Jay Jaffe's NL Central comments

mikechamp · Post by **mikechamp** » August 20 26, 11:47 am

These comments came from a chat with FanGraphs' writer Jay Jaffe that occurred on August 18. If you like him, you can find him on BlueSky at https://bsky.app/profile/jayjaffe.bsky.social.

A healthy amount of NL Central questions this time. I included 1 bonus Q&A about the composition of the HoF. Enjoy!

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffe-f ... t-8-18-26/
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Last night PCA became the 7th player ever to bookend a game with homers. This season he has: tripled his career walk rate, had a 3-war month, posted 6.5 war in a 65 game stretch, set the career record for 5-star catches in less than 400 games, posted another 30/30 season, is practically lapping the war field since May 1, hit for the cycle. Yet no writer has given him his flowers/article. What gives?

Jay Jaffe
He was #3 in our Trade Value series just a couple weeks ago: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-trade-value-nos-1-10/, and he’s having an MVP caliber season. I’ve been thinking of doing something on him soon, because I agree he deserves a closer look.
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Hi Jay – what do you think is going on with Paul Skenes? Fatigue? Mechanics? Underlying injury?

Jay Jaffe
It looks like batters are doing much better against his sinker, splitter, and changeup, so it may be a familiarity thing. He’s giving up more barrels and harder contact, also more fly balls. The pitch-modelng apps say his stuff has regressed. Maybe there’s some fatigue there, maybe it’s the curse of Team USA (see Raleigh, Cal). Doubt it’s an injury because even the Pirates would be careful there if they saw something.
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I’d add Curt Flood to the list of “beyond the numbers” guys.

Jay Jaffe
Yes, absolutely.
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Kyle Tucker sure seems to have all the hallmarks of the yips. Could you provide a brief review of the famous cases of the yips, and which (if any) players were able to recover?

Jay Jaffe
Guys who come to mind regarding the yips: Steve Blass, Dale Murphy (as a catcher, so probably the best recovery upon switching positions) Steve Sax (strong recovery), Chuck Knoblauch, Mackey Sasser, Jon Lester, Daniel Bard, Tyler Matzek, Jarred Saltalamacchia, Rick Ankiel (cool mid-career conversion to OF), Mark Wohlers.

The Athletic’s Rustin Dodd recently had a good piece about the yips, and his own battle with them. Gift link: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/749951 ... l-share-ta
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Is there any tracking of when a player scorches a ball so hard it smacks off the wall and they only get a single? (Oneil Cruz, et al)

Jay Jaffe
We could probably figure out a statcast query where we have the longest singles with the highest exit velocities. Give me a minute or two at Baseball Savant.

Singles of at least 300 feet hit at 100 mph or higher: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast ... on#results

Not sure that’s what I expected.

Cruz does have the highest average exit velo of anybody with at least 100 batted ball events (96 mph) but that’s not asking directly about wallbangers.
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If MLB were to create a Hall of Infamy, who would be some first-ballot inductees?

Jay Jaffe
Cap Anson, Pete Rose, Shoeless Joe Jackson and the other banned Black Sox.

oh, and Hal Chase.
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Nice debut by Baez but since then he looks over matched. Is he going back to AAA to readjust, even though he has nothing to prove there, or do they let him work it out at the major league level since they are not looking like a playoff team? Where do you think he truly is at? Does he make the OD roster in ’27 and be the star everyone thinks he could be?

Jay Jaffe
He’s 0-for-14 with 6 strikeouts and an HBP since the big 3-homer debut, but he’s absolutely scorching the ball when he makes contact, with an average exit velo on those other BIP of 99.8 mph, with a 75% hard-hit rate. Yes, the 22.6% swinging strike rate in that span is worrisome but let’s maybe wait more than three games before passing judgment.
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Do you expect Bruce Bochy and Dusty Baker to be elected by this winter’s HOF Era Committee? Would you be surprised to see anyone other than those two?

Jay Jaffe
If both are on the ballot, yes I expect them to be elected. Lou Piniella, who’s been a near-miss twice, might also be on that ballot. but the 8 candidate/3 vote format seems likely to leave somebody on the outside looking in.
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Little reason to think Kyle Schwarber won’t reach 500 HRs at this rate. Will that truly be enough to give the 2016 Cubs their only HOFer?

Jay Jaffe
I don’t know if will be enough, and while i think he has a decent shot at 500 (he has 377), I wouldn’t take his continued progress toward that goal for granted.
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Do you think people are underestimating the baseline growth trajectory for Jackson Chourio? His numbers regressed a bit last season and last season does look similar overall to last couple seasons. But watching basically every game he’s developed noticeably more plate discipline until 2 strikes, still looks like he’ll develop more strength as he physically matures, and he’s only 22 years old. He’s looking a little stiffer running or more reluctant to open it up all the time since his hamstring issues last season, but if he was a 22-year old rookie playing 3-4 WAR over full season with high level streaks, I suspect the hype would still be high.

Jay Jaffe
I tend to agree. We had him 16th in our Trade Value series between Corbin Carroll and Julio Rodríguez, and that’s some pretty serious company.
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What would you do with Edward Cabrera at this point? Granted he’s back on the IL with blisters, but even the early innings of his last start before that cropped up were pretty bad. He has all the hallmarks of a Daniel Cabrera type (last name aside): otherworldly stuff but can’t command it well enough to maintain his value to the team. Reducing him to two pitches and making him a reliever seems like the most obvious thing for the short term, to me.

Jay Jaffe
The stuff is way down this year according to both pitch-modeling systems we use, and I have no real idea why except that it’s tough to pitch when your body won’t cooperate.

I do wonder whether there’s enough deception in his arsenal — if his tunneling is worse than before – but that’s not something i know offhand. I’m just out here asking the questions, man.
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If you could populate the Hall of Fame with the same number of players, would there would be a 90% overlap with those who are actually enshrined? Or do you think the writers and others who have voted over the years got it right more often than 90% of the time – or less?

Jay Jaffe
Not sure about 90%, but maybe 75%. I’d put in more Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball players and strip out some of the 1930s guys who rode the Frisch/Terry Express. More starting pitchers from the 1980s to 2000s. More figures whose influence went beyond the numbers, including John Donaldson, Lefty O’Doul, Fernando Valenzuela, and yes, Tommy John (and Dr. Frank Jobe).
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