Has there ever been a more hollow .292?

[Balltilyafall4]

I think everyone here knows Yadi's limitations.

I think they've been amply covered (my god, have they) over the last few years between here and CT.

I don't know of anyone who has expressed a certain belief that he's turned a corner. I think I may have done so in a chat, completely in jest, because for some reason he's a hot button issue.

I don't agree with this at all. I think there are numerous people on these boards who believe that Yadi has turned the corner and, because of his age, still has a lot of time and potential to develop into a competent major league hitter.

I'm not going to call people out, though, because that would be stupid.

:cheers:

That's me raising my hand as one of the people who think he has turned a corner..

I'm also one of those people on here that a) don't think he's going to be a career .290 hitter (or even a .290 hitter this year)...b) be worth paying 7-8 million dollars a season, c) thinks he still has some major faults in his game..

That being said, I don't think he's as bad as was shown last year, I DO think he can maintain between a .270-.280 avg over the course of a season, I DO think he has taken a much better approach to the plate this season even if the walk numbers don't show that, and I do think we will never ever see the kind of power out of him that so many people may want to see....

I don't feel that he has turned a corner because he's hitting .292 right now, because it is what it is...he's riding a 13 game hitting streak and hitting very well right now...he'll come back down to earth...but again, I think he will come back down into the .270-.280 range and not the .250-.260 range we have seen in the past..

So..in conclusion here....my optimism for Yadi has only been fueled by his hot start, but my optimism for him was there LONG before he started out the first month and a half of the season hitting .292..

Great thread, btw...everyone has made really good points..

[Jmodene]

Speaking of hollow .290 hitters, Goold, in an article on 5/22 touting Molina for the all-star game, notes that Paul Loduca is htting (as of that writing) .292/.340/.369 to Yadi's .294/.355/.367 - in other words, Loduca, who has a reputation as a good-hitting catcher, has an OPS of .709 to Yadi's .722.

The article is pretty interesting.

http://www.stltoday.com/blogs/sports-bi ... -all-star/

[JL21]

In the interest of providing the saber-friendly balance to Snayke's original post.... Check this out from Fan Graphs:

–Yadier Molina extended his hit streak to 15 days. He went 2 for 3 with a double and drove in 2 runs, and led all batters with a .144 WPA. His double to left to score So Taguchi in the 2nd inning was the biggest offensive play of the game, good for a .117 WPA. Earlier this week over at the official site Matt Leach ran an article re: Yadi’s rebirth since the postseason. Says the Cardinal catcher:

“I’m just trying to wait for my pitch and make a good swing,” Molina said. “That’s it, man. I don’t know. I don’t know what you want to hear, but that’s the basics. I’m learning to wait for my pitch. If it’s not there, I don’t swing at it.”

Based on his walk rate, Yadi certainly has stepped up his patience from bad level to slightly above league average.



With more walks, he’s also striking out a little bit more suggesting he’s opening up a little.



Without posting the graph, Yadier’s percentage of line drives is 23%, which is about 4% higher then his career rates. It’s still pretty early in the season and I’m not suggesting for certain that he’s a .300 hitter, but I never thought he was a .216 hitter, either. His first few seasons at the plate have been hallmarked by bad luck. Over the last few seasons Yadi’s OPS-PrOPS differentials have been:

-04 PrOPS .729, OPS .684. Difference -0.044.
-05 PrOPS .752, OPS .654. Diff: -0.098.
-06 PrOPS .725, OPS .595. Diff: -0.130.
-07 PrOPS .733, OPS .747. Diff: +0.014.

For those of you who don’t know, PrOPS stands for predicted OPS. It’s a formula for predicting what a player’s OPS is likely to be in the future based on the hitters batted balls, strikeouts, home runs and walks. It was created by J.C. Bradbury. For more on the that, click here.

Yadier’s consistently been unlucky, and at least for right now, his luck has appeared to turn, as he’s hitting for a unsubstantially high BABIP.



Yadier’s not a just not a Mendoza line hitter, league average or slightly below is more like it. Couple that with his outstanding defense and you have a pretty nifty little player.

[Cronos]

Speaking of hollow .290 hitters, Goold, in an article on 5/22 touting Molina for the all-star game, notes that Paul Loduca is htting (as of that writing) .292/.340/.369 to Yadi's .294/.355/.367 - in other words, Loduca, who has a reputation as a good-hitting catcher, has an OPS of .709 to Yadi's .722.

The article is pretty interesting.

http://www.stltoday.com/blogs/sports-bi ... -all-star/

To Snayke's credit, he's pointed out numerous times how LoDuca is a very light hitting catcher despite his average. I fell for one of his decent power seasons a couple of years ago and took him as my catcher...and instantly lost my fantasy league.

[skmsw]

“I’m just trying to wait for my pitch and make a good swing,” Molina said. “That’s it, man. I don’t know. I don’t know what you want to hear, but that’s the basics. I’m learning to wait for my pitch. If it’s not there, I don’t swing at it.”

He may FEEL that way, but it is almost assuredly NOT the secret to his current success.

