Has there ever been a more hollow .292?

jim · Post by **jim** » May 21 07, 7:48 am

docellis wrote:
jim wrote:
Leroy wrote:I like how I'm not supposed to enjoy a player having a little success.
This post, in a nutshell, sums up why it is so difficult to objectively look at players.

Please point to a post that said you can't/shouldn't enjoy a players success?
The title of this thread sort of says not to enjoy it, in a way.

You read more into things than I do then. Except for the fact that it's been beat to death, I think it's a valid point and something interesting to discuss (if it hadn't been discussed so much already).

JL21 · Post by **JL21** » May 21 07, 7:50 am

A few things....

1. Yadi Molina DOES call a good game, whether it's measurable or not.

2. Isn't an empty .293 better than the empty .216 he had last year?

3. While it's not likely to continue, for as "empty" as it is, Yadi's OPS+ is 97, and his OPS is .722. The average NL catcher's OPS is .692. For all the [expletive], Yadi's actually been better than the average catcher, done so while providing above average defense, and also done so for a much, much smaller salary. His OBP is above league average.

Ultimately, does this thread tell us anything we didn't know already? That Yadi's not likely to continue hitting .292? Really, I never would've guessed. I assumed that his fatass was a .300 hitter.

clement · Post by **clement** » May 21 07, 7:54 am

skmsw wrote:Meantime, I'll repeat my oft-stated position that Yadi's defense is worth about two wins per year. Not a huge amount that really changes the balance of his offensive contributions all that much.

How many more wins is hitting .750 instead of .650 OPS worth? .850?

jim · Post by **jim** » May 21 07, 8:01 am

clement wrote:
skmsw wrote:Meantime, I'll repeat my oft-stated position that Yadi's defense is worth about two wins per year. Not a huge amount that really changes the balance of his offensive contributions all that much.
How many more wins is hitting .750 instead of .650 OPS worth? .850?

Right now Yadi has a VORP of 4.4, meaning offensively he's been worth about 1/2 a win more than your AAAA replacement player. We are a quarter of the way through the season, if you project this out and come up with an 18 then you could probably say that Yadi would be worth about 2 wins over the course of a season at this rate. Throw in his defense and you probably end up with about 2 more. Four wins - that's significant. That would easily justify a $8M contract.

I think the issue alot of people have with Yadi is not now, but the future. I'm a little nervous that Yadi is the type of player that a team would be inclined to overpay for. A .260 catcher with a canon of an arm - how much is that worth? Quite a bit I'm guessing, but when your .260 comes without alot of pop I worry about getting your bang for the buck.

But obviously that's a point for future discussion. Right now, Yadi is contributing both at the plate and behind it. I remember well the discussions about Yadi, and almost to a person the "pundits" were saying if he could put up 650-700 OPS his defense would make him a valuable player. The "pundits" were also saying that Yadi probably WOULD fall in that 650-700 range. I distinctly remember steve saying a .750 ceiling - that's pretty sweet.

jim · Post by **jim** » May 21 07, 8:23 am

clement - I don't think I answered your question directly. Here are some sample OPS/VORP's for catchers last year. From that, we can estimate wins.

Mauer .936/66.9
Barrett .885/31.3
Rodriguez: .769/22.0
Kendall: .709/13.2

Divide the VORP by 10 to get an appoximation of wins. So for example the difference between Pudge and Barrett was a little over .100 ops, and about a 10 run difference.

Obviously it's not linear, but maybe that gives you some idea.

clement · Post by **clement** » May 21 07, 8:43 am

jim wrote:clement - I don't think I answered your question directly. Here are some sample OPS/VORP's for catchers last year. From that, we can estimate wins.

Mauer .936/66.9
Barrett .885/31.3
Rodriguez: .769/22.0
Kendall: .709/13.2

Divide the VORP by 10 to get an appoximation of wins. So for example the difference between Pudge and Barrett was a little over .100 ops, and about a 10 run difference.

Obviously it's not linear, but maybe that gives you some idea.

Divide by 10? That would mean a 1 game difference for .100 extra OPS? If that's correct, doesn't mean that the two games that Yadi wins with his defense is worth ~.200 in OPS?

jim · Post by **jim** » May 21 07, 8:52 am

clement wrote:
jim wrote:clement - I don't think I answered your question directly. Here are some sample OPS/VORP's for catchers last year. From that, we can estimate wins.

Mauer .936/66.9
Barrett .885/31.3
Rodriguez: .769/22.0
Kendall: .709/13.2

Divide the VORP by 10 to get an appoximation of wins. So for example the difference between Pudge and Barrett was a little over .100 ops, and about a 10 run difference.

Obviously it's not linear, but maybe that gives you some idea.
Divide by 10? That would mean a 1 game difference for .100 extra OPS? If that's correct, doesn't mean that the two games that Yadi wins with his defense is worth ~.200 in OPS?

It's not linear. VORP also measures other things besides OPS (stolen bases, caught stealing, sac bunts etc...).

Last year Yadi had a VORP of -19.7. So, generally speaking, Yadi was good for 2 losses more on the offensive side as a replacement AAAA player. His OPS was .595. Pudge at less than .200 OPS more put up a 22.0, much more than 1win per 100 OPS that you are using.

I tried to calculate the value of throwing runners out compared to Michael Barrett. It's not accurate, because I tried to equate a caught stealing with turning an offensive hit into an out. The problem with that is it's not quite the same, a guy singles with 2 outs and runners on 2+3 and then gets thrown out is quite a bit of a different story than not getting the hit at all. But it was some attempt to quantify the benefit of Yadi's arm...

http://gatewayredbirds.com/forum/viewto ... c&start=62

greenback44 · Post by **greenback44** » May 21 07, 9:40 am

haltz wrote:
Are there Cardinal fans that are out there rooting against Yadi just so they won't have to worry about explaining all of their negativity towards him?
Maybe, but they haven't posted in this thread.

Yeah, I've been working on something else.

greenback44 · Post by **greenback44** » May 21 07, 9:45 am

RC21 wrote:1. Yadi Molina DOES call a good game, whether it's measurable or not.

How do we know this? You all-capped a word, so you're required to answer.

While he obviously doesn't have the arm Yadier has, I feel more comfortable with Bennett behind the plate, especially when one of the kids is on the mound.

JL21 · Post by **JL21** » May 21 07, 9:52 am

greenback44 wrote:
RC21 wrote:1. Yadi Molina DOES call a good game, whether it's measurable or not.
How do we know this? You all-capped a word, so you're required to answer.

While he obviously doesn't have the arm Yadier has, I feel more comfortable with Bennett behind the plate, especially when one of the kids is on the mound.

A few ways...

1. Pay attention to pitch patterns. Watch the way he sets up hitters. He's very, very good at speeding up/slowing down a hitter's bat and then capitalizing.

2. Look at what the pitchers have to say about him when he's not in the lineup, for instance. The P-D just ran an article not too long ago about how comfortable they are with him behind the plate. Back in 2005, the SP's hit a little rough patch when Yadi was on the shelf and Bernie posted some comments from Carpenter attributing it to Yadi's being out.

Not that I think Bennett is particularly bad at calling a game, but I'd much, much rather have Yadi than any catcher this team has had since I started paying attention to such things in the late 90's.