Steve Adams' NL Central comments

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mikechamp
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Steve Adams' NL Central comments

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These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' Steve Adams that occurred on January 24. (If you like him, you can find him on Twitter @Adams_Steve.)

A good range of questions, and 2 bonus Q&As: one about tax amounts and one about the amount of free agents.

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://live.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with ... 14902.html

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Brandon Williamson crack the Reds' rotation out of Spring Training?

Steve Adams
He'll have a chance to compete for it, but his command was pretty dreadful in both Double-A and Triple-A last year. The top four spots are probably locked in with Lodolo, Greene, Ashcraft and Luke Weaver.

Luis Cessa, Justin Dunn and Levi Stoudt are competing alongside Williamson for the fifth... I would probably lean Cessa or Stoudt, personally, but that's just a gut feeling and it'll obviously come down to spring performance, health of the whole group, etc.
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Does William Contreras stick at catcher?

Steve Adams
The Brewers have done a good job of really improving the defense of some catchers in recent years. I think that was a good landing spot for him and that Milwaukee fans will come away from the trade pretty happy.
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Who plays 1st for the Reds if Votto is on the IL to start the season?

Steve Adams
Could just put Myers there, or Stephenson on days he's not starting behind the plate.
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If Jack Flaherty performs well this year, do you see the Cards extending him or trading him?

Steve Adams
I just see him becoming a free agent at the end of the season and probably signing elsewhere.
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Did Mo just give up or get tired? One big move for Cards, then crickets ….

Steve Adams
I'm surprised the Cardinals haven't done more, but there's still several good relievers out there, and I think the Cards really make a lot of sense as a trade partner for any team with a starter they're willing to listen on. As I wrote last week, they have a surplus at basically every position:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/ ... chers.html
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Who will get playing time at 3rd for the Cubs this season?

Steve Adams
Wisdom, Morel and (to a lesser extent) McKinstry.
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What would it take to get Houser and Hiura from MIL? I feel like the sinker-baller would make sense for us and Coors might help resurrect Hiura's potential some.

Steve Adams
I don't have much faith that Hiura's ever going to hit. His mechanics are all over the place, he's never consistently made contact, and he isn't a viable defender basically anywhere.

Houser can probably be had for some optionable pitching help, a la the Renfroe deal. (Not the exact same iteration, just pointing to those Janson Junk types of assets.)

I think Houser would be a decent pickup for the Rox, but really, any decent starter would be. That staff is ugly and, as always, lacking in depth because pitchers don't want to sign there.
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Do you think Madrigal gets much playing time at third this year?

Steve Adams
I don't think he has the arm for it.
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Can you explain the difference between payroll and luxury tax? Why are they two different amounts?

Steve Adams
Payroll is whatever you're paying a player in a current year, period. Add up the costs of the players' salaries, and that's your cash payroll.

Luxury tax is calculated based on the average annual value of those contracts. So a three-year, $30MM deal paying a guy $6MM in 2023 but $12MM in each of 2024-25 still counts as a $10MM hit.

Going based off AAV prevents teams from just deferring money down the line to dodge the tax.

Player benefits and teams' contributions to the new pre-arbitration bonus pool also count against the luxury tax.
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Do you think there will be fewer free agents in coming years due to these long contracts?

Steve Adams
Opposite. I think there will generally be larger classes because even mid-level and third-tier free agents are regularly getting opt-out clauses now.
And a lot of teams prefer short-term deals outside the very top of the market.
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