Mozeliak: "Some Changes" Coming For Cardinals, But Not A Rebuild

[Magneto2.0]

Carlson is exactly the kind of player to be an All Star right after we trade him.

I'd still like to hold on to him. I think he'll figure it out eventually. Our OF defense is pretty rough so definitely worth having around.

I feel like DeJong, Montgomery, Flaherty, and Hicks would be the best to go. The SS market is extremely thin and DeJong has a good glove and streaky bat. We all know that Hicks won't last.

Yeah I'm not saying Carlson is untradeable by any means, but I wouldn't give him up for peanuts. If they package him in a bigger deal for a pitcher, I'd be for it.

[Socnorb11]

Carlson is exactly the kind of player to be an All Star right after we trade him.

I'd still like to hold on to him. I think he'll figure it out eventually. Our OF defense is pretty rough so definitely worth having around.

I feel like DeJong, Montgomery, Flaherty, and Hicks would be the best to go. The SS market is extremely thin and DeJong has a good glove and streaky bat. We all know that Hicks won't last.

I feel like the rest of the league will also recognize that most of these guys aren't dependable.

[cardsfantx]

Not sure where to put this…

[cardsfantx]

here's hoping, the rays get the better of us in another trade...

The Rays’ rotation has been ravaged by injury in 2023, with starters Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs both going down for the season already. Shane Baz underwent Tommy John surgery last September, and Shane McClanahan has been out since June 30 with a back injury (though he’s expected back tonight). Tyler Glasnow is healthy at the moment but has been limited to just nine starts this season. Southpaw Josh Fleming hit the injured list on June 3 and has since been moved to the 60-day IL.

Tampa Bay remains in first place despite that slate of health woes, but the rotation currently consists of McClanahan, Glasnow, Zach Eflin and top prospect Taj Bradley. The Rays have had their share of bullpen games this season already, and with so many of their arms done for the year, they’re in the market for veteran rotation help. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that they’ve already spoken to the White Sox about a potential deal for Lance Lynn, and they’ve also “extensively” scouted Cardinals rental arms Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty.

Lynn, 36, is in the second season of a two-year, $38MM contract that contains a $18MM club option (or $1MM buyout) for the 2024 season. The 2021 All-Star finished in the top six of American League Cy Young voting each season from 2019-21 but is currently in the midst of one of the toughest seasons of his career. Through 108 1/3 frames, Lynn owns a 6.06 ERA, due largely to an MLB-high 24 home runs allowed.

While the long ball has plagued Lynn at career-worst levels in 2023, he’s still missing bats at a high level and limiting walks at a passable rate. Lynn’s 27.7% strikeout rate ranks tenth in the Majors among qualified starters, and his 14% swinging-strike rate ranks eighth. His 8.3% walk rate is just narrowly higher than the 7.9% average among big league starters. Metrics like xFIP (3.82) and SIERA (3.79) feel he’s outperformed his baseline ERA.

Lynn is being paid $18.5MM this season and, as of this writing, has about $7.6MM remaining on the deal — plus the $1MM buyout on next year’s option. Despite the poor results, Nightengale notes that the asking price on the righty remains high — likely reflective of both the limited number of starters available and the broad number of teams who believe Lynn’s strong K-BB profile makes him an appealing rebound candidate.

As for the Cardinals’ starters, both are rather straightforward trade candidates. The Cards sit in last place in the National League Central and are 11.5 games back not only in the division but also in the National League Wild Card chase. President of baseball ops John Mozeliak is already turning his focus to the 2024 season, and the Cardinals already look to be making some changes on the roster, as they’re reportedly set to designate lefty reliever Genesis Cabrera for assignment today.

Both Montgomery and Flaherty, meanwhile, are set to be free agents following the season. The 30-year-old Montgomery would be a natural candidate to receive and reject a qualifying offer at season’s end, but the demand for rotation help should create a trade return that outpaces that value. In 18 starts and 103 innings this year, Montgomery boasts a 3.23 ERA with a 22.3% strikeout rate (roughly average for a starting pitcher), a strong 6.6% walk rate and an above-average 45.9% ground-ball rate. He’s earning $10MM on the season — about $4.1MM of which is yet to be paid out.

Flaherty, 27, was one of the NL’s best young starters in 2018-19 but has been plagued by injuries for much of the past few seasons. He’s been healthy in 2023, making 18 starts and tallying 98 2/3 innings, but this year’s 11.8% walk rate is an alarming mark that represents a continuation of last year’s career-worst levels (13.2%). Despite that high level, he has a 4.29 ERA with strikeout and ground-ball rates nearly identical to those of Montgomery. At $5.4MM, he’s earning roughly half the salary of Montgomery and has about $2.2MM still owed to him.

There’s no indication yet that the Rays have had any sort of advanced talks on any of the three, and this trio surely represents just a handful of a larger number of arms Tampa Bay is considering. It stands to reason that they’ll check in on the majority of arms available, particularly those currently playing for concrete sellers like the White Sox and Cardinals. Each of Lynn, Montgomery and Flaherty has a good chance to be moved in the next few weeks, and each will draw interest from a broad range of suitors. The Rays, with a deep farm system and clear postseason ambitions, have the ability and motivation to land just about any starting pitcher they covet; time will tell which direction they go as they continue to survey the market between now and the Aug. 1 deadline.

[Magneto2.0]

[cardsfantx]

gonna need more than one John

[cardsfantx]

just for fun, here's a list of FA SP...

Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger (mutual option), Alex Cobb (club option), Johnny Cueto (club option), Jack Flaherty, Lucas Giolito, Sonny Gray, Zack Greinke, Andrew Heaney (opt-out), Kyle Hendricks (club option), Rich Hill, Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber (club option), Lance Lynn (club option), Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Sean Manaea (opt-out), Germán Márquez (club option), Wade Miley (mutual option), Frankie Montas, Jordan Montgomery, Charlie Morton (club option), Aaron Nola, Jake Odorizzi, Shohei Ohtani, Eduardo Rodriguez (opt-out), Hyun Jin Ryu, Max Scherzer (opt-out), Luis Severino, Blake Snell, Ross Stripling (opt-out), Marcus Stroman (opt-out), Noah Syndergaard, Julio Urías, Michael Wacha (club and player options), Alex Wood

[Radbird]

When asked about the rotation, he says “we have 3 open spots right now”, then “well, not right now”, then chuckles and says “please delete that”.

[Magneto2.0]

just for fun, here's a list of FA SP...

Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger (mutual option), Alex Cobb (club option), Johnny Cueto (club option), Jack Flaherty, Lucas Giolito, Sonny Gray, Zack Greinke, Andrew Heaney (opt-out), Kyle Hendricks (club option), Rich Hill, Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber (club option), Lance Lynn (club option), Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Sean Manaea (opt-out), Germán Márquez (club option), Wade Miley (mutual option), Frankie Montas, Jordan Montgomery, Charlie Morton (club option), Aaron Nola, Jake Odorizzi, Shohei Ohtani, Eduardo Rodriguez (opt-out), Hyun Jin Ryu, Max Scherzer (opt-out), Luis Severino, Blake Snell, Ross Stripling (opt-out), Marcus Stroman (opt-out), Noah Syndergaard, Julio Urías, Michael Wacha (club and player options), Alex Wood

From that list I feel like we need two.

Who I want them to go after in a perfect world:
Ohtani
Nola

Who I think they'll go after:
Lance Lynn
Giolito

Who I think they'll end up with:
Lance Lynn
Rich Hill

[Magneto2.0]