Jay Jaffe's NL Central comments

[mikechamp]

These comments came from a chat with FanGraphs' writer Jay Jaffe that occurred on July 28. (If you like him, you can find him on Twitter @jay_jaffe.)

I don't usually cover his chats, but MLBTR only offers one non-paywalled chat per week now, so I'm branching out to bring my fellow board members more info.

A good amount of NL Central questions for only an hour-long chat. I included 2 bonus Q&As as well. Enjoy!

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffe-f ... t-7-28-26/
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Hi Jay – if you had to bet, who do you think gets the 3rd NLWC spot?

Jay Jaffe
Our Playoff Odds have the Pirates there (47.4%) and I’m reasonably optimistic about them, provided they don’t sit on their hands at the deadline. The other team I’d keep an eye on is the Padres, who for all of their recent problems do seem to be able to remake their rosters at the deadline every year.
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Beltran seemed to take a more belligerent stance in defending his role in the 2017 cheating scandal. He seems to remain respected by both media and baseball alums. Do you think that if some of the guys associated with PEDs had taken a similar tact with their own cases (as opposed to silence or ambiguous contrition), they would be treated differently now? Or are PEDs and advanced sign stealing just not comparable?

Jay Jaffe
I think the complexities of the sign-stealing scandal, and the fact that he was the lone active player identified, sets his case apart from the PED guys. I think they — Bonds et al — would have been better off trying to take a more conciliatory stance with regards to their own actions. “I felt pressure to keep up, I made mistakes that at the time I viewed as falling along the continuum of what players did to be their best, like greenies…” etc.
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Who returns a better prospect package for the Cardinals: Noot, O’Brien, or May?

Jay Jaffe
I don’t see the Cardinals as far enough outside the playoff picture that they’re going to blow up their roster. May’s value is down because he’s scuffled lately — a pending free agent like that isn’t going to bring back a package so much as a take-a-flier guy.

O’Brien, the closer, may be the exception, because they can deal him as a club control guy, then shuffle through internal options or land somebody who is functionally equivalent but may be a pending FA.
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Cubs are playing very well, and make me wonder what they could have looked like with a healthy Horton and Brown at the top of the rotation. They clearly don’t have the horses to make it through the playoffs right now (looking at you, game 1 pitcher Shota Imanaga). Hoyer isn’t one for making big trades that mortgage some or all of the future, especially when it’s unlikely they’ll catch the Brewers. That said, what second-tier starters do you think will be moved? Seems like Detmers and Soriano on the Angels are moving, Robbie Ray is almost certainly moving, and probably Sandy on the Marlins. Have to say that’s an uninspiring group, given current performance.

Jay Jaffe
The Mets’ Freddy Peralta has been pretty uninspiring but may be fine with a change of scenery. Luis Castillo or Emerson Hancock appear likely to be dealt by the Mariners. The Royals’ Michael Wacha seems like a guy who might move.
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So, ignoring guys like Grich who are the committees’ problem, do you think the election of Andruw Jones opens things up for even more of a defense-first guy via the BBWAA? I guess you’ve been pushing for that with catchers, but I’m imagining more of an ideal-aging-curve version of Rafaela. I guess Andrelton Simmons could have been an interesting test case with a longer career also.

Jay Jaffe
I just don’t think there are that many likely defense-first candidates who can get that far. Even with the Gold Gloves, Jones was helped by hitting 400+ homers and being on a perennial playoff team. Rafaela hasn’t produced anything eye-catching enough on offense to help his case along, and the Red Sox seem to be in a boom-and-bust cycle of contending.

It’s far more likely we see guys like Chase Utley, Nolan Arenado and maybe Matt Chapman if he proves to have the staying power follow in the footsteps of Larry Walker, Scott Rolen, and Todd Helton — guys whose lower counting stats are offset by significant defensive value and recognition. Jones fits into that group pretty well, too.
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Do you think Keith Hernandez eventually gets into the Hall?

Jay Jaffe
I’ve never understood why he can’t get Era Committee placement. he’s not a one-and-done guy, he fits into the Walker/Helton/Rolen/Jones/Utley group, and he’s got the long tail as a broadcaster which — if that was supposed to be something that pushed Kaat over the line (which seems dubious) — should only help his cause.

I would vote for Hernandez.
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Short of a change in ownership, tell me there’s hope in Cincinnati? Surprises me this ownership group/F.O. isn’t getting more heat in public. Bring back #SellTheTeamBob!

Jay Jaffe
Feels like the one thing they’ve done well, which has kept them relevant in recent years, was to put together solid rotations, but this year’s model has fallen apart except for Abbott and Burns. Their farm system is currently 27th in the rankings. Things look grim.
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With Curaçao now crossed off the list, what’s the next country to have its first hall of famer?

Jay Jaffe
Ooh, I’d have to think about that one. South Korea doesn’t have anybody imminent. Neither does Mexico, which has produced hundreds of players yet somehow nobody who’s landed in Cooperstown (I think career bWAR leader Fernando Valenzuela is more likely to get the Buck O’Neil Award than full election). Aruba has Xander Bogaerts, who has 43 bWAR but is in decline.

Here’s a good place to start: https://www.baseball-reference.com/bio/ ... _bat.shtml
If anyone has better ideas, let me know.
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Now that we’re a few years in, do you get the sense that teams highly value being in the hunt for the 3rd WC spot? Right now there are ~13 teams either in the WC or in the hunt. That’s exciting, but do teams secretly care a little less than we think about squeaking into that last spot?

Jay Jaffe
I think so because we tend to see a lot of wait-and-see behavior at the deadline from those teams — not the kind of trades that can be game-changers.
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