I think the coinflip once you're in argument is wrong. From the numbers I posted, you have four teams winning it all that had 100+ win seasons. That's 50%. Add in the Dodgers from 2020 who were on pace for a 100+ win season, and you're more than 50%. And, going forward, I agree it becomes even less likely that a 3-6 seed will win it all. I don't even think that's debatable.Big Amoco Sign wrote: ↑January 19 23, 10:33 amThis "coin flip once you're in" assertion is straight up not true and I see no supporting evidence of that.
But, that's not my main question. Using haltz's numbers from a few pages back, the odds of a 1 or 2 seed that gets a 1st round bye is 16% once into the playoffs to win the WS. The odds of a 3-6 seed or whatever is 4%.
Given that, what's better:
Being a 3-6 seed and making the playoffs 100% of the time
Being a 1-2 seed and making the playoffs some undetermined amount of the time
That's not the situation the cardinals are in, exactly, but it's pretty clear what DeWitt's answer is. Which, I think we agree, is frustrating.