Yadi Redux

[skmsw]

You are assuming that the catcher gets 100% of the blame for passed balls with your assertation though. What if the signs get crossed up?

No, I'm not assuming that at all. I look at expected PB and WP based on the pitching staff and their tendencies (certain traits and profiles correlate highly with WPs and PBs), and compare that to actual. Credit for the difference goes to the catcher.

[Popeye_Card]

You are assuming that the catcher gets 100% of the blame for passed balls with your assertation though. What if the signs get crossed up?

No, I'm not assuming that at all. I look at expected PB and WP based on the pitching staff and their tendencies (certain traits and profiles correlate highly with WPs and PBs), and compare that to actual. Credit for the difference goes to the catcher.

If you've put that much legwork into it, do you have some numbers or just qualitative analysis?

--P--

[skmsw]

You are assuming that the catcher gets 100% of the blame for passed balls with your assertation though. What if the signs get crossed up?

No, I'm not assuming that at all. I look at expected PB and WP based on the pitching staff and their tendencies (certain traits and profiles correlate highly with WPs and PBs), and compare that to actual. Credit for the difference goes to the catcher.

If you've put that much legwork into it, do you have some numbers or just qualitative analysis?

--P--

I can't give you all the numbers, unfortunately. What I can say is this: once again, we are NOT talking about astronomical numbers or huge differences -- another reason why, in my opinion, catcher defense is highly over-valued, and another reason why in general, a "great defensive catcher" is worth less to me than is a marginally adequate defensive catcher who can hit.

Generally speaking, the best catchers in baseball at controlling the running game are worth 5 to 10 runs a year (Yadi was about 8 above average). The best catchers in baseball at preventing missed pitches are worth another 4 to 8 per year, and interestingly, those among the best at controlling runs are often among the worst at preventing missed pitches, which offsets much of their marginal value.

If the best-throwing catcher in baseball were also the best at preventing missed pitches -- then that catcher's defense would be worth 9 to 18 runs per year better than average, or one to two wins. Since it is unusual that a given catcher is BOTH exceptional at controlling runners AND preventing missed pitches (and Yadi, in my opinion and analysis, is NOT among them), in general the best defensive catchers are worth only as much as half that 9-18 runs (if average at one and among the best at the other). If a catcher is above average at one and below average at the other, then we are down to talking about a value above average of only a handful of runs per year altogether. For instance, suppose Yadi is +8 runs for throwing, but -3 runs for preventing missed pitches; his defense in such a scenario would be a net total of 5 runs better than average. How much OPS are we willing to give away for that?

Some of course will bring up other factors such as gamecalling, pitcher confidence, etc. Personally, I've found little evidence for any SIGNIFICANT such effects. I'm not saying it does not exist. But if it does, it makes another teeny tiny difference, or no difference at all (I'd say a few runs per year or less).

The Steverino moral of the story is, do not pay much extra for catcher defense. It is over-valued, and plays a smaller role in run prevention than most think. A good hitter who can play catcher (even marginally to below average defense) is more valuable than an excellent defensive catcher who doesn't hit.

[greenback44]

Generally speaking, the best catchers in baseball at controlling the running game are worth 5 to 10 runs a year (Yadi was about 8 above average).

Clay Davenport disagrees.

I hope you're including pickoffs in your analysis. It makes for a substantial difference in Molina's case.

[cardfaninfla]

I believe Steve's not giving enough credit for runs prevented by Molina because there is no way to figure how many extra bsaes he takes away with his willingness to team up with Pujols and pick guys off first. I would love to get a comparrison of how far off base runners get on other teams as compared to the Cards when Yadi is behind the plate. He completly turned a few games around last year by picking a guy off first in a crucial situation.

[greenback44]

Yadi is a fine receiver and I maintain that he had his offensive
breakthrough in the fiery cauldron that is the post-season.

His breakthrough mysteriously didn't last into Puerto Rican winter ball where he hit .214. The $64,000 question for Molina is whether he can maintain his defensive value. He can't hit a lick.

[skmsw]

Generally speaking, the best catchers in baseball at controlling the running game are worth 5 to 10 runs a year (Yadi was about 8 above average).

Clay Davenport disagrees.

That's OK by me. In my opinion, BP's defensive metrics are the least useful out there (and taint the metrics they use that attempt to incorporate defense), and Davenport Translations add little to the discussion. But aside from my own opinion, I have no beef with anyone who wants to pick him over me.

Interestingly enough, though, even if one DOES accept Davenport Translations (which I do not), Yadi still turns up as a break-even player looking at offense and defense (+3 in 2005; -8 in 2006). His defense makes him about average -- not elite.

Which, as I've said all along, break-even player is fine with me as long as he stays at a break-even salary.

[ghostrunner]

Not saying theres a bias is ridiculous

We Cards fans tend to over-rate Yadi's defense.

You keep saying that, but Yadi's at or near the top of all the defensive metrics I've seen.

Unless you mean over-rate in terms of what that impact is. I don't so much over-rate it as enjoy it a hell of a lot.

-- the bottom line now is that there's no reasonable alternatives this year and Yadi is under contract. I'd say this season will tell us more and it should play out before the club makes a decision on him.

[vinsanity]

The Steverino moral of the story is, do not pay much extra for catcher defense. It is over-valued, and plays a smaller role in run prevention than most think. A good hitter who can play catcher (even marginally to below average defense) is more valuable than an excellent defensive catcher who doesn't hit.

I'll be one of the few to agree. Yes Yadi has a good arm, but I'm not going to sit here and defend him hitting .230 if he starts makin 2 or 3 mil a year for his arm. The team is starved for offensive help as it is, and shelling out money for a catcher cause he has a good arm isn't a great idea, IMO. Why not bring up Anderson or sign another Yadi-esque catcher for less, and then spend the extra money on pitching? Sure Yadi can throw-out 2197034 runners, but if we have better pitchers, we don't need him to throw as many out.

That said, I still hold out hope he found a stroke last fall and he's going to pick it up to 80-85 OPS+ (two seasons above 70, one at 80 so this is reasonable).

Steve, if he hits at an 85 OPS is worth keeping around or are we still better, in your opinion, with an Anderson type player coming up and filling in?

[jagtrader]

Has it gotten to the point where Cardinals fans have to defend Molina's defensive value on a Cardinals board? I mean, really. You can't see it from watching Cardinals games?

What's next? Defending the fact the home caps are red?