MLB Award Finalist

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NDark
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Re: MLB Award Finalist

Post by NDark »

Big Amoco Sign wrote:
November 8 22, 10:48 am
CardsofSTL wrote:
November 8 22, 10:36 am
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
November 7 22, 11:33 pm
Manny deserves it. Edges out Nolan playing in a pitcher park that kills righties and just as good with the glove. Goldy has the hitting but choked hard in September.
It's MVP not player of the month for September.
I know? Manny still tops both in WAR.

I am just saying a pedestrian September would have kept the award. Goldy also having a out-of-character bad year defensively (using DRS/OAA/whatever you want) didn't help either. (Gold glove nomination be damned)
From what I see Manny had 6.8 WAR in 2022. Goldy had 7.8 and Nado had 7.9.

dmarx114
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Re: MLB Award Finalist

Post by dmarx114 »

NDark wrote:
November 8 22, 3:32 pm
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
November 8 22, 10:48 am
CardsofSTL wrote:
November 8 22, 10:36 am
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
November 7 22, 11:33 pm
Manny deserves it. Edges out Nolan playing in a pitcher park that kills righties and just as good with the glove. Goldy has the hitting but choked hard in September.
It's MVP not player of the month for September.
I know? Manny still tops both in WAR.

I am just saying a pedestrian September would have kept the award. Goldy also having a out-of-character bad year defensively (using DRS/OAA/whatever you want) didn't help either. (Gold glove nomination be damned)
From what I see Manny had 6.8 WAR in 2022. Goldy had 7.8 and Nado had 7.9.
fWar vs bWar

I think any of the 3 are deserving. "Choking hard in September" shouldn't disqualify someone from winning. The award is based on 162 games, not the final 30.

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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: MLB Award Finalist

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

dmarx114 wrote:
November 8 22, 3:47 pm
The award is based on 162 games, not the final 30.
No one said it wasn't?

Just saying why it makes picking Goldy tough. It was an unusual month but maybe it was samples balancing out--to the point of the people putting words in my mouth (constant thing here). It's just a factor. Just like his defense or other things that drag down his overall value. I didn't say "THE" reason.

And yes I am using fWAR as it seems more well-rounded using wRC+, RAA, among other factors. Goldy and Arenado top Manny in bWAR, and it'll be interesting who comes out on top and if voters use one over the other.

Magneto2.0
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Re: MLB Award Finalist

Post by Magneto2.0 »

Big Amoco Sign wrote:
November 8 22, 4:24 pm
dmarx114 wrote:
November 8 22, 3:47 pm
The award is based on 162 games, not the final 30.
No one said it wasn't?

Just saying why it makes picking Goldy tough. It was an unusual month but maybe it was samples balancing out--to the point of the people putting words in my mouth (constant thing here). It's just a factor. Just like his defense or other things that drag down his overall value. I didn't say "THE" reason.

And yes I am using fWAR as it seems more well-rounded using wRC+, RAA, among other factors. Goldy and Arenado top Manny in bWAR, and it'll be interesting who comes out on top and if voters use one over the other.
WAR is the start of a discussion, not the end of it. It's a good all encompassing measure of performance, but it's not a "game ender".

Also, WAR is not meant to be taken to the last decimal point. There is no difference in a 7.1 or a 7.4 WAR.

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Re: MLB Award Finalist

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Famous Mortimer
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Re: MLB Award Finalist

Post by Famous Mortimer »

dmarx114 wrote:
November 8 22, 3:47 pm
I think any of the 3 are deserving. "Choking hard in September" shouldn't disqualify someone from winning. The award is based on 162 games, not the final 30.
Recency bias is a thing, though. And the end of the season (more than 30 games, honestly) counts too.

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Re: MLB Award Finalist

Post by cardsfantx »

I think we’re exaggerating Goldy’s end of the year, as he had such a terrible postseason, and that’s what is fresh in our minds. But the ballots were in before the postseason…

If we’re cherry picking months of the season, then Manny had a worse month (July), than any month goldy had (not counting October as he only had 7 ABs in October)

Manny’s worst month July- 202/279/415; 694 OPS

Goldy’s worst month September- 253/333/402; 736 OPS

So goldy never had a month as bad as manny did this year, even with his struggles down the stretch.

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Famous Mortimer
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Re: MLB Award Finalist

Post by Famous Mortimer »

cardsfantx wrote:
November 8 22, 5:47 pm
I think we’re exaggerating Goldy’s end of the year, as he had such a terrible postseason, and that’s what is fresh in our minds. But the ballots were in before the postseason…

If we’re cherry picking months of the season, then Manny had a worse month (July), than any month goldy had (not counting October as he only had 7 ABs in October)

Manny’s worst month July- 202/279/415; 694 OPS

Goldy’s worst month September- 253/333/402; 736 OPS

So goldy never had a month as bad as manny did this year, even with his struggles down the stretch.
No-one's cherry-picking months - just mentioning why recent events weigh more heavily on peoples' minds. Also, Machado was still great at a premium defensive position during that down month, whereas Goldschmidt was okay-ish at a non-premium defensive position. There's a response to everything.

I still hope Goldschmidt wins, obviously, but I wouldn't be surprised if Machado does.

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Re: MLB Award Finalist

Post by dmarx114 »

Famous Mortimer wrote:
November 8 22, 5:21 pm
dmarx114 wrote:
November 8 22, 3:47 pm
I think any of the 3 are deserving. "Choking hard in September" shouldn't disqualify someone from winning. The award is based on 162 games, not the final 30.
Recency bias is a thing, though. And the end of the season (more than 30 games, honestly) counts too.
I agree that Goldy's poor September could be a reason he doesn't win.

But I am saying it shouldn't be a reason why someone doesn't vote him number 1.

Games in April count as much as games in September.

And when someone says Goldy shouldn't win because he choked hard in September, I strongly disagree with that line of thinking, even if actual voters might agree with it.

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Re: MLB Award Finalist

Post by heyzeus »

It seems pretty unusual to me that there are three players so closely clustered in WAR, two of whom are teammates, and two others of whom are third basemen who excel at both phases of the game. Not to mention the fairly significant bWAR v. fWAR differences. I still think Goldschmidt wins it because he was so dominant for so much of the season.

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