Mark Polishuk's NL Central comments

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mikechamp
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Mark Polishuk's NL Central comments

Post by mikechamp »

These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' Mark Polishuk that occurred on November 13.

Same amount of Q&As as last time. I included 3 bonus Q&As: one about adding excitement to free agency, one about the effect of limited pickoffs, and one about the effect of the balanced schedule on intra-division trading.

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://www.jotcast.com/chat/mlbtr-live-chat-14376.html

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Would Vaughn Grissom be a good starting point for Corbin Burnes?

Mark Polishuk
That would certainly help spark trade talks. It isn't yet clear how open the Brewers would actually be to moving Burnes (or Woodruff), and it's worth nothing that Atlanta's farm system is now a little thin due to trades and graduated players like Grissom.
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At the tail end of Heyward's contract, is Hoyer too scared to snag a SS if contract length goes 6+ w/ no team options?

Mark Polishuk
One bad contract shouldn't scare a big-market team (or any team, really) away from ever signing another pricey long-term deal in the future.
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Any chance that Votto is moved? Could see another Mariners/Reds trade, especially if the M's don't want to pay Turner the $$$.

Mark Polishuk
Votto has a full no-trade clause, so unless he changes his stance on playing in Cincinnati for life, he's staying put.
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For the love of all things sacred in the World, please explain why the Cardinals haven't already shot down the idea of Contreras at catcher next year. Why would they even consider a 30+ year old, hitter first (barely) catcher who isn't great at catching? Murphy is heading to the Lou, right?

Mark Polishuk
Technically, executives aren't allowed to specifically say "we're not pursuing this one particular free agent." And, the Cards may indeed be considering Contreras as a valid option, since he's a good player.

As other reports have speculated, however, I tend to think someone like Christian Vazquez is a better fit, if not a Murphy trade.
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If you have to guess which catcher will STL get? Contreras, Jansen, Kirk or Vazquez?

Mark Polishuk
Of that group, I lean towards Vazquez. He only costs money, whereas Contreras costs money and draft pick compensation (via the QO), and Kirk or Jansen would require a notable trade return.
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Should the Pirates trade Bryan Reynolds? Will they?

Mark Polishuk
Doesn't seem like they will. The "should" question is trickier, but I lean more towards keeping him and making an effort to contend by 2024.
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Quintana to the Phillies? Makes a lot of sense.

Mark Polishuk
Philly seems like a good fit, indeed.
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In the post-Pujols and Molina era, it seems the Cards’ can’t miss prospects are underwhelming. Do the Cards have a legit star in the minors now?

Mark Polishuk
Potentially several, with Jordan Walker being the best of the bunch.

To be fair, "superstar" players are naturally really hard to find. The Cardinals' ability to generate a steady pipeline of MLB-caliber regulars is very impressive, even if few have become true stars. Plus, the Cards have done well to package their prospects for actual stars like Arenado or Goldschmidt.
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What do you believe the total Cubs spending would be this off-season? Over or under total contracts $300 million?

Mark Polishuk
Leaning towards the over. Last winter, they stuck mostly to shorter-term deals (except for Suzuki and Stroman) and ended up spending around $213MM.

Being more aggressive this winter would likely put them over the $300MM mark. But, we maybe shouldn't rule out a redux of last offseason... one or two bigger-money deals and then a ton of one- or two-year contracts.
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I do believe JV comes back to the Astros. With that in mind, they most likely will deal a SP. Urquidy seems to be the most obvious. The Cardinals seem like a good match. Would Nootbar or Yepez be good fits for a trade for Urquidy?

Mark Polishuk
I'm higher on Nootbaar than Yepez. A Lars-for-Urquidy 1-for-1 probably doesn't work, but it's an interesting framework for a trade.

Though there is the small fact that the Cardinals and Astros hate each other, and probably aren't in a great mood to talk trades.
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If Seattle takes on all of Yelich's contract, could we get Burnes also with giving up the farm?

Mark Polishuk
Yelich has a full no-trade clause, so he'd have to sign off on this idea first. And while the Mariners have some money to spend, doesn't seem likely that they'd use most/all of that spending capacity on absorbing Yelich's contract. Plus, Burnes isn't exactly cheap himself.
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Besides Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Pablo Lopez, and Bieber (clubs say 3 of those are not being traded), is there anyone else Texas could target via trade?

Mark Polishuk
Since the Rangers are willing to spend money, they could use that space to absorb a bad contract, and thus help grease the wheels towards a pitcher trade. Nothing on the level of that Burnes/Yelich proposal, but hypothetically.... get something good back from the D'Backs while taking on Bumgarner's contract? Bruce Bochy might like a reunion with his former playoff ace.
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Any chance there’s something MLB can do to make free agency more exciting like it is in the NBA and NFL where once they are able to guys start signing immediately?

Mark Polishuk
I prefer the "longer" offseason, since it means a big move can happen at pretty much any time. In other sports, 80% of the big signings happen in the first two days of free agency, leaving to a long lean period for the rest of the offseason. That isn't great if you, say, work for a sports rumors website.
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With the limits on pickoffs at first base next year, do you expect the number of stolen bases to increase a lot?

Mark Polishuk
Absolutely.
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With the more balanced schedule, do you think we will see less of the premium put on trading within the division?

Mark Polishuk
Maybe a little, but not to any great extent.
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MrCrowesGarden
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Re: Mark Polishuk's NL Central comments

Post by MrCrowesGarden »

Vazquez is like the Steven Matz of catching, except even worse because there are better, cheaper (in terms of $) available for prospects while you have one of the most loaded farm systems in baseball to use.

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Radbird
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Re: Mark Polishuk's NL Central comments

Post by Radbird »

MrCrowesGarden wrote:
November 14 22, 1:37 pm
Vazquez is like the Steven Matz of catching, except even worse because there are better, cheaper (in terms of $) available for prospects while you have one of the most loaded farm systems in baseball to use.
So book it?

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Re: Mark Polishuk's NL Central comments

Post by heyzeus »

Radbird wrote:
November 14 22, 5:21 pm
MrCrowesGarden wrote:
November 14 22, 1:37 pm
Vazquez is like the Steven Matz of catching, except even worse because there are better, cheaper (in terms of $) available for prospects while you have one of the most loaded farm systems in baseball to use.
So book it?
I would bet at least $5 on Vazquez being a Cardinal in a few months.

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mikechamp
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Re: Mark Polishuk's NL Central comments

Post by mikechamp »

heyzeus wrote:
November 15 22, 10:15 am
Radbird wrote:
November 14 22, 5:21 pm
MrCrowesGarden wrote:
November 14 22, 1:37 pm
Vazquez is like the Steven Matz of catching, except even worse because there are better, cheaper (in terms of $) available for prospects while you have one of the most loaded farm systems in baseball to use.
So book it?
I would bet at least $5 on Vazquez being a Cardinal in a few months.
I'll see your $5 and raise you $5.

Wait, that's not how this works, is it?

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Famous Mortimer
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Re: Mark Polishuk's NL Central comments

Post by Famous Mortimer »

I'd be down for a pool, where we all nominate, say:

1. Players we think will be Cardinals in 2023
2. Players that the Cardinals are going to trade away or release

and whoever is most accurate wins whatever is in the pot.

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