Steve Adams' NL Central comments

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mikechamp
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Steve Adams' NL Central comments

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These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' Steve Adams that occurred on February 7. (If you like him, you can find him on Twitter @Adams_Steve.)

A lot of interesting questions this week. 2 bonus Q&As: one about invites and the other about projections.

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://live.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with ... 15013.html

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Hi Steve-the Pirates are said to want pitching back in a Brian Reynolds trade. What do you suspect we would we have needed to add to Kyle Muller, Royber Salinas, Justin Yeager, Freddy Tarnok to get a deal done? Also, don’t you feel we would be a better team with Reynolds and Contreras than Murphy and our current LF options?

Steve Adams
I don't think the package you have listed is even in the ballpark for Reynolds, honestly. They may want high-end pitching, but the Braves are lacking in that, so I have to think things would've started with Vaughn Grissom, then add multiple arms on top of that. Not like Pittsburgh's set at second base by any stretch.

In general, I was surprised to see the Braves even get Murphy, as their farm is pretty depleted from years of prospect graduation, trades and picking near the back of the first round (because they're good every year). Plus the lingering effects of the Coppolella sanctions.

That they were able to get Murphy was a testament to the front office's creativity, but the A's have weird valuations of prospects and most pundits and people within the game I've asked don't seem to like the return they got for Murphy. I think acquiring Reynolds would've been harder, and I'm not convinced the Braves with Reynolds+Contreras are markedly better than the current iteration (especially if Reynolds indeed cost Grissom, as I would expect).
Sean Murphy is awesome. I'd just be happy you got him, ha. I don't think Reynolds is going anywhere before the season and maybe not at the deadline, either.
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Can Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo be the best 1-2 punch in the NL Central this year?

Steve Adams
Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff is pretty tough to beat. I quite like Lodolo, though, and if Greene can improve his command within the zone, they're going to be an awesome pairing (health permitting, of course; they've both had some injuries already pop up).
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With the Orioles using 2023 to see what prospects are legitimate big leaguers, do you see them packaging prospects at the trade deadline in order land a controllable #1 or #2 starter or do they wait it out with the free agent pitchers next offseason? Outside of Ohtani, Urias and Nola, there really isn't a legitimate ace in the group.

Steve Adams
Whatever top-end pitchers are available via trade are probably going to have minimal club control remaining. Sure, if things go horribly wrong in Cleveland or Milwaukee, there'll be rumors about Bieber, Burnes, Woodruff ... but for the O's to trade several high-end minor leaguers for 1.5 seasons of an arm of that caliber would be pretty antithetical to how they've operated over the course of the rebuild.
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Is it just me or have there been less trades this offseason compared to years past?

Steve Adams
It's been a quieter trade market for sure. Not as many aggressively tanking clubs now that the O's, Pirates, etc. are kind of moving out of the pure rebuild phase. And the A's already gutted most of the roster prior to the current offseason.

Still think we'll get a handful of semi-notable trades between now and Opening Day, but the volume and the impact have both been lesser this winter.
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I saw yesterday on ESPN the Cardinals signed a shortstop to a minor league deal. Why is it not reported on MLBTR?

Steve Adams
As I mentioned earlier, we don't really cover all the minor league deals that don't contain invites to MLB camp. Arquimedes Gamboa didn't get a big league invite. I was surprised the Cardinals even took the time to announce it individually. Most teams don't even bother announcing minor league deals that don't contain NRIs.
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Unpopular opinion: When the Brewers finally do trade 1 of Burnes/Woodruff, they should package him with Yelich. The return will be obviously quite diminished, but prospects might help a team, while a sunk contract will seriously hurt a small market team like the Brewers. Thoughts?

Steve Adams
I think giving away a pitcher like Burnes or Woodruff in order to get rid of someone else's contract is a pretty poor way to run a team.

And who's to say that money is going to be wisely reinvested? The Rockies paid Nolan Arenado to go away and then turned around to give $182MM to Kris Bryant.

Now they have practically nothing to show for Arenado, they're paying part of his salary in St. Louis and also paying Bryant.

I agree that there's a strong likelihood the Brewers will eventually trade one of Burnes or Woodruff. Maybe both. I don't think there's any way they'll attach Yelich to that to try to spare themselves.
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What are your thoughts on Lars Nootbaar? Do you anticipate him hitting atop the Cardinals order as he did at the end of last year? The Cardinals have had several outfielders hit the ground running only to then come back to earth and struggle for various reasons.

Steve Adams
I love Nootbaar and am more bullish on him than on some of their other recent young outfielders because I think the huge walk rate and solid defense provide a higher floor than some of the past names, and the hard-hit/batted-ball profile in general is as exciting -- if not more -- than the rest of their recent young OFs.

Nootbaar might be someone whose baseball-card numbers/fantasy baseball stats don't really capture the whole picture of his value particularly well -- the kind that some fans will call overrated because OBP and defense factor so heavily into his value. Love the dude though and think he's gonna be a really nice player in STL.
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Whats going on with Alex Reyes?? It feels like he would be the right pitcher for the Dodgers to fix.

Steve Adams
He's thrown 159 total innings, MLB and minors combined, since Opening Day 2018. I don't think that's something that a team can just fix.

A lot of people want to fixate on Reyes as this super appealing former top prospect, but it's not how teams view him at this point after all the injuries. He didn't throw a pitch in 2022 because of May shoulder surgery.

If he's holding out hope for an MLB roster spot, I'm not surprised teams have balked. Maybe once camp opens and a team can free up a spot by putting someone on the 60-day IL, they'll take a shot on Reyes.

At this point, it's possible the Chafins, Moores, Smiths, etc. of the world are just waiting on that, too. Easier to sign a guy when you don't have to DFA someone to put them on the roster.
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Who is closing for the Cubs in 2023? Boxberger? Estrada?

Steve Adams
Seems like something they'll sort out this spring and early in the season. I imagine they'll cycle through a few options. Brandon Hughes did a nice job last year but also had shaky command and was pretty homer-prone. Boxberger will probably get mixed in a bit.

If the plan is for Adbert Alzolay to be a full-time reliever, he might be my pick. Small sample down the stretch last year but he looked good out of the 'pen and they don't have an obvious rotation spot for him right now.
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Do the Pirates make a playoff push this year or when would you expect them back to 2014 form?

Steve Adams
No, not in '23. I could see the '24 Pirates being in a similar spot to the '23 D-backs or Orioles, though, which is a good place to be considering the Buccos are in a far weaker division than either Baltimore or Arizona.
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What's the difference between a big league invite and non-roster invite? Is it just that the latter isn't on the 40-man?

Steve Adams
Yup.
Major League signees go on the 40-man roster. Minor league deals with non-roster invites head to spring training with the big leaguers and compete for a job on the 40-man.
Not all minor league deals contain NRIs, either, though we rarely cover the ones that don't have an NRI.
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How do feel about projections?

Steve Adams
Like, in general? They're a decent big-picture tool, but they're inherently never going to predict a breakout. There's little sense in getting mad that ZiPS isn't predicting a 39-homer season for Oneil Cruz or something, for instance. If projection systems were predicting tons of 99th-percentile outcomes like that, they'd be far less accurate and less useful.
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