2023 Payroll Thread

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AWvsCBsteeeerike3
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Re: 2023 Payroll Thread

Post by AWvsCBsteeeerike3 »

Big Amoco Sign wrote:
January 19 23, 10:33 am
This "coin flip once you're in" assertion is straight up not true and I see no supporting evidence of that.
I think the coinflip once you're in argument is wrong. From the numbers I posted, you have four teams winning it all that had 100+ win seasons. That's 50%. Add in the Dodgers from 2020 who were on pace for a 100+ win season, and you're more than 50%. And, going forward, I agree it becomes even less likely that a 3-6 seed will win it all. I don't even think that's debatable.

But, that's not my main question. Using haltz's numbers from a few pages back, the odds of a 1 or 2 seed that gets a 1st round bye is 16% once into the playoffs to win the WS. The odds of a 3-6 seed or whatever is 4%.

Given that, what's better:
Being a 3-6 seed and making the playoffs 100% of the time
Being a 1-2 seed and making the playoffs some undetermined amount of the time

That's not the situation the cardinals are in, exactly, but it's pretty clear what DeWitt's answer is. Which, I think we agree, is frustrating.

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haltz
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Re: 2023 Payroll Thread

Post by haltz »

AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:
January 19 23, 2:16 pm
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
January 19 23, 10:33 am
This "coin flip once you're in" assertion is straight up not true and I see no supporting evidence of that.
I think the coinflip once you're in argument is wrong. From the numbers I posted, you have four teams winning it all that had 100+ win seasons. That's 50%. Add in the Dodgers from 2020 who were on pace for a 100+ win season, and you're more than 50%. And, going forward, I agree it becomes even less likely that a 3-6 seed will win it all. I don't even think that's debatable.

But, that's not my main question. Using haltz's numbers from a few pages back, the odds of a 1 or 2 seed that gets a 1st round bye is 16% once into the playoffs to win the WS. The odds of a 3-6 seed or whatever is 4%.

Given that, what's better:
Being a 3-6 seed and making the playoffs 100% of the time
Being a 1-2 seed and making the playoffs some undetermined amount of the time

That's not the situation the cardinals are in, exactly, but it's pretty clear what DeWitt's answer is. Which, I think we agree, is frustrating.
For the record that's using a 55/45 advantage/disadvantage. If the series itself is a coinflip then it's 12.5 and 6.25%.

I forget exactly what the numbers were or how I toggled this on Fangraphs but you could see series odds for the Cards vs Phillies go from 60/40 to 50/50 once you plugged in the starters, so Wheeler and Nola made a big difference. You could also say that 60/40 is close to a coinflip but this sort of thing adds up over 3 and especially 4 rounds.
Last edited by haltz on January 19 23, 3:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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heyzeus
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Re: 2023 Payroll Thread

Post by heyzeus »

Dewitt's question is "which scenario maximizes revenue and minimizes costs." And it's pretty clear what answer his team arrived at. They're really remarkably, consistently good at keeping normalized salaries constant while doing enough to be competitive and keep the gate, and never overshooting that number. The Starbucks of baseball franchises.

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Re: 2023 Payroll Thread

Post by dmarx114 »

We just saw the first post season ever with 6 NL playoff teams. The team with the better record literally just went 0-5. The post season is absolutely a coin flip.

With that said, it seems like most people here would have been satisfied if DeWitt bought one big free agent....maybe Verlander or Turner. But what are the chances either of these guys is the difference between the wild card round and a bye? Unfortunately, if we win the division, it's tough to see us being better than the Dodgers, right? So are we better than the Mets, Phillies and Braves with JV or Turner? Most likely no. Maybe our odds go up by 30% or so?

So is DeWitt going to spend an extra $35mm-$45mm this season to have maybe a 30% chance at the extra 6.25% of winning the World Series for getting the bye?

It seems like a bad investment as an owner. Sadly, this is the reality of expanded playoff teams and coin flip playoffs.

Here's my proposal MLB:

Give the better seeded team a 1 game advantage to start each round. Make the regular season count more.

Magneto2.0
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Re: 2023 Payroll Thread

Post by Magneto2.0 »

dmarx114 wrote:
January 19 23, 4:17 pm
We just saw the first post season ever with 6 NL playoff teams. The team with the better record literally just went 0-5. The post season is absolutely a coin flip.

With that said, it seems like most people here would have been satisfied if DeWitt bought one big free agent....maybe Verlander or Turner. But what are the chances either of these guys is the difference between the wild card round and a bye? Unfortunately, if we win the division, it's tough to see us being better than the Dodgers, right? So are we better than the Mets, Phillies and Braves with JV or Turner? Most likely no. Maybe our odds go up by 30% or so?

So is DeWitt going to spend an extra $35mm-$45mm this season to have maybe a 30% chance at the extra 6.25% of winning the World Series for getting the bye?

It seems like a bad investment as an owner. Sadly, this is the reality of expanded playoff teams and coin flip playoffs.

Here's my proposal MLB:

Give the better seeded team a 1 game advantage to start each round. Make the regular season count more.
We're better than the Dodgers right now (or at least comparable). We clearly better than the Phillies, they have no depth, can't play defense and lineup has holes.

