner has won this many regular season games:
106
88
93
108
101
103
95
88

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MrCrowesGarden
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Re: 2023 Payroll Thread

Post by MrCrowesGarden »

and the previous 8 seasons:

97
94
90
92
103
92
96
83

dmarx114
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Re: 2023 Payroll Thread

Post by dmarx114 »

AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:
January 19 23, 10:02 am
Excluding 2020 and keeping with the same timeframe as used in Bernie's article, since 2014 the WS winner has won this many regular season games:
106
88
93
108
101
103
95
88
Yup, pretty mixed and random, as expected.

Congrats to the Astros for going 7-1 in 1 or 2 run games during the 2022 post season.

Cardinals 0-5 in last 5 post season games that were decided by 1 or 2 runs. 0-6 if you count the Helsley meltdown last year that resulted in a 3 run loss, but obviously was a close game.

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MrCrowesGarden
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Re: 2023 Payroll Thread

Post by MrCrowesGarden »

Maybe you should just watch coinflips instead then and save yourself 3 hours

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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: 2023 Payroll Thread

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:
January 19 23, 10:02 am
Excluding 2020 and keeping with the same timeframe as used in Bernie's article, since 2014 the WS winner has won this many regular season games:
106
88
93
108
101
103
95
88
Except none of that matters with the new seeding, which favors juggernauts. And rightfully so. I wish there was a way to punish wild card sneak-in teams even more because it makes owners act like DeWallet. I hope the other NL central teams start building juggernauts. Otherwise Cardinals keep doing this cheapo model. Really hope they get rid of divisions soon. That will help. Honestly, I'd rather watch a team like SD, who spends and trades and keeps excitement around their roster building than a team who boasts risk-averse business models. But, grew up basically living Busch 2 so I'm stuck rooting for the Cardinals.

Another thing about that trend: top pitching prevails if you sneak in. Even the 2014 Giants relied mostly on the arm of their lone top pitcher: Bumgarner.

This "coin flip once you're in" assertion is straight up not true and I see no supporting evidence of that.

Socnorb11
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Re: 2023 Payroll Thread

Post by Socnorb11 »

MrCrowesGarden wrote:
January 19 23, 10:25 am
Maybe you should just watch coinflips instead then and save yourself 3 hours
Or we could just auction off the World Series Trophy to the highest bidder.

Magneto2.0
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Re: 2023 Payroll Thread

Post by Magneto2.0 »

Big Amoco Sign wrote:
January 19 23, 10:33 am
AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:
January 19 23, 10:02 am
Excluding 2020 and keeping with the same timeframe as used in Bernie's article, since 2014 the WS winner has won this many regular season games:
106
88
93
108
101
103
95
88
Except none of that matters with the new seeding, which favors juggernauts. And rightfully so. I wish there was a way to punish wild card sneak-in teams even more because it makes owners act like DeWallet. I hope the other NL central teams start building juggernauts. Otherwise Cardinals keep doing this cheapo model. Really hope they get rid of divisions soon. That will help. Honestly, I'd rather watch a team like SD, who spends and trades and keeps excitement around their roster building than a team who boasts risk-averse business models. But, grew up basically living Busch 2 so I'm stuck rooting for the Cardinals.

Another thing about that trend: top pitching prevails if you sneak in. Even the 2014 Giants relied mostly on the arm of their lone top pitcher: Bumgarner.

This "coin flip once you're in" assertion is straight up not true and I see no supporting evidence of that.
You'd rather be a Padres fan than a Cardinals fan? Why not just switch teams? To me sports is just entertainment, if you don't find the Cardinals entertaining/exciting to watch and feel it's a drag to be a fan, why not switch to a team you feel you'd enjoy more? Or just stop being a fan all together of a particular team and just watch MLB for fun?

I've never switched teams and never will, but I never rooted for a team simply because they lived closed by. I wouldn't keep following a team that I was no longer enjoying. And trust me, the Knicks and Raiders have pushed me to my limits.

Btw, sorry if this comes off like I'm coming at you. I'm not. I just trying to understand the philosophy.

Seems a lot of people on this board have grown tired of the Cardinals methods and prefer other teams methods (understandable), and don't actually like the team anymore. So I don't understand the need to keep following a team you don't enjoy. Especially when you know it's not changing.

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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: 2023 Payroll Thread

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

Magneto2.0 wrote:
January 19 23, 11:37 am
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
January 19 23, 10:33 am
AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:
January 19 23, 10:02 am
Excluding 2020 and keeping with the same timeframe as used in Bernie's article, since 2014 the WS winner has won this many regular season games:
106
88
93
108
101
103
95
88
Except none of that matters with the new seeding, which favors juggernauts. And rightfully so. I wish there was a way to punish wild card sneak-in teams even more because it makes owners act like DeWallet. I hope the other NL central teams start building juggernauts. Otherwise Cardinals keep doing this cheapo model. Really hope they get rid of divisions soon. That will help. Honestly, I'd rather watch a team like SD, who spends and trades and keeps excitement around their roster building than a team who boasts risk-averse business models. But, grew up basically living Busch 2 so I'm stuck rooting for the Cardinals.

Another thing about that trend: top pitching prevails if you sneak in. Even the 2014 Giants relied mostly on the arm of their lone top pitcher: Bumgarner.

This "coin flip once you're in" assertion is straight up not true and I see no supporting evidence of that.
You'd rather be a Padres fan than a Cardinals fan? Why not just switch teams? To me sports is just entertainment, if you don't find the Cardinals entertaining/exciting to watch and feel it's a drag to be a fan, why not switch to a team you feel you'd enjoy more? Or just stop being a fan all together of a particular team and just watch MLB for fun?

I've never switched teams and never will, but I never rooted for a team simply because they lived closed by. I wouldn't keep following a team that I was no longer enjoying. And trust me, the Knicks and Raiders have pushed me to my limits.

Btw, sorry if this comes off like I'm coming at you. I'm not. I just trying to understand the philosophy.

Seems a lot of people on this board have grown tired of the Cardinals methods and prefer other teams methods (understandable), and don't actually like the team anymore. So I don't understand the need to keep following a team you don't enjoy. Especially when you know it's not changing.
I explained it already in the post you quoted. I cannot quit fandom. In addition to growing up around Cardinals baseball, my family is all diehard. Roots in St. Louis, etc. I cannot just switch. Though I do enjoy watching Mariners as my "second" team. They have a cheapo model too but their tanking is finally paying off so I'm riding this little wave out here.

My family does not care about payroll or WAR or anything. They just see Bader make a few fancy plays and think he's a top player in baseball. I'm stupid for getting so deep into it. So aspects of the game I like are different than average fans'. Like many of us here.

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