Steve Adams' NL Central comments

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mikechamp
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Steve Adams' NL Central comments

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These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' Steve Adams that occurred on December 15. (If you like him, you can find him on Twitter @Adams_Steve.)

A lot of questions for a Steve Adams chat. Probably helps he went for 90 minutes today. I included 2 bonus Q&As; one about the long contracts and another about waiting for next year's free agents.

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://live.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with ... 14607.html

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Do you see the Cubs making any big splashes?

Steve Adams
I consider the Cubs and the Twins the two likeliest teams to sign Dansby Swanson at this point. I think I lean slightly toward Minnesota doing so, rather than Chicago, but Swanson/Cubs is a totally viable outcome in my view.
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Is Trey Mancini a fit for the Brewers (play some RF and 1B vs. LHP)?  What type of contract will it take (years and $)?

Steve Adams
He'd work there, although this is a skill set the Brewers don't value that much. He's a defensively limited slugger on the short side of a platoon. In general, low-OBP sluggers aren't the Brewers' favorite, hence the trade of Hunter Renfroe. This team non-tendered Chris Carter after he led the NL in home runs, traded away Khris Davis, etc.

Mancini is a nice on-paper fit, but I guess, given the history with this profile, I'd only expect it if he wound up signing for like a year and $5-6MM. I think he can do better than that but do expect he'll be capped at two years, with one year the likelier landing spot.
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How much money did Nolan Arenado leave on the table by not opting out? $350 million dollars?

Steve Adams
Well he's still getting $144MM, so "leaving 350 on the table" would mean he'd have signed for 494MM, haha, which I don't think was happening.

That said, I was predicting over $200MM for Arenado even before the market exploded. I thought he had $60MM+ to gain if he opted out, and that was adhering to the recent free-agent trends that saw teams typically not willing to pay position players beyond their age-37 season.

Knowing what we know now, I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest a team might've signed him through his age-40 season at a lower AAV... he might've left more than $100MM on the table (on top of the $144MM he's already guaranteed).
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Who signs Rodon and for how much?

Steve Adams
Yankees, Padres and Twins make the most sense here -- Minnesota mostly just because there's pressure to do something after getting spurned by Correa. That said, this front office has been pretty risk-averse with pitchers, so I think it's likelier they go after Swanson if they take one of the big two SPs.

I'm picking the Yankees at something like $180-190MM over 6-7 years, but neither San Diego nor Minnesota would surprise me. I don't think the Cardinals are going to these heights.
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I know it's not likely but is there much of a chance that the Cardinals upgrade at SS? Paul DeJong has looked awful the last two seasons.

Steve Adams
Paul DeJong isn't going to be their shortstop. Tommy Edman is.
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Do you see the Cardinals as being done this offseason? No pitching help, left handed bat or DH.

Steve Adams
It's mid-December and there's 100-something free agents still unsigned, plus dozens of trades yet to come. There's no reason to think they're done, and they got off to a good start by signing Contreras at a totally reasonable price. I'd be pleased, not frustrated. I never expected the Cardinals to make a splash at shortstop, even when the Dansby rumors first popped up.

I get that Cardinals fans are sick of DeJong, but at this point he's just a guy who'll come to camp and vie for a bench job. If he doesn't hit, I'd imagine they'll just DFA him.
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Thanks for the chat! Completely aware the Pirates aren’t going to spend much this off-season but shouldn’t there be a little more of a push for some Veteran guys to help support this extremely young and fluid roster?

Steve Adams
They've signed Carlos Santana, Vince Velasquez, Jarlin Garcia... will probably add a catcher. I thought they might have more of an appetite to make a bigger move and went out on a limb with Benintendi to Pittsburgh in my picks on our Top 50 list, but that seems like it was probably too aggressive now.
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Trey Mancini to the Cubs makes a lot of sense.

Steve Adams
I would agree with this.
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So how do you grade out the Murphy trade?

Steve Adams
I think it's nonsensical to grade a trade so soon after it's happened. "Trade Grade" reaction columns and such are disingenuous.

