Arthur Dent wrote: ↑April 14 20, 3:23 pm
Leroy wrote: ↑April 14 20, 2:46 pm
GeddyWrox wrote: ↑April 14 20, 1:59 pm
So, uh, what happens when we're still all in lockdown in 3 months and the food supplies are severely disrupted?
My nephew (a farmer) posted a comment from someone on Facebook to a story about the supply problems. The comment was basically, 'I don't know why we need farmer's anyway. Most people go to Kroger's or Albertson's to get their groceries'.
May have been fake, who knows, but he also told stories of when he went to New York City years ago and amazed people on the subway that had no idea that farms existed and what they did.
I think the more up to date and accurate urbanite stereotypical view of farms is that they are the place for your pastoral pre-industrial longings rather than actual places that need to do intense production to support the population.
Anyway, I don't think food supply chains are actually jeopardized. Grocery stores are struggling due to hoarding and the challenge of adapting to a almost instant shift from restaurant supply chains to grocery stores. And there was that story about the outbreak at a meat packing plant. But we're still able to produce lots of food so far as I am aware. Getting it to people and having enough money to buy it are the bigger concerns right now, I think.
The bigger problem from my understanding is the massive shift in how Americans eat opting (being forced) to dine at home instead of going to restaurants. Apparently this is a net decrease in food required overall, but the shift to get it to supermarkets instead of restaurants does not happen overnight and is causing farmers to have a backlog/waste of food presently. It's not that the supply chain is broken or even taxed, it's that it's non-existent. Farm A that's selling to Applebees doesn't just up and start selling to WalMart at the flip of a switch.
Further, people are buying more because they're cooking more. And, they're buying more because there's a perceived shortage. And, they've buying more because they're hoarding which causes a bit of an actual shortage. All that's manageable in the long run.
The long run issue is if the virus spreads uncontrolled and starts disrupting more and more plants causing a shortage of workers from my understanding as well as causing plants to close down due to the lack of workers. There's plenty of packaged/preserved/frozen inventory to account for stuff that's happening in South Dakota and Iowa, however.
Further, less of a problem for America, but with the attempt to control the spread and close/restrict borders globally, nations that rely heavily on imports from places like China may see shortages in worst case scenarios and import rules relaxed for food. Further, due to the hoarding and possible disruption, food prices that can be exported will rise as nations compete (again, worst case scenario) for food much the same they are competing for ppe. However, food that can't be exported will see its price plummet as the supply will increase dramatically.
