Coronavirus

[ghostrunner]

Yep. This is why the protests didn't spread the virus a lot - people were not eating and drinking at the protests (maybe beyond bottled water or something). Also, protests are outdoors and there is a lot more space to keep your distance. Eating, drinking, partying, etc seem like what spreads it the most of all the "normal" activities

I have to say, I vehemently disagree w/ this. The protests w/o a doubt caused a lot of spread, which I think is why we are seeing a lot of younger people getting the virus (on top of bars and things like that reopening). This is the liberals (and I’m liberal) way of making excuses, and while I think the protests were completely justified, to say they didn’t help spread the virus just seems really disingenuous.

Objectively the outdoors has been shown to be a real mitigator. I read somewhere it’s something like 19x more likely to pass indoors. That goes for all the beach and lake pictures that some people have gotten upset about too. I posted one myself. There’s likely some increase in risk with no masks and with more crowding, and I’m sure some protestors and beach goers have also shared indoor spaces at times so there may be some relation, but I feel pretty comfortable with the protests themselves and it does seem like mask wearing has been on par or better with my grocery, for example.

Related to this, Zeynep Tufekci is a really good follow on Twitter for objective coverage.

[pioneer98]

This Twitter thread explains why the death rate is decreasing while new cases and hospitalizations are increasing. The TL;DR is basically: looking at national data is useless because we don't have 1 new outbreak, we have several new outbreaks that started at different times. You have to look at city or regional data to know what's going on. And when you do that, the conclusion is: deaths are already spiking in certain regions, and will spike nationally real soon

[SHOW]

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Overall, daily deaths have decreased while daily confirmed cases have risen because there's a lag between the two. The national 7 day average of new cases started rising about 2-3 weeks ago and those deaths are going to show up starting about now. If they don't, it's because of the reasons he listed and not because of a paradox.

That said, he's absolutely right that there are hundreds/thousands of mini outbreaks going on across the US. And, the best way to make projections/decisions is to look at them on a granular level. Further, one reason he didn't list for the lack of increase in deaths (which isn't even a thing yet) is the capacity of the healthcare system which comes into account when you get into the more granular level.

The fact remains, some people if exposed are going to die no matter what care is available at this point. More will die if care is not available due to the healthcare system being overwhelmed. The US healthcare infrastructure can probably withstand 50K daily cases given those cases are evenly distributed. But, if there are spikes in areas (like Houston or Miami or LA or NY or Detroit or etc) where the infrastructure is overrun, there's more deaths on top of what could be expected.

Rather or not that will happen, you'd need to look at the individual counties/areas. IMO.

What's crazy is the amount of different ways to break out the data. I mean, there are seemingly infinitely different ways to parse it. Age, economics, race, air quality, geography, etc etc etc. But, one thing they all have in common is the more cases there are, the more deaths there will be.

[thrill]

I'm no scientist, but I hung out on a bar patio with my coworker who got COVID a day before his symptoms started and didn't get it. Everyone he was in a conference room with that day did. I went to the beach last weekend, so they aren't all closed, but I'm really coming around on keeping all outdoor recreational spaces open while mandating masks, because it's really nice to get outside and be active during all of this.

Let people swim, fish, bike, golf, whatever. It helps in very important ways.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Feels like you've danced with the devil a few times, thrill.

Agree about the outdoor activities so long as people are smart about it.

No need to be hanging all over each other but get outside and enjoy it.

[thrill]

Feels like you've danced with the devil a few times, thrill.

One cannot force their will on the state of Florida. When you live in Florida, you must learn to exist in a zen state of submission to Florida and everything that entails. You cannot stop Florida from Floridaing.

[heyzeus]

Thrill is embracing his transition into Florida Man. In future posts, we will enjoy hearing his exploits shooting nutria with a 12 gauge from the back of a swamp boat, and getting arrested naked in a Wendy's demanding more Frosties for his nipples.

[mikechamp]

You cannot stop Florida from Floridaing.

If ever there were a signature-worthy statement uttered on this board, this would be it.

[thrill]

I will simply defeat the coronavirus by smoking crystal meth and throwing an alligator at whoever infected me.

[Fat_Bulldog]

Thrill is embracing his transition into Florida Man. In future posts, we will enjoy hearing his exploits shooting nutria with a 12 gauge from the back of a swamp boat, and getting arrested naked in a Wendy's demanding more Frosties for his nipples.

This made my day.