I think the Brewers did a great job to get Contreras and a pair of potentially useful relievers for Esteury Ruiz, for instance, even though I personally like Ruiz a bit more than a lot of people who are ripping the trade for the A's.

I don't think the A's got enough, at first glance, but that doesn't mean it'll bear out that way. It means the A's value their players they received differently than I do. I remember thinking they should've done better than "only" Marcus Semien and Chris Bassitt for Jeff Samardzija, which was a popular take in the wake of that trade.

Whoops.
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it looks like all the potential TOR catching trade partners have diminished to 0. Is there anyone else that needs a catcher?

Steve Adams
I don't agree with that at all. Cubs, D-backs, Astros, Giants, Rays/Red Sox (if you're dealing within the division) all could use catching help.
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It seems notable that neither Oakland or Atlanta seem to have demanded Keston Hiura be part of their return. Does he have any major trade value left? Or will the Brewers end up trading him to the Nationals for a middle reliever in July?

Steve Adams
Hiura's value is down to the point that I wouldn't expect him to be a meaningful part of the return in a Murphy trade. He's an upside-based throw-in at this point, for me, and we're talking long-shot upside at that, given his lack of defensive value and persistent strikeout issues.

I do think he could be moved for a reliever or something this summer, sure.
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Is Dansby Swanson really a necessary move for the Cubs? I don't see him moving the dial much for them, particularly with Hoerner already at SS.

Steve Adams
Don't look at it as an upgrade at shortstop. Look at it as an upgrade for the roster. If you think Swanson is a 4-5 win player at SS (which is reasonable), then you're just pushing another 4-5 win player over to 2B in Hoerner, at the expense of Madrigal, who's really shown very little so far.

Signing Dansby is more of a Madrigal replacement than a Hoerner replacement.

Yes, he'd move the needle and make the Cubs better.
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Is Pittsburgh’s asking price for Reynolds still “any organization's top 3 prospects”? And could he be had for Luciano, Matos, & anybody else not named Kyle Harrison?

Steve Adams
My general response on Reynolds offers is basically, "Think of the two prospects you absolutely don't want to trade. Start with them, and then add another couple pieces."
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Who will be competitive first? The Nats or Pirates?

Steve Adams
Pirates are a lot further along in the rebuild.
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In the MLBTR article about Jeter Downs being released by Boston, there was a mention of him having two more option years available. I have been around long enough to remember when prospects had a certain number of options. When did that change? Also, any chance the Dodgers might try to trade for Jeter Downs?

Steve Adams
Players have three option years. The Red Sox DFA'ed him with two of those options remaining.

It's not different. I also don't think Downs is going to have a huge market. Someone like the Nats or Tigers or Pirates might claim him and take a look in Spring Training, but again, this is someone who's batted .193/.292/.368 with a 30% strikeout rate in two Triple-A seasons.
His DFA shouldn't be a big surprise.
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If you think a Reynolds trade requires TWO untouchable prospects and a few others, what do you see with a trade for Ohtani? 1/2 team ownership or something close?

Steve Adams
It's a moot point since the Angels have openly said he won't be traded this offseason.

Besides, you seem to be comparing the returns based on the quality of player. Ohtani's obviously a better and more valuable player, but a trade for Reynolds is three years of him -- and those three years probably cost fewer dollars than one year of Ohtani.
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Why are contracts now SO much longer than predicted? Are teams just doing that to lower the AAV?

Steve Adams
In a word: yes.
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Is it possible some teams are holding off on a big signing because they are waiting for next year with Devers and Machado (if he opts out).

Steve Adams
Machado's going to opt out, barring something disastrous happening.

I don't know that any teams are strictly "waiting" on Devers/Machado, though. It's a pretty foolhardy strategy to just deliberately eschew upgrades in hopes of signing a player you don't even know will make it to free agency. Passing on Correa, Bogaerts, etc. -- only to see Devers sign an extension this spring, would be a catastrophically bad outcome.

That said... I also find it possible that, say, the Dodgers are taking this year to try to reset their luxury-tax penalties and plan to stay under the tax threshold. Ditto the Red Sox.
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