Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

[PujolJunkie]

Virginia:

I think this is really a bad, bad sign for McCain. Two polls show Obama up and up by a considerable margin. The Rasmussen poll is weighted to favor the GOP by about 2 points, so wham, you have an Obama tie or +1 there as well. If McCain loses Virginia, the only way he can rebound is by winning Pennsylvania and Michigan. The ABC/WaPo poll has two methods. RV and LV. By LV, Obama is up 3. By RV, he's up 6. Big difference. If it's truly by 6, McCain needs to start panicking.

ARG(GA, NJ, SD, WI):

Georgia is out of reach for Obama, always has been, always will be.

New Jersey is out of reach of McCain, always has been, always will be.

South Dakota was never the state that Obama pursued. It was North Dakota. Two completely different political climates. Not that it matters, he won't win either in November.

Wisconsin is back to light blue after this week. It was never a swing state. Minnesota, however, will be fun to watch.

Pennsylvania:

The NBC/Mason Dixon poll has a pretty small sample size, but overall I think it's pretty accurate. Obama up by 2. Rasmussen mirrors it, basically, by saying Obama +3. It's still close and within the MOE, I believe and with the small sample size, it could be deceiving. I'll check all the crosstabs later and report back.

New Mexico:

HUGE sample