Former Cardinals Watch

[BW23]

How many years do we have to wait before we can say we are happy at not re-signing Albert Pujols?

Do we really need to wait?

I'm happy, and that is not because of his slow start. I think he'll get untracked and be just fine for the next few years.

The romantic in me wanted Albert to be the Cardinals' next Stan. My practical side realizes that the Cardinals are likely to be more successful over the next 10 years without that huge payroll commitment/constraint.

That's where I am. I actually think I enjoy the team more without him on it, too.

[Vidor]

Does a great 2012 make trading Carlton a good move too? If Rzepczynski never amounts to more than a .5 win reliever and Rasmus is putting up ~3+ win seasons, yeah, it was a bad trade.

The reevaluation of the trade that took place over the postseason doesn't really make much sense. The players Rasmus was traded for combined for a -1.36 overall WPA for the Cardinals, so it's pretty ridiculous to pretend that they were the reason for the postseason charge. Dotel and Rzepczynski had their moments in the postseason, but that's a bit offset by Edwin Jackson sucking.

You might not be able to evaluate the trade yet, but you can pretty reasonably say that without that trade the Cardinals don't win the WS last year.

They may not have all been superstarts, but iirc,

Jackson replaced McClellan
Dotel replaced Tallet?
Scrabble replaced Miller
Jay replaced Rasmus

All of those, maybe sans the Jay Rasmus (I can't remember), resulted in improved prodution on the field last year where every little bit counted.

Who knows, Rasmus may go on to become a perennial all star while shooting 6 WAR years out his arse. But, 2011 never happens without that trade.

Exactly right. A lot of people were very wrong about that trade.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Does a great 2012 make trading Carlton a good move too? If Rzepczynski never amounts to more than a .5 win reliever and Rasmus is putting up ~3+ win seasons, yeah, it was a bad trade.

The reevaluation of the trade that took place over the postseason doesn't really make much sense. The players Rasmus was traded for combined for a -1.36 overall WPA for the Cardinals, so it's pretty ridiculous to pretend that they were the reason for the postseason charge. Dotel and Rzepczynski had their moments in the postseason, but that's a bit offset by Edwin Jackson sucking.

You might not be able to evaluate the trade yet, but you can pretty reasonably say that without that trade the Cardinals don't win the WS last year.

They may not have all been superstarts, but iirc,

Jackson replaced McClellan
Dotel replaced Tallet?
Scrabble replaced Miller
Jay replaced Rasmus

All of those, maybe sans the Jay Rasmus (I can't remember), resulted in improved prodution on the field last year where every little bit counted.

Who knows, Rasmus may go on to become a perennial all star while shooting 6 WAR years out his arse. But, 2011 never happens without that trade.

Exactly right. A lot of people were very wrong about that trade.

I dunno.

Hindsight is 20/20.

Had the Cardinals won 88 games or had the Braves won 91, there would still be a serious call for Mo's head. Baseball is funny like that. As it is, they overcame one of the largest september deficits ever, won 90 games and the Braves won 89 allowing the Cardinals to sneak into the playoffs. Then they went on possibly the most enjoyable run in the postseason that any fan has ever experienced. So, yeah, even people who disliked the trade (like myself) are willing to accept that the trade of Rasmus while possibly not the best long term move paid such high dividends in the short term that the long term loss (possibly) was worth it.

Like I said in the 'Mo' thread, what the Cardinals did (and the excitement the fans got from it) from September thru October will likely never be matched by any sports team anywhere in the world ever in terms of sheer happiness being brought to the fans.

Mo is a big beneficiary of that. Not that it is unwarranted, but he also would have been a big scapegoat had the Cardinals missed the playoffs. And, like the praise he gets now, the criticism had that been the case while not unwarranted would have been too extreme.

In short, I will agree with pebbles when he says it is too early to objectively judge the long term results of the Rasmus trade. But, you've at least got to recognize that last year doesn't happen without that trade, imo.

[Radbird]

That's where I am. I actually think I enjoy the team more without him on it, too.

That's certainly been true so far, hasn't it?

[Fat Strat]

Just throwing this out there, but when we're analyzing this trade we also have to account for the compensatory picks that we got when we let the FA's walk.

[cpebbles]

Just throwing this out there, but when we're analyzing this trade we also have to account for the compensatory picks that we got when we let the FA's walk.

As I mentioned in the minors forum, the expected surplus value of those picks is quite low, nearly to the point of insignificance. Maybe the front office can turn mediocre picks into gold, but until that bears out you can't give them a lot of credit for it.

[Secret Weapon]

rasmus was the 28th pick, we are getting the 53rd and 59th picks, are having those 2 picks much more mediocre than having the 28th pick?

[cpebbles]

And all 13th round picks are as valuable as Pujols.

At some point you have to evaluate the logic of your argument in favor of the trade and consider that maybe it isn't as defensible as you think...

[Felix The Cat]

Had the Cardinals won 88 games or had the Braves won 91, there would still be a serious call for Mo's head. Baseball is funny like that. As it is, they overcame one of the largest september deficits ever, won 90 games and the Braves won 89 allowing the Cardinals to sneak into the playoffs.

++

Without the Braves collapsing as they did, the trade looks drastically different from our end. Results-wise, the trade is at worst a push for me at this point even if Rasmus starts hitting/fielding like most of us hoped he would. Without that WS run, we'd have to really hit on those compensatory draft picks for me to like the trade in hindsight.

[Joe Shlabotnik]

And all 13th round picks are as valuable as Pujols.

At some point you have to evaluate the logic of your argument in favor of the trade and consider that maybe it isn't as defensible as you think...

The trade isn't defensible? I don't believe that. It got rid of a head case and replaced him with cogs that ran much better all around. I am firmly in the 'we don't make the world series without that trade camp'. Getting rid of the Rasmus Circus was worth the trade even if we didn't make the post season.