I think Turner or Verlander puts us with the Braves and Mets.

dmarx114
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Re: 2023 Payroll Thread

Post by dmarx114 »

Magneto2.0 wrote:
January 19 23, 4:22 pm
dmarx114 wrote:
January 19 23, 4:17 pm
We just saw the first post season ever with 6 NL playoff teams. The team with the better record literally just went 0-5. The post season is absolutely a coin flip.

With that said, it seems like most people here would have been satisfied if DeWitt bought one big free agent....maybe Verlander or Turner. But what are the chances either of these guys is the difference between the wild card round and a bye? Unfortunately, if we win the division, it's tough to see us being better than the Dodgers, right? So are we better than the Mets, Phillies and Braves with JV or Turner? Most likely no. Maybe our odds go up by 30% or so?

So is DeWitt going to spend an extra $35mm-$45mm this season to have maybe a 30% chance at the extra 6.25% of winning the World Series for getting the bye?

It seems like a bad investment as an owner. Sadly, this is the reality of expanded playoff teams and coin flip playoffs.

Here's my proposal MLB:

Give the better seeded team a 1 game advantage to start each round. Make the regular season count more.
We're better than the Dodgers right now (or at least comparable). We clearly better than the Phillies, they have no depth, can't play defense and lineup has holes.

I think Turner or Verlander puts us with the Braves and Mets.
How did we make up 18 games on the Dodgers?

Magneto2.0
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Re: 2023 Payroll Thread

Post by Magneto2.0 »

dmarx114 wrote:
January 19 23, 4:24 pm
Magneto2.0 wrote:
January 19 23, 4:22 pm
dmarx114 wrote:
January 19 23, 4:17 pm
We just saw the first post season ever with 6 NL playoff teams. The team with the better record literally just went 0-5. The post season is absolutely a coin flip.

With that said, it seems like most people here would have been satisfied if DeWitt bought one big free agent....maybe Verlander or Turner. But what are the chances either of these guys is the difference between the wild card round and a bye? Unfortunately, if we win the division, it's tough to see us being better than the Dodgers, right? So are we better than the Mets, Phillies and Braves with JV or Turner? Most likely no. Maybe our odds go up by 30% or so?

So is DeWitt going to spend an extra $35mm-$45mm this season to have maybe a 30% chance at the extra 6.25% of winning the World Series for getting the bye?

It seems like a bad investment as an owner. Sadly, this is the reality of expanded playoff teams and coin flip playoffs.

Here's my proposal MLB:

Give the better seeded team a 1 game advantage to start each round. Make the regular season count more.
We're better than the Dodgers right now (or at least comparable). We clearly better than the Phillies, they have no depth, can't play defense and lineup has holes.

I think Turner or Verlander puts us with the Braves and Mets.
How did we make up 18 games on the Dodgers?
Seasons aren't a 1:1 like that, but they lost a lot this offseason.

Trea Turner
Justin Turner
Tyler Anderson
Craig Kimbrel
Andrew Heaney
Tommy Kahnle
Cody Bellinger

I haven't done all the math, but that's probably about 15 WAR leaving the team and maybe 5 WAR added counting all their moves? And the Turner and Anderson leaving are real big blows. Their second or third best player (depending on perspective) and arguably their best starter last season. And Buehler is going to miss the entire 2023 season.

While the Cardinals made one of the biggest leaps at any position of catcher from Contreras to Molina.

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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: 2023 Payroll Thread

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

dmarx114 wrote:
January 19 23, 4:17 pm
We just saw the first post season ever with 6 NL playoff teams. The team with the better record literally just went 0-5. The post season is absolutely a coin flip.
Astros won. Best team in AL, second overall. Best piching.

Coin flip...no.

Again, exceptions aren't rules.

And Cardinals are in trouble. Their pitching was 17th last year. And they didn't change it this offseason really.

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Re: 2023 Payroll Thread

Post by Socnorb11 »

I don't care about Trea Turner, but this team can't get over the top without a front-line starter. They HAVE to make that happen, and they have the resources.

Montgomery isn't a front-line starter, but even adding him last year brought a boost to the rotation that changed the dynamic of the team. Adding an ace would be such a big deal. Gotta do it, even if it's at the trade deadline.

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Re: 2023 Payroll Thread

Post by Magneto2.0 »

Socnorb11 wrote:
January 19 23, 5:54 pm
I don't care about Trea Turner, but this team can't get over the top without a front-line starter. They HAVE to make that happen, and they have the resources.

Montgomery isn't a front-line starter, but even adding him last year brought a boost to the rotation that changed the dynamic of the team. Adding an ace would be such a big deal. Gotta do it, even if it's at the trade deadline.
Should have done it in the offseason. I don't see how they get one via trade. There's not many aces in baseball and even fewer that are likely to be available since most are on contending teams.

There best shot at one is the Guardians fall out of contention and they take a run at Bieber, but that seems highly unlikely considering how terrible the AL Central is. Or maybe Sale has a comeback season and they can make a run at him. I don't see who else is realistic.

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