Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus (Update: Finalized!)

[Magneto2.0]

Mag, I think you're really selling short the defensive difference. Rolen is so solid defensively that he really blows into the offensive gap more significantly than you're giving credit.

That is probably true, however, I don't think that defense is nearly as important to teams production as offense is.

For example, if I'm an NL team and I had to choose either David Ortiz or Todd Helton, I'm taking Ortiz 10 times out of 10.

[Fat Strat]

Mag, I think you're really selling short the defensive difference. Rolen is so solid defensively that he really blows into the offensive gap more significantly than you're giving credit.

That's the hardest part of this deal to measure because Glaus really isn't that bad defensively. Yes, Rolen is an incredible defensive talent, but I think it's awful hard to quantify that value over Glaus in either a wins added or a runs added scenario. But, even the defense issue goes back to Rolen's health. The defense issue is negated if Rolen continues to hit at a 700 OPS clip and starts losing playing time OR his shoulder collapses and he hits the DL again. Obviously, Glaus faces similar questions about his health.

Frankly, there is no real way to judge this deal yet. We don't have enough information and the information we have isn't what we really need.

[haltz]

Last three seasons, Glaus has proven to be a much, much more dangerous hitter.

This isn't a 5x5 league.

Glaus has been 13 runs better with the bat on average. Rolen has been 24 runs better with the glove on average. These are counting stats (lwts BtRuns, UZR) and incorporate the PT advantage of 110 games that Glaus has.

If Rolen rebounds at all he's a much better player, and if his shoulder is really shot why do the Jays pull the trigger? It's an inexact science, but Toronto has much more medical information than any of us do.

[Magneto2.0]

Last three seasons, Glaus has proven to be a much, much more dangerous hitter.

This isn't a 5x5 league.

Glaus has been 13 runs better with the bat on average. Rolen has been 24 runs better with the glove on average. These are counting stats (lwts BtRuns, UZR) and incorporate the PT advantage of 110 games that Glaus has.

If Rolen rebounds at all he's a much better player, and if his shoulder is really shot why do the Jays pull the trigger? It's an inexact science, but Toronto has much more medical information than any of us do.

I don't put much stock into any defensive metric or its value. I think it's very hard to qualify defensive ability statistically.

And Toronto could be making the deal for a few reasons, defense, Rolen, if ever health again, has a higher peak value, and they might want to distance themselves from a Roider.

[Fat Strat]

It's an inexact science, but Toronto has much more medical information than any of us do.

Medically, doctors have been telling Rolen that's he's been fine to play at various points over the last three seasons, and it hasn't made him into the player that he should be. They're taking on a great deal of risk, and they know that. He might indeed be perfectly healthy, but that shoulder doesn't have the freedom of motion that it had in '04 and I would wager that it doesn't have the same freedom of motion that it had in '06 right now after another surgery.

[EastonBlues22]

Rolen's cumulative WARP for past 3 seasons: 14.7 in 309 games

Glaus's cumulative Warp for past 3 seasons: 15.2 in 417 games


Rolen is quite obviously the far superior player....so I guess that's not in question as far as the value of the trade...
although, if Rolen continues to hit like he did last year then Glaus does have a good sized advantage offensively...

As a general note, I don't see why we should be including 3 year splits in this discussion. For one, Rolen only played 50 something games in 2005...that's hardly a significant sample size. Also, what we're most concerned about is Rolen moving forward and I don't see how factoring in those 50 games prior to the extended layoff are really all that relevant.

Rolen hasn't been "quite obviously superior" to Glaus since 2004. That was 4 years ago. Last three seasons, Glaus has proven to be a much, much more dangerous hitter.

Factoring in defense, Rolen was quite superior in his (post-surgery) 2006 season.

Well, based off recent history, the Cardinals are indeed a significantly better team with Glaus as oppose to Rolen.

If by recent history you mean 2007, then we're not significantly better...we're about even. If by recent history history you mean 2006, then we're clearly worse off.

Rolen will more then likely, never see a 20 HR season again in his life.

What exactly are you basing this on? Rolen hit 22 HRs in 2006 in 142 games...again, post surgery, in a year when he was clearly superior to Gaus. You can't make a statement like this with any level of confidence based on one crappy year where he stupidly played through soreness and inflicted no additional structural damage to the region.

The subtle differences wont be apparent. I think we realize that Rolen makes/made plays no other 3rd baseman in history has, but on a day in, day out basis, I don't think we'll recognize it much. Glaus is fairly decent, definitely has a strong arm.

You're really understating the defensive difference between the two...even if Rolen *isn't* healthy. The gap is significant, and the difference in runs prevented counts just as much as the difference in runs created. The fact that it's less noticeable is irrelevant.

[haltz]

I don't put much stock into any defensive metric or its value. I think it's very hard to qualify defensive ability statistically.

Well, that's your loss. Let's put it another way, you don't think it's likely that Rolen is 13 runs better on defense? That's what it would take. Injuries and playing time included.

And Toronto could be making the deal for a few reasons, defense, Rolen, if ever health again, has a higher peak value, and they might want to distance themselves from a Roider.

And the Cardinals are limited upside by getting a player the manager prefers. Sounds familiar. FWIW, Glaus hasn't skipped a beat offensively since he purchased PEDs in late 2003 and early 2004 (according to the Mitchell Report).

[picasso]

I'd rather have the player who plays. Most indicators suggest the player who plays provides greater value.

[haltz]

He might indeed be perfectly healthy, but that shoulder doesn't have the freedom of motion that it had in '04 and I would wager that it doesn't have the same freedom of motion that it had in '06 right now after another surgery.

As cpebbles (I think, right?) points out at BTF, his range of motion and strength are exactly what the doctors will check. How that translates to the field, I don't know. I guess you could argue that the Cardinals have the continuity of care advantage in this whole thing, and I wish I trusted the Cardinals doctors when it came to Rolen, or that was the reason I think he's being moved.

[Magneto2.0]

I don't put much stock into any defensive metric or its value. I think it's very hard to qualify defensive ability statistically.

Well, that's your loss. Let's put it another way, you don't think it's likely that Rolen is 13 runs better on defense? That's what it would take. Injuries and playing time included.

And Toronto could be making the deal for a few reasons, defense, Rolen, if ever health again, has a higher peak value, and they might want to distance themselves from a Roider.

And the Cardinals are limited upside by getting a player the manager prefers. Sounds familiar. FWIW, Glaus hasn't skipped a beat offensively since he purchased PEDs in late 2003 and early 2004 (according to the Mitchell Report).

I don't even know about that. 13 runs seems like a bit much. Glaus is pretty solid from what I've seen. He's no Rolen, but he's also not Braun.

The upside might not be higher, but it's more reasonable to believe that Glaus will repeat his recent production, then that Rolen will revert back to 2004, or even 2006.