Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

[PujolJunkie]

Polling Update:

Obama +6 on Gallup(O 50, M 44)
Obama +1 on Rasmussen(O 48, M 47)
Obama +8 on R2000(O 50, M 42)
Obama +1 on Diageo/Hotline(O 45, M 44)

[PujolJunkie]

Holy crap. Huge post over at 538 about cell phone polling.. wow.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/ ... oints.html

Six of the seven cellphone-friendly pollsters have had a Democratic (Obama) lean, and in several cases it has been substantial. On average, they had a house effect of Obama +2.8. By comparison, the control group had essentially zero house effect, so this would imply that including a cellphone sample improves Obama's numbers by 2.8 points. (Or, framed more properly, failing to include cellphones hurts Obama's numbers by 2-3 points).

The difference is statistically significant at the 95 percent confidence level. Perhaps not coincidentally, Gallup, Pew and ABC/WaPo have each found a cellphone effect of between 1-3 points when they have conducted experiments involving polling with and without a cellphone supplement.

A difference of 2-3 points may not be a big deal in certain survey applications such as market research, but in polling a tight presidential race it makes a big difference. If I re-run today's numbers but add 2.2 points to Obama's margin in each non-cellphone poll, his win percentage shoots up from 71.5 percent to 78.5 percent, and he goes from 303.1 electoral votes to 318.5 (EDIT: I have not changed this part of the analysis in reflection of the new numbers, as it should still get the general point across). The difference would be more pronounced still if Obama hadn't already moved ahead of McCain by a decent margin on our projections.

[PujolJunkie]

Another uh oh moment for McCain if this poll turns out substantial. And given the source, I can say with some certainty it is.

In South Carolina, John McCain’s lead over Barack Obama is down to just six percentage points.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race finds McCain leading Obama 51% to 45%. Eighty-four percent (84%) of Obama voters are voting with enthusiasm for him while just 9% are voting primarily against McCain. As for McCain supporters, just 63% are enthusiastic about their candidate while 34% are voting primarily against Obama

This could move into landslide territory quick.

[PujolJunkie]

And speaking of the Carolinas, this could be even WORSE news for McCain.

From PPP:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

We're going to release our newest North Carolina poll tonight. I'll give you a clue:

Code: Select all

Date           % listing economy as top issue         Spread
1/21/08                        39                    McCain +14
5/9/08                         43                    McCain +7
8/23/08                        48                    McCain +3
9/19/08                        58                        ?

[Jocephus]

FREE LEVI!!!!!

http://freelevi.org/Real_Time_with_Bill_Maher.html

[PujolJunkie]

Kinda early.. I dunno why 538 did their poll update at 1:15 in the afternoon. Something tells me there's a lot more to come.



EDIT: The EPIC-MRA poll should be Obama +3. It doesn't include VPs.

[Arthur Dent]

If I understand correctly, based on his estimate of the cell phone effect, Silver has just added 2.8 points to Obama's margin in all non-cellphone state polls. This is fine as far as illustration goes, but is a poor estimate of the real effects. The number of cell phone only voters will vary state to state as will their voting preferences.

[Arthur Dent]

http://www.contingencies.org/septoct08/mccain.pdf

Opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking, would provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation. -John McCain (Sept/Oct 2008 issue of Contingencies magazine)

[jim]

http://www.contingencies.org/septoct08/mccain.pdf

Opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking, would provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation. -John McCain (Sept/Oct 2008 issue of Contingencies magazine)

I disagree, and think he is dead wrong.

[PujolJunkie]

::Change From Yesterday::
Obama reaches 50% in the Gallup Poll for the first time since the conventions ended.

DailyKos.com / Research 2000 (Weight: 35% Dem, 26% Rep, 30% Ind)
Obama +1, McCain 0

Diageo / Hotline (Weight: 41% Dem, 36% Rep, 19% Ind)
Obama 0, McCain 0

Gallup (Weight: Unknown*)
Obama +1, McCain 0

Rasmussen (Weight: 38.7% Dem, 33.6% Rep, 27.7% Ind)
Obama 0, McCain -1


Average Change
Obama +0.5, McCain -0.25

Average Swing
Obama 0.75