Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

[Arthur Dent]

McCain from last November on Sub-prime mortgages:

http://www.nhelects.com/NHPrimaryVideos ... le=VLTitle

That interview format was extremely refreshing. Not being on TV and the ability to give long answers made that much more productive the most other candidate events I've seen. Looking at some of the other videos, it makes sense that Obama and Clinton were the favorites.

As to McCain, yes, he should have known that a collapse in the housing bubble was coming, but I guess I don't hold that against him too much. As far as I know, he was not denying the bubble as were many press articles that used as a primary source the former National Association of Realtors chief economist David Lereah author of Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust - And How You Can Profit from It. Other (particularly Alan Greenspan) are much more responsible for this mess.

I was much more bothered by his responses on Iraq (still claims it was a "threat" with links to Al-Qaeda pre-invasion, believes it would be a pro-American democracy protecting our oil if not for occupation mistakes) and Social Security (it's clear he doesn't know how the program works and has simply been shown a chart that supposedly shows there is a financial crisis, believes it can be "fixed" without cutting benefits or increasing taxes).

[PujolJunkie]

Indiana(Rasmussen):
McCain 49, Obama 47

Marist is NOT a very good Pollster. It's toward the bottom of the 538 rankings. If you add two to McCain's side in every result, you'll probably get a better result. In Michigan, it's probably something like 50/45. In Ohio, I'd say it's tied and in Pennsylvania, I'd say closer to 49/46. The Rasmussen Indiana poll looks pretty solid.

I disagree. Rasmussen consistently leans to the right.

I think the Indiana result (McCain up by 2) by Rasmussen
is fantastic, as the reality is probably Obama up by 1 or
even 2 percent.

In Indiana, of all places.

I find Gallup to be most reliable.

Latest trend chart:



Palin bounce is over.

I think the closer idea, since Scotty Rasmussen switched his party ID, is a tie. The party ID shift polls extra Republicans and only gives Democrats a 5+.

Gallup is extremely reliable and I think it's probably been the closest thing to the truth lately. I trust the Research 2000 poll, too, pretty handily.

The thing about state polls is a lot of the time, pollsters only poll 600 voters or so. And in a place like Ohio or Pennsylvania or Florida where every single county in the state could vote different, that's not an accurate representation of the electorate of that state.

EDIT: About the Palin bounce..

[PujolJunkie]

Okay, Diageo is up.

Obama +4 on Gallup
Obama +7 on R2000
Obama +1 on Diageo/Hotline
Tied on Rasmussen

[Radbird]

I was much more bothered by his responses on Iraq (still claims it was a "threat" with links to Al-Qaeda pre-invasion, believes it would be a pro-American democracy protecting our oil if not for occupation mistakes) and Social Security (it's clear he doesn't know how the program works and has simply been shown a chart that supposedly shows there is a financial crisis, believes it can be "fixed" without cutting benefits or increasing taxes).

Here's the problem I'm having with McCain. I'm sensing that a large amount of McCain's (and Palin's) comments are driven by "talking point" type information shoved in front of him just before his appearances. That's why we're seeing muddled, inconsistent and somewhat contradictory responses from him. I know this is true of all campaigns to some extent, but it looks to be more prevalent with McCain/Palin than with Obama/Biden.

Maybe they're just better "actors", but I don't get such a scripted feeling from Obama or Biden.

[jim]

I was much more bothered by his responses on Iraq (still claims it was a "threat" with links to Al-Qaeda pre-invasion, believes it would be a pro-American democracy protecting our oil if not for occupation mistakes) and Social Security (it's clear he doesn't know how the program works and has simply been shown a chart that supposedly shows there is a financial crisis, believes it can be "fixed" without cutting benefits or increasing taxes).

Here's the problem I'm having with McCain. I'm sensing that a large amount of McCain's (and Palin's) comments are driven by "talking point" type information shoved in front of him just before his appearances. That's why we're seeing muddled, inconsistent and somewhat contradictory responses from him. I know this is true of all campaigns to some extent, but it looks to be more prevalent with McCain/Palin than with Obama/Biden.

Maybe they're just better "actors", but I don't get such a scripted feeling from Obama or Biden.

That had a piece on this last night on CNN, talking to a reporter that has been with the McCain campaign for several months. His comments were that it was night and day between now and the primary, that it's completely scripted. He called it "more professional", but he really wasn't using it as a compliment. He was saying that in the primary when you were on the plane McCain would often have these informal conferences, that the plane is actually setup for them. Now, McCain isn't even visible outside of the VIP quarters except for a lifesize cutout of him.

I think there is some confusion right now, and they are trying not to make a mistake. He's really shifted his stances on several things 180 degrees recently (no off shore drilling or ANWAR to "DRILL BABY DRILL" within a few months, the need to deregulate the financial markets to now saying that it is needed etc...).

To me, it seems like they are still trying to find their identity, and I'm not sure what that is all about. McCain was an underdog in the primary elections, he took stances that weren't always popular and preached a consistent message. Why they would decide to change tactics now is kind of a head scratcher to me. It's sort of like sports team doing the same thing all year with good results and then just completely changing your style for the big game.

Of course you know my leanings so you can dismiss them as such, I think it would be interesting to see if anyone like fat etc... see any sort of redefining of the candidate on the fly that I seem to see.

[BW23]

I was much more bothered by his responses on Iraq (still claims it was a "threat" with links to Al-Qaeda pre-invasion, believes it would be a pro-American democracy protecting our oil if not for occupation mistakes) and Social Security (it's clear he doesn't know how the program works and has simply been shown a chart that supposedly shows there is a financial crisis, believes it can be "fixed" without cutting benefits or increasing taxes).

Here's the problem I'm having with McCain. I'm sensing that a large amount of McCain's (and Palin's) comments are driven by "talking point" type information shoved in front of him just before his appearances. That's why we're seeing muddled, inconsistent and somewhat contradictory responses from him. I know this is true of all campaigns to some extent, but it looks to be more prevalent with McCain/Palin than with Obama/Biden.

Maybe they're just better "actors", but I don't get such a scripted feeling from Obama or Biden.

Obama is completely scripted. Just watch when his teleprompter goes out, which it does. But now it's with him all the time.

[cpebbles]

McCain has spent the last decade plus reversing course on his platform for political expediency. The McCain that's running against Barack Obama is practically a polar opposite of the one who ran against George Bush. I guess this makes him no different from most politicians, but his entire political persona is that he is not a typical politician.

[UK]

Odd random thought of the day, if JFK Jr. was alive and pursued a career in politics, this would like have been the year of his running for office, correct?

John John, when god created someone to run for office they molded him.

He had the qualities:

1)Political family
2)Intelligence
3)Good looking
4)Charisma

[JL21]

Odd random thought of the day, if JFK Jr. was alive and pursued a career in politics, this would like have been the year of his running for office, correct?

John John, when god created someone to run for office they molded him.

He had the qualities:

1)Political family
2)Intelligence
3)Good looking
4)Charisma

He didn't have any interest in it, though, did he? He was almost 40 when he died and had pursued everything else besides politics- publishing, aviation, a failed attempt at law...

I never got the positive vibes from JFK, Jr. that others did.

[tothebeach08]

I never got the positive vibes from JFK, Jr. that others did.

I'll say this only because I know it's expected and also because it is true (plus you guys turned that prime minister thread into a hot or not so you deserve this)

The only vibes I ever got from JFK, Jr were good, really good.