Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus (Update: Finalized!)

[EastonBlues22]

Personally, I'm not interested in downgrading the talent of this team the least little bit simply because of some stupid spat if I'm the GM. I don't care who started it or why it's still continuing...my rebuilding job is already difficult enough as it is without taking another small step back.

If I'm John Mozeliak, I might take the job on whatever terms it's offered to me. It speaks volumes that Tony was given $8 million to come back before any progress was made with the GM search, and then there's whatever you want to infer from the way Hahn and Antonetti acted.

I think you might be assuming too much autonomy on Mo's part, but that is admittedly just my pessimistic (and probably even less popular than the one you and I share about the Rolen trade) opinion.

If Moz has that little autonomy, then that dampens my hope for this team's immediate-ish future *much* more than this trade does.

We can't do anything other than speculate on a topic like that, so I prefer to ignore it completely. Our discussions about Moz/management/etc. would never get anywhere if we didn't even know how much of "Moz's decisions" were actually Moz. It would be like trying to build a house on a sand foundation.

If in time we continue to see moves with apparently conflicting underlying motivations, then maybe I'll revisit my thoughts and ponder how much TLR and Dewitt are influencing Moz...but if things are blatant enough that I reach that point, then this team is going to be in big trouble.

[dangerous]

If Shane Hillenbrandt's wife had not gotten pregnant, this trade would have been with Arizona, or not at all.

[haltz]

If in time we continue to see moves with apparently conflicting underlying motivations, then maybe I'll revisit my thoughts and ponder how much TLR and Dewitt are influencing Moz...but if things are blatant enough that I reach that point, then this team is going to be in big trouble.

I think we're already there, which is certainly no secret. It scared me right when LaRussa was given that contract which reflected poor prioritizing in my mind. Hahn and Antonetti were perhaps scared off. Pineiro was given a bad deal. Brendan Ryan has been banished to purgatory. Miles and Izturis are both on the roster. Rolen is shipped out in a deal that doesn't help beyond 2009 (and arguably at all). Matt Clement is an NLC sinker-tossing has-been. Speculation about a Molina extension and zero talk of Duncan being moved. Reyes for a non-tender was supposedly discussed.

I even liked the Clement deal and don't view those things as individual indictments, but this sort of thing is piling up fast.

We'll see what happens. I don't presume to have all the information, but I think the warning signs have been there. Brian Barton dropping in the rule 5 draft, and being a no-brainer just doesn't carry that much weight with me.

[EastonBlues22]

I think we're already there, which is certainly no secret. It scared me right when LaRussa was given that contract which reflected poor prioritizing in my mind. Hahn and Antonetti were perhaps scared off. Pineiro was given a bad deal. Brendan Ryan has been banished to purgatory. Miles and Izturis are both on the roster. Rolen is shipped out in a deal that doesn't help beyond 2009 (and arguably at all). Matt Clement is an NLC sinker-tossing has-been. Speculation about a Molina extension and zero talk of Duncan being moved. Reyes for a non-tender was supposedly discussed.

I even liked the Clement deal and don't view those things as individual indictments, but this sort of thing is piling up fast.

We'll see what happens. I don't presume to have all the information, but I think the warning signs have been there. Brian Barton dropping in the rule 5 draft, and being a no-brainer just doesn't carry that much weight with me.

I'm going to withhold any judgement for at least one full season to see what happens...I'm especially interested to see what happens at the trade deadline this upcoming season.

I understand the need to at least appear like the team is trying to field a "competitive product" after last year and with it being Moz's first year on the job. Ignoring this latest move for a moment, almost everything he's done is a cheap attempt to "bolster" the 2008 roster (or at least give the appearance of such) without compromising much for 2009 or beyond. I think 2008 is a throwaway year, so he can do almost whatever he wants there as long as he doesn't screw up the future in doing so...and, again ignoring the latest move, so far he hasn't.

On the flip side, he also hasn't improved the long-term prospects of this team to any appreciable degree either. If he's "bolstering" the roster knowing that we're going to fall out of contention in 2008, and then use that as an excuse to hold a fire-sale and do some real building for 2009+...then that would be a unexpectedly savvy move and my estimation of his abilities/plan would rise dramatically. If the team performs in the range of mediocre to suck and we sit on our hands all year and through next offseason, then I'm going to know we've got the wrong guy(s) making decisions up top. Basically, I'm waiting for him to do something (or not do something obvious) that affects 2009+ before I start forming conclusions about his abilities.

[haltz]

If he's "bolstering" the roster knowing that we're going to fall out of contention in 2008, and then use that as an excuse to hold a fire-sale and do some real building for 2009+...then that would be a unexpectedly savvy move and my estimation of his abilities/plan would rise dramatically.

First of all, I don't mind if people aren't jumping to conclusions like I am. I admit that there are some assumptions there, but I've yet to see something that doesn't look like it was influenced by TLR. In a down year, that's somewhat understandable if you think the manager is an asset, so it could be both. I just think it's unfortunately more than that, and that it has actually hurt the team.

Anyway, I'm curious what you mean in the part of your post that I quoted. Like, "hey, we tried, but we need to really overhaul things now"? We have five players under control for 2009, and Carpenter will gain 10 and 5 rights. Pineiro, Kennedy and Franklin won't command much. Do you mean a complete overhaul with the players under control as well? Why wouldn't he trade Duncan or Molina now (or anyone) if that was a part of some plan?

There is tons of "flexibility" after this year, room for prospects or FA signings or whatever, money of the books, all of which is generally what people try to gain with a fire sale, if I understand the term correctly.

[EastonBlues22]

If he's "bolstering" the roster knowing that we're going to fall out of contention in 2008, and then use that as an excuse to hold a fire-sale and do some real building for 2009+...then that would be a unexpectedly savvy move and my estimation of his abilities/plan would rise dramatically.

First of all, I don't mind if people aren't jumping to conclusions like I am. I admit that there are some assumptions there, but I've yet to see something that doesn't look like it was influenced by TLR. In a down year, that's somewhat understandable if you think the manager is an asset, so it could be both. I just think it's unfortunately more than that, and that it has actually hurt the team.

Anyway, I'm curious what you mean in the part of your post that I quoted. Like, "hey, we tried, but we need to really overhaul things now"? We have five players under control for 2009, and Carpenter will gain 10 and 5 rights. Pineiro, Kennedy and Franklin won't command much. Do you mean a complete overhaul with the players under control as well? Why wouldn't he trade Duncan or Molina now (or anyone) if that was a part of some plan?

There is tons of "flexibility" after this year, room for prospects or FA signings or whatever, money of the books, all of which is generally what people try to gain with a fire sale, if I understand the term correctly.

I'm not sure Mr Average Fan would react well to a firesale in Moz's first offseason, especially after last year's disappointment and one year removed from a WS title. Izzy is a perfect example. He's a prime candidate to move for future pieces, but there's absolutely no reason to move him unless you're throwing in the towel on 2008...something that probably seems very premature to many fans. So, you "play for 2008" without damaging 2009+ until the team is obviously at a point where such a move is justified. Then you pull the trigger, building for 2009+ without the appearance of throwing in the towel before 2008 even started.

The Rolen and Edmonds moves can both be justified...they both requested a trade, and we have Rasmus ready to step in soon in CF and Glaus (whose HRs will help obscure his deficiencies in other areas) is coming back for Rolen. But dismantling the roster beyond those two in an attempt to build for 2009+ would probably prompt a lot of negative mumblings...most fans probably wouldn't understand it, and wouldn't see it as being justified.

So, you pay lip service to fielding a "competitve" 2008 team...bring in a decent BA/glove guy and talk him up (even though informed fans know he's crap) so you can avoid retaining a guy who is a fan favorite but who you have no interest in retaining long-term. Sign your second best pitcher from last year to a relatively minor deal. Bring in some other cheap temporary parts who "may contribute." You start the season knowing you're going to suck but hoping the fans think you at least tried. Predictably, the team procedes to suck.

Midseason rolls around...you've got a lot of parts on one year deals and a few of them are even doing well. Might as well move them, they're going to walk after this year for nothing anyway. Some other guys just suck...oh well, this season's going nowhere, might as well give the kids some serious playing time and see what they do with it. This is Izzy's last year with us...maybe he wants one last shot at the playoffs. Wait, he said he does? Well certainly we're going to accomodate his wishes, given what he's done for the team and with us being the class organization that we are. Any other vets feel the same way? <I think you get my point.>

If he can somehow turn some of these guys into useful (or potential) cogs for 2009+ during the season, then I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and just assume that he originally signed them with the intention of moving some parts for futures during the season once things fell apart. If we sit on the entire collection all year, then I'll be more inclined to think that they really were playing for 2008, and were not at any point acting on a greater plan for 2009+.

Edit: By "firesale" I mean the movement of any more currently "established" pieces for pieces more compatible with our future plans that might take place.

[haltz]

OK, at least I understand your thought process now. It's a sad day if we've signed Joel Pineiro, Cesar Izturis, and Aaron Miles to make up for the PR hit of dismantling MV3.

I want to meet some of these fans that think those guys will make us "compete" or whatever.

EDIT: Actually, I don't think that makes sense. Those signings won't go far at all in any fashion.

[EastonBlues22]

OK, at least I understand your thought process now. It's a sad day if we've signed Joel Pineiro, Cesar Izturis, and Aaron Miles to make up for the PR hit of dismantling MV3.

I agree, but doesn't that beat the hell out of the alternative that we signed them because we think they're actually good?

[haltz]

OK, at least I understand your thought process now. It's a sad day if we've signed Joel Pineiro, Cesar Izturis, and Aaron Miles to make up for the PR hit of dismantling MV3.

I agree, but doesn't that beat the hell out of the alternative that we signed them because we think they're actually good?

Well, we just have two different rationalizations to avoid that awful conclusion. I don't think Mo is that stupid. He can't be.

[EastonBlues22]

OK, at least I understand your thought process now. It's a sad day if we've signed Joel Pineiro, Cesar Izturis, and Aaron Miles to make up for the PR hit of dismantling MV3.

I agree, but doesn't that beat the hell out of the alternative that we signed them because we think they're actually good?

Well, we just have two different rationalizations to avoid that awful conclusion. I don't think Mo is that stupid. He can't be.

I haven't completely rationalized it yet...it all depends on what he does during the season.

If he builds for 2009+, then hope blossoms and I gladly rationalize away the stupid 2008 moves.
If he doesn't, then dispair ensues followed by a conscious acknowledgment that our leadership sucks.