BP - Prospects That Can Break Your Hearts 2012: Cardinals

Talk about the Cardinals minor league baseball
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Magneto2.0
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BP - Prospects That Can Break Your Hearts 2012: Cardinals

Post by Magneto2.0 »

I'll post a couple, here's the full article: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... leid=17195
Prospect #1: OF Oscar Taveras
Background with Player: Industry sources
Who: Signed for a low six-figure bonus in 2008, Oscar Taveras has blossomed into one of the minor’s purest hitters, with offensive projections that could make him a perennial All-Star at the major league level. With a violent, torque-heavy swing and an aggressive approach, the early word on Taveras was that the same characteristics that allowed him to hit .386 in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League would ultimately be his downfall against superior pitching, the kind that can use sequence and location to disrupt a hitter’s bat speed.

As it turns out, Taveras’s brand of violence is calculated, as he wields his weapon with a controlled fury; to the eye, his swing looks haphazard and aggressive to a fault, but his elite hand quickness and strength allow him to command his swing with more touch than is realized. He can barrel balls to all fields from all hands, and has improved his pitch recognition skills, leaving him with an offensive skill set that has few weaknesses. The hit tool receives sevens and eights in reports, and some scouts have even put sevens on his future power, a tool that will continue to mature. His defensive game isn’t nearly as remarkable, but his routes and angles continue to improve, and he has logged time at all three outfield spots, which gives him some positional versatility. Taveras’s offensive potential is the truth, and if he hits his projections he will be a superstar. He isn’t a finished product, but his time in the minors is nearing its conclusion, as the 19-year-old Dominican is more than holding his own in Double-A, and should compete for a job at the major league level at some point in 2013.

Prospect #5: RHP Tyrell Jenkins
Background with Player: Industry sources
Who: Selected in the supplemental first round of the 2010 draft, Jenkins might have the highest ceiling of any arm in the Cardinals system, which sounds crazy when you the organization can boast pitchers like Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez, and Trevor Rosenthal. The 19-year-old Texan has a plus fastball, a pitch that can already work in the 91-95 mph range, and has touched higher in bursts. His curveball is a bat-missing weapon, a heavy, vertical breaker with depth, and every source I spoke with projected it as either a plus pitch or a potential plus pitch. Like his changeup—which shows good action to the arm side and deception from the fastball—the curve is still more flash than fire, but both have above-average potential. Jenkins is a very gifted athlete, and his delivery isn’t complicated or mechanical despite his length, which bodes well for his command/control profile. He’s far from a finished product, as the thrower still needs to develop into the pitcher, but the ceiling is massive. Jenkins has impressive size (6’4’’) and athleticism, he has a smooth delivery and has shown a good feel for the strike zone in the past, he already shows a plus fastball and two secondary pitches that flash above-average potential, and he’s only 19. What’s not to like?

What Could go Wrong in 2012: Jenkins could end up number one on this list, as his physical talent is off-the-chart, but he’s still very raw. The low minors are the developmental breeding grounds for arm strength through four-seam repetition and the establishment of fastball command. When you are throwing a large number of any one particular pitch—especially one that you are trying to throw over the plate—exploitation is an inevitable part of the process. Jenkins has electric stuff, but he’s not immune to barrels, as he’s allowed a fair share of hard contact so far this season. His command has been shaky, losing his delivery at times and failing to repeat, which has resulted in high pitch counts and too many walks.

Physically, Jenkins still needs to add strength to his imposing 6’4’’ frame, allowing him to hold his stuff at higher workloads and limit fatigue and its mechanical repercussions. His secondary pitches are still very hot and cold, with the consistency of his delivery and release points affecting the utility, but he has plenty of time to find refinement. The projections suggest Jenkins has a high ceiling, with three plus potential pitches, prototypical size, well above-average athleticism, and a mature approach to the process. He’s a long way from reaching that ceiling, as the transformation from thrower to pitcher isn’t an overnight event. If the work ethic is there—which I’ve been told it is—Jenkins is a good candidate to emerge as a top-tier pitching prospect in the minors. It just might take a few years to see the production catch up to the promise.

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Swirls
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Re: BP - Prospects That Can Break Your Hearts 2012: Cardinal

Post by Swirls »

I like that for the top five that are ranked, the "what can go wrong" portion is still pretty positive.

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