For the year, yadi is still in the bottom ten in all of baseball in pitches seen per at-bat.

For the 15-game streak, he has walked unintentionally exactly once, in 54 plate appearances. And for the year, of his total of ten unintentional walks, SEVEN came in a single four-game stretch, suggesting something of a greater likelihood that he was seeing very wild pitching in those four games than some rebirth in his approach; since that single four-game stretch, he has gone 76 AB and walked twice.

Mind you I am NOT saying Yadi is not hitting well. He is. I really hope he keeps it up. But there really is no evidence suggesting that the "new Yadi" is a "more patient Yadi," despite his quote above. He may FEEL like he is waiting more, but the truth is, he is seeing as few pitches as ever, and the way his walks have come kind've scream sampling error.

His first few seasons at the plate have been hallmarked by bad luck. Over the last few seasons Yadi’s OPS-PrOPS differentials have been:

-04 PrOPS .729, OPS .684. Difference -0.044.
-05 PrOPS .752, OPS .654. Diff: -0.098.
-06 PrOPS .725, OPS .595. Diff: -0.130.
-07 PrOPS .733, OPS .747. Diff: +0.014.

For those of you who don’t know, PrOPS stands for predicted OPS. It’s a formula for predicting what a player’s OPS is likely to be in the future based on the hitters batted balls, strikeouts, home runs and walks.

These numbers change if you account for vector data. Not all line drives are created equally, and Yadi's PrOPS deficits are not all bad luck.

[Popeye_Card]

In the interest of providing the saber-friendly balance to Snayke's original post.... Check this out from Fan Graphs:

–Yadier Molina extended his hit streak to 15 days. He went 2 for 3 with a double and drove in 2 runs, and led all batters with a .144 WPA. His double to left to score So Taguchi in the 2nd inning was the biggest offensive play of the game, good for a .117 WPA. Earlier this week over at the official site Matt Leach ran an article re: Yadi’s rebirth since the postseason. Says the Cardinal catcher:

“I’m just trying to wait for my pitch and make a good swing,” Molina said. “That’s it, man. I don’t know. I don’t know what you want to hear, but that’s the basics. I’m learning to wait for my pitch. If it’s not there, I don’t swing at it.”

Based on his walk rate, Yadi certainly has stepped up his patience from bad level to slightly above league average.



With more walks, he’s also striking out a little bit more suggesting he’s opening up a little.



Without posting the graph, Yadier’s percentage of line drives is 23%, which is about 4% higher then his career rates. It’s still pretty early in the season and I’m not suggesting for certain that he’s a .300 hitter, but I never thought he was a .216 hitter, either. His first few seasons at the plate have been hallmarked by bad luck. Over the last few seasons Yadi’s OPS-PrOPS differentials have been:

-04 PrOPS .729, OPS .684. Difference -0.044.
-05 PrOPS .752, OPS .654. Diff: -0.098.
-06 PrOPS .725, OPS .595. Diff: -0.130.
-07 PrOPS .733, OPS .747. Diff: +0.014.

For those of you who don’t know, PrOPS stands for predicted OPS. It’s a formula for predicting what a player’s OPS is likely to be in the future based on the hitters batted balls, strikeouts, home runs and walks. It was created by J.C. Bradbury. For more on the that, click here.

Yadier’s consistently been unlucky, and at least for right now, his luck has appeared to turn, as he’s hitting for a unsubstantially high BABIP.



Yadier’s not a just not a Mendoza line hitter, league average or slightly below is more like it. Couple that with his outstanding defense and you have a pretty nifty little player.

Shame on you moderator. You did not provide a link. Plagerizer.

--P--

[lukethedrifter]

I remember well the Redbirds of the late 70s with 6 or 7 .300 hitters. I believe SI did a cover of that Murderers Row.

[JL21]

Shame on you moderator. You did not provide a link. Plagerizer.

--P--

Ah. Thanks for keeping me in line.

To elaborate on what's up there....

To be honest, as Steve points out and Snayke pointed out originally, there are sample size issues with the walk rate. It's yet to be seen if he's going to maintain his walk rate through the year. And he's still not hitting for power (his ISO is actually lower than his career rate).

But the important thing to walk away with is that his LD% is up, which adds some credibility to the spike in batting average, and that provides some support for the OPS and OPS+ spike, which are above average for an NL catcher at this point. And while Steve has made some pretty good arguments against hte PrOPS numbers in the past, that big elephant in the room is still there.

[Leroy]

Well maybe he doesn't need to wait long for a pitch because pitchers figure he can't hit a get me over fastball anyway.

Anything's possible.

[jim]

But the important thing to walk away with is that his LD% is up, which adds some credibility to the spike in batting average, and that provides some support for the OPS and OPS+ spike, which are above average for an NL catcher at this point. And while Steve has made some pretty good arguments against hte PrOPS numbers in the past, that big elephant in the room is still there.

And even with the PrOPS debate, did anyone think that last years abysmal numbers were at least somewhat impacted by bad luck?

He could have hit exactly like last year and I'm pretty sure we would have seen a .600+ OPS.