Jorge Posada and MLB stats from 1950 to 2026

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ghostrunner
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Jorge Posada and MLB stats from 1950 to 2026

Post by ghostrunner »

There was some minor buzz the other day generated by Jorge Posada saying he can't stand watching today's baseball.
The four-time World Series champ believes the game has become way too obsessed with advanced stats and systems that, in his eyes, have sucked the spontaneity right out of baseball. Posada didn't mince words, saying, "The baseball they play today is garbage"—a comment that instantly went viral among fans and analysts alike.

The legendary Yankees catcher explained that he misses the days when putting the ball in play, moving runners over, and avoiding strikeouts were the name of the game. He recalled that during his career, striking out 100 times in a season was considered a disaster for any hitter, no matter how much power they had.

For Posada, the offensive philosophy has done a complete 180. These days, he says, you see players hitting around .200, racking up strikeouts like it's going out of style, and still landing multi-million dollar contracts just because they can hit home runs. That, he says, is a world away from the generation that brought four titles to New York.
Generously leaving aside that he played in the steroid era, and how that certainly affects a lot of what he's talking about, I thought it might be interesting to look at stats going back a few decades and see how accurate his take is and what other interesting stuff might show up.

Full screen shot (spoilered for size) with a heat map option enabled so you can easily see where the extremes are:
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He's basically right about strikeouts going up, which isn't a big surprise. I was a bit surprised about the timespan it's increased over though. K% has very gradually gone up going back to a brief stable period from 1978 to 1981. From 12.5% in '81 up to a (full season) peak of 23.2% in 2021.

If you zoom out even further than this, the general trend is just increasing K% going all the way back to 1925. Some periods of regression, stagnation, correction, and acceleration, but generally it just continues to go up.

1925 - 6.9%
1935 - 8.3%
1945 - 8.5%
1955 - 11.4%
1965 - 15.7%
1975 - 13%
1985 - 14%
1995 - 16.2%
2005 - 16.4%
2015 - 20.4%
2025 - 22.2%


He's right about sacrifice hits relative to his era, but it's interesting how deeply they bottomed out in 2022 and this year they're already close to that number. Sac flies haven't really changed much at all.

Average and OBP are down relative to when Posada played, but in that case the game has clearly gone through some ebbs and flows - again before the mound change looks very similar to the last decade. But also again from 1988 to 1992. At least in the period shown here, AVG peaked about 4 years into Posada's career.

Lots of other noticeable trends since 2000 - triples are way down since then, doubles down somewhat, GDPs are down.


I don't know what he's talking about with 100Ks being a disaster. He broke that himself several times. So did Jeter, Soriano, Arod, etc... The Yankees had 5 guys over 100Ks in 2002. Not that it wasn't often frustrating watching Edmonds K pretty often, but nobody would've called his 100K seasons here disasters.

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AdmiralKird
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Re: Jorge Posada and MLB stats from 1950 to 2026

Post by AdmiralKird »

I'd be interested to see a column of "average fastball speed."

Even if hitters today put more effort into avoiding the strikeout, I'm not sure you're going to be able to keep K's down and increase hit totals that much when everyone and their air bud is throwing 99 and not 93.

If Greg Maddux is hurling, you can see the ball out of his hand and bring the barrel around and poke it the opposite way. But if you have to guess more before the roadrunner ball meep meeps past then you might as well put a harder swing behind it since you're not adjusting much on that thing anyway.

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CardsofSTL
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Re: Jorge Posada and MLB stats from 1950 to 2026

Post by CardsofSTL »

The pitching is an interesting factor; going from pitch to contact to try to generate quick outs to power arms racking up K's.

I saw Posada's comments and while I don't agree that baseball is unwatchable, the extreme defensive shifts that got regulated a few years ago and some other changes I think have helped bring the game back to where it was to a certain extent insofar as excitement level.

It's interesting to see the trend laid out, thanks for posting @ghostrunner

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Re: Jorge Posada and MLB stats from 1950 to 2026

Post by dmarx114 »

I am with Posada on this. I want to see more balls in play. Moving the mound back would help.

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mikechamp
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Re: Jorge Posada and MLB stats from 1950 to 2026

Post by mikechamp »

Novice question here:

Wouldn't contact percentage (C%) shed a little light on his claim?

I don't know if MLB tracks that stat or not. I know we can see it in GameChanger at the youth level, both for the individual and the team as a whole.

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Re: Jorge Posada and MLB stats from 1950 to 2026

Post by GeddyWrox »

Interesting thread! I'm just here to learn something. 8-)

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ghostrunner
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Re: Jorge Posada and MLB stats from 1950 to 2026

Post by ghostrunner »

dmarx114 wrote:
July 9 26, 8:42 am
I am with Posada on this. I want to see more balls in play. Moving the mound back would help.
I do too, I just think he's pretty wide of the mark with the rest of it. Also throwing stones in a glass house and all that. And I'm not even saying he can't prefer a different style than what he was capable of, but many of the premises he's laying out - it was horrific to have 100ks, his teammates didn't do that - are just incorrect.

I think Posada and a lot of people think - and I was also under this impression - that baseball teams prioritized power over contact first and that's why contact is diminishing. Like maybe they found high K rate hitters were undervalued. But looking at this it seems more like a pretty logical response to a long term trend.

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Re: Jorge Posada and MLB stats from 1950 to 2026

Post by Popeye_Card »

In a way it is all pretty ironic, because while Billy Beane and the A's got all of the credit for being early adopters of sabermetrics in the early 00's, that late-90's Yankees dynasty was really the first team to embrace things like OBP, mashing HR's, and limiting HR's on the pitching side. But since they could also supplement all of that with high dollar contracts too, they didn't get the same credit.

Echoing others' comments, I think Posada is off-base in regard to it being an approach thing with hitters. Pitcher velocity and movement has reached the point where it is very difficult to take a controlled swing and just try to put the ball in play. Agree with him that it has made for a worse fan experience, but I think it is more just the evolution of the sport.

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a_smith
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Re: Jorge Posada and MLB stats from 1950 to 2026

Post by a_smith »

I totally agree Popeye.

Posada must have hated himself given his strikeout rates.
He averaged 100 a year. It sure looked like he traded ks for power in the years he had 120-150 ks. Just a weird comment to hear from a guy who stuck out a lot and had power.

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Fan_In_NY
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Re: Jorge Posada and MLB stats from 1950 to 2026

Post by Fan_In_NY »

The Sac Bunt stats is heavily skewed over this timeline because of the changing of the DH rules. Some of this dataset had no DH, some had AL-Only DH, some had interleague play where sometimes the AL pitchers hit, and some have the full DH. Also the responsibility for the pitcher to have some modicum of offensive responsibility changed throughout the early DH period as well.

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