Dan Szymborski's NL Central comments

[mikechamp]

These comments came from a chat with FanGraphs' writer Dan Szymborski that occurred on October 1. (If you like him, you can find him on Twitter @DSzymborski.)

It's been a couple weeks. We got a couple more NL Central questions than last time. I also included 1 bonus Q&A about market inefficiencies. Enjoy!

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dan-szymbor ... t-10-1-26/
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Do you think any of the teams with a significant playoff drought will make it next year?

Dan Szymborski
The Pirates *could*. And I think if the Nats had a couple big things go their way in FA, I think they could have enough pitching to be at least interesting.
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What happened with the Cubs? Offense went so cold.

Dan Szymborski
Sometimes team just suck in two games.

The Dodgers had 14 independent losing streaks this year (two games or more). And all of them were to teams worse than them, naturally.

It just comes down to who executed that day, and it's not predictive or meaningful in any sense. Just embrace the chaos.
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Dan, is it too late to make ZiPS project the Padres to be favored over the Brewers? I worry Pat Murphy is running out of motivational material.

Dan Szymborski
Model changes would not be a great idea mid playoffs!

But a good leader can find something to hate.
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What do you make of the starting rotations for the Brewers-Padres series? Seems like Miz being able to start twice is a huge advantage for MIL, while the Padres lack of rotation depth is a negative as these series get longer and longer.

Dan Szymborski
It's very helpful, and you'll see it in the projections!
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If you ran the Cubs, what are the 2-3 moves you’d make to close the gap with Milwaukee? I’m through with the Jed/Carter regime; what would you and ZiPS do?

Dan Szymborski
Really think you need to go all-in on top pitching as much as you can. It's fine to have value guys, but the Cubs had too many value guys.
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I assume Brandon Lowe's All-Star–worthy season has bumped his projections (which were pretty bad), but by how much? Is there any justification for giving him even a medium-sized contract?

Dan Szymborski
Quite a bit – he's a 3.something WAR guy for next year in ZiPS. Nothing crazy, but he should get a pretty good deal.
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What trade do you think Red Sox will make with either the Cardinals/Nationals this offseason?

Dan Szymborski
I could totally see Duran end up with the Cardinals.
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Abstract question about "reverse replacement level": what would production look like if you took a league-average-ish starter (say Kyle Leahy or Alec Burleson) and sent them down to play a full season at each MiLB level (AAA down to FCL)? Besides the hitters probably just getting pitched around, would they put up video game stats or "just" peak SEC-type lines?

Dan Szymborski
Think about 20 points of wRC+ higher than in the majors or so.
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Hot topic for sure right now… what should the Cardinals do at 3B for 2027?

Dan Szymborski
Feels like something that would be a trade.
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Which members of the upcoming 2026 free agency class are flying a bit more under the radar than you would expect, given their underlying data and your projections? Conversely, who seems like an unnecessary overpay risk?

Dan Szymborski
Suzuki maybe? Just feels like he's not talked about a lot relative to his quality.
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I've been following Suzuki since he was with Hiroshima, and thought his underlying numbers would translate well to MLB. In other words, not particularly Tsutsugo-esque. However, I do worry about the aging curve for a 32yo corner outfielder who could end up getting nine figures.

Dan Szymborski
Yeah, but that's the case for most 32 yo cof.
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Do you think the Cardinals make a play for some actual pitching, or be too afraid/cautious after the new CBA?

Dan Szymborski
I think they'll be conservative.
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What is the current "market inefficiency" that savvy teams take advantage of that we might not always think about?

Dan Szymborski
I think there's still a definable difference between teams at identifying OKish players with upside. The Brewers rule this in a way that even the Rays don't.
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