Coronavirus

[ghostrunner]

Re: masks, this is what isn't answered to my satisfaction:

Yes, Covid is transmitted through aerosolized particles. But the aerosol doesn't just occur straight out of the mouth or nose, right? Or does it, and to what extent? I'm sure some escapes the mouth in small particles but a lot of it gets out in bigger droplets which presumably dissipate. If you sneeze, you've got a variety of particles coming out. A visible stream in the center and bunch of smaller particles you can't even see coming out as well. The further you shoot those out and the fewer that are obstructed, the more particles will exist in the air. If this is oversimplifying, I'd like to see it proven. But it seems logical.


So in a busy neighborhood grocery, lets' say 1000 people go in a day. 100 have covid. What's the difference in accumulated aerosolized particles present in the air if none of those people are masked vs 50% of them or 100%. Or cloth vs semi-leaky N95s. How different is the saturation? Practically, you can say it doesn't matter if people won't do it or won't wear the mask properly, or they wear cloth masks. But if we don't know the answer to what works the best then it's not possible to recommend a course of action that everyone can communicate and follow. If it's not possible to know this, then we're left with what seems best to us. And with N95s you can actually protect yourself somewhat, and that's important if you've got vulnerable people in your life.

I'd really like an answer to how much covid goes in or out around the edges of masks. Out of curiosity as much as anything, because this seems more or less important depending on what expert you listen to.

I find any anecdotal or regional example hard to credit because it seems impossible to know enough about general behavior. Absent any real firm guidance, everyone's doing something different.

My understanding is that the particles are small enough that we are talking about them being attached to the air flowing through the mask, and not around the edges. Unless it is being passed through a HEPA level filter, COVID is being spread around.

You can tape a surgical style mask around the edges, and you'll still be able to breathe fairly easily through the material. A N95 will be tough, but still forcing some air through. I wouldn't want to spend all day breathing through that, even if it was filtering well enough to block COVID from passing through.

My understanding is Omicron just infects with a much smaller load and we're creating much more of it when we're infected. So the viral load is the big difference. There's more out there and it takes less of it to do damage. I haven't seen anything saying the size is different, but doesn't mean it's not true.

This is pretty representative of what I've read:

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... contagious

What I'm saying is that the COVID virus has been aerosol (attached and passes with normal breath) the entire time, with cloth and surgical masks being minimally effective all along. You were basically relying upon distance and ventilation between you and an infected person, with the filtration of the masks providing very little benefit. The lower viral load omicron requires to transmit just amplifies how important the distance and ventilation variables are.

EDIT: I guess think of it this way. We've been treating this like not getting sneeze droplets spreading from one person to another. We should be treating it like not smelling another person's fart. Doens't matter how tight fitting and dense their underwear is - you are going to smell it.

I suppose with Omicron that may be right, though I've also read N95s should still be somewhat effective against it.

[ghostrunner]

Point being, to act as if it's absurd to talk about the pandemic like it's effectively over or even offensive then I'd be curious what metrics you'd use. Still, I don't agree with his statement it's effectively over. As a citizen of one of the states he talks about, my kid's school is still doing virtual learning. The hospitals are mobilizing to meet a coming surge. Lines to get tested are long. Etc.

I feel like this answers your question. The hospitalizations in particular are already straining the system, even where many people are vaxxed.

Hospitals are strained, not overrun. They've also had two years to adapt and prepare and have been unable to do so. Sure, omicron came on quickly, but winter and its associated surge was more than predictable by anyone able to read a 4th grade level textbook. Sucks for the workers who will be overworked. But, at this point, I'd argue hospitals are underserving their communities more so than communities are overrunning hospitals. We've had two massive waves in hospitalizations the past year or so prior to this one. Every medical expert in the world agrees covid will become endemic, not go away. Everyone agrees it will mutate. Yet, I guess hospitals are just like, eh, it'll go away, no need to worry about it. I'm not too keen on letting them dictate the status of of the pandemic. We could go on like this forever if they don't allocate enough beds/staff for surges.

OK, but if the system as is can't handle it, then in what sense is the pandemic effectively over? That makes no sense at all to me. It affects other people who need hospital services. Omicron is clearly much worse than Delta or original Covid, so what level should they be prepared for? If we get to a point where we're no longer having huge surges like this - which seems plausible to me - then I'd say it's over. If not, then yeah I guess hospitals need to change some things. Until that happens, "over" seems premature.

[Popeye_Card]

Again, I don't think there's any difference in *how* OG COVID, Delta, or Omicron are transported (droplet vs. aerosol). I just takes fewer Omicron particles travelling over to take hold. In the fart analogy, you have to be exposed pretty closely to a spinach salad fart to smell it (Delta). You can be a bit further away and still smell the guy that went to Taco Bell (Omicron).

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Point being, to act as if it's absurd to talk about the pandemic like it's effectively over or even offensive then I'd be curious what metrics you'd use. Still, I don't agree with his statement it's effectively over. As a citizen of one of the states he talks about, my kid's school is still doing virtual learning. The hospitals are mobilizing to meet a coming surge. Lines to get tested are long. Etc.

I feel like this answers your question. The hospitalizations in particular are already straining the system, even where many people are vaxxed.

Hospitals are strained, not overrun. They've also had two years to adapt and prepare and have been unable to do so. Sure, omicron came on quickly, but winter and its associated surge was more than predictable by anyone able to read a 4th grade level textbook. Sucks for the workers who will be overworked. But, at this point, I'd argue hospitals are underserving their communities more so than communities are overrunning hospitals. We've had two massive waves in hospitalizations the past year or so prior to this one. Every medical expert in the world agrees covid will become endemic, not go away. Everyone agrees it will mutate. Yet, I guess hospitals are just like, eh, it'll go away, no need to worry about it. I'm not too keen on letting them dictate the status of of the pandemic. We could go on like this forever if they don't allocate enough beds/staff for surges.

OK, but if the system as is can't handle it, then in what sense is the pandemic effectively over? That makes no sense at all to me. It affects other people who need hospital services. Omicron is clearly much worse than Delta or original Covid, so what level should they be prepared for? If we get to a point where we're no longer having huge surges like this - which seems plausible to me - then I'd say it's over. If not, then yeah I guess hospitals need to change some things. Until that happens, "over" seems premature.

It sounds like you're making an assumption that covid will, at some point, relent and the hospital system will return to the way it was in late 2019 which is something I would disagree with. Covid is a +1 event which almost by definition is going to require hospitals to adjust.

If we have to return to minimal hospitalizations from a surge or variant or whatever, we may never get there. Using made up but somewhat reality based numbers, if a hospital saw 120 cases last winter and 90 cases with delta and sees 120 cases with omicron, but is only prepared for 50 cases that's bad. Though...seems like the hospital should be prepared for 120 cases. It's not an unforeseeable event at this point. They need to adjust. Just like they have oncology wards and maternity wards and emergency departments and etc. Gonna need a covid ward.

[understatement]Covid sucks.[/understatement] Wish it wasn't here all you want, but it is. And will stay here and it won't be particularly pretty.

Still, having said all that, there are large groups of the population that weren't ever at all that great of a risk to begin with and have further reduced that risk to the point its no different than driving to work or thereabouts. If you're in that group, how is it not effectively over on a personal level?

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

you have to be exposed pretty closely to a spinach salad fart to smell it (Delta). You can be a bit further away and still smell the guy that went to Taco Bell (Omicron).

Sig'd

[ghostrunner]

Point being, to act as if it's absurd to talk about the pandemic like it's effectively over or even offensive then I'd be curious what metrics you'd use. Still, I don't agree with his statement it's effectively over. As a citizen of one of the states he talks about, my kid's school is still doing virtual learning. The hospitals are mobilizing to meet a coming surge. Lines to get tested are long. Etc.

I feel like this answers your question. The hospitalizations in particular are already straining the system, even where many people are vaxxed.

Hospitals are strained, not overrun. They've also had two years to adapt and prepare and have been unable to do so. Sure, omicron came on quickly, but winter and its associated surge was more than predictable by anyone able to read a 4th grade level textbook. Sucks for the workers who will be overworked. But, at this point, I'd argue hospitals are underserving their communities more so than communities are overrunning hospitals. We've had two massive waves in hospitalizations the past year or so prior to this one. Every medical expert in the world agrees covid will become endemic, not go away. Everyone agrees it will mutate. Yet, I guess hospitals are just like, eh, it'll go away, no need to worry about it. I'm not too keen on letting them dictate the status of of the pandemic. We could go on like this forever if they don't allocate enough beds/staff for surges.

OK, but if the system as is can't handle it, then in what sense is the pandemic effectively over? That makes no sense at all to me. It affects other people who need hospital services. Omicron is clearly much worse than Delta or original Covid, so what level should they be prepared for? If we get to a point where we're no longer having huge surges like this - which seems plausible to me - then I'd say it's over. If not, then yeah I guess hospitals need to change some things. Until that happens, "over" seems premature.

It sounds like you're making an assumption that covid will, at some point, relent and the hospital system will return to the way it was in late 2019 which is something I would disagree with. Covid is a +1 event which almost by definition is going to require hospitals to adjust.

If we have to return to minimal hospitalizations from a surge or variant or whatever, we may never get there. Using made up but somewhat reality based numbers, if a hospital saw 120 cases last winter and 90 cases with delta and sees 120 cases with omicron, but is only prepared for 50 cases that's bad. Though...seems like the hospital should be prepared for 120 cases. It's not an unforeseeable event at this point. They need to adjust. Just like they have oncology wards and maternity wards and emergency departments and etc. Gonna need a covid ward.

[understatement]Covid sucks.[/understatement] Wish it wasn't here all you want, but it is. And will stay here and it won't be particularly pretty.

Still, having said all that, there are large groups of the population that weren't ever at all that great of a risk to begin with and have further reduced that risk to the point its no different than driving to work or thereabouts. If you're in that group, how is it not effectively over on a personal level?

I don’t know about it being here to stay, or at least in a form as destructive as it is now. I don’t think that’s denial, just feels too early to me to make a prediction either way. The flu is probably the closest contagious comparison and it’s estimated to have killed at most 52k in the US from 2010 to 2020. If this doesn’t end up weakening, then Covid would be about 4 million deaths over 10 years. So sustaining a system to accommodate that seems like a big deal. I’m not saying it can’t be done but it hasn’t yet so some effort to reduce spread seems reasonable to me. Maybe it proves impossible, but it seems too early to me to be at the just live with it stage. At least during surges like this one.

[haltz]

It can't maintain this pace even without a vaccine, people will develop immunity. I think one of the scariest things about this is that I don't hear much about the health care system preparing for the next thing, which could of course be way worse than Covid even. Not surprising I guess since it's profit driven.

[Arthur Dent]

I guess think of it this way. We've been treating this like not getting sneeze droplets spreading from one person to another. We should be treating it like not smelling another person's fart. Doens't matter how tight fitting and dense their underwear is - you are going to smell it.

I suppose with Omicron that may be right, though I've also read N95s should still be somewhat effective against it.

That’s actually a quite good analogy. In fact, a good way to tell if your N95 mask is fit is if you can still smell anything.

Are farts less stinky by any significant amount when they’re done naked? I’m sure you could setup a lab test on the multi-layer underwear/pants interface and show that it has ~50% filtration efficiency against some types of particles. Then you could put together a chart like the one printed in the WSJ (somehow promoted by Twitter rather than labeling it misinformation or stamping one of those “get the facts from the CDC” labels on it), claiming that this means farts must have 2x the duration (4x if the smeller wears a surgical mask) to initiate a gross out.

[Arthur Dent]

This is pretty representative of what I've read:

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... contagious

That article is totally deranged, imo:

"I have a lot of confidence in the vaccines, if you're boosted, in protecting against severe outcomes," Marr says, "and I have a lot of confidence in an N95 and similar types of respirators. And I think that with those two things, you can still go about a lot of your normal activities.

…

Marr says that with omicron surging, she'd have kids wear respirators if possible when they're indoors in public spaces.

Ummm, what? This is having confidence in vaccines? Based on what data is trying to stuff vaccinated children into N95 masks anything but a sick and twisted idea? It’s abusing children to sate irrational adult anxiety.

BTW: the data that boosting reduces severe outcomes is quite weak. Given the balance of risks, the case for them is probably still good the older you are, but the push to boost children is probably a net health reduction by causing myocarditis cases that are more costly than the tiny benefit against actual COVID, and this push is not based on any good data. I feel like pushing this is quite a bad idea, and a good way to undermine trust for other critical childhood vaccines.

[Popeye_Card]

Humans have been farting for thousands of years, yet we still have so much to learn.

I will say that dog farts are transmitted completely unfiltered other than hair, and they can fill up an extraordinarily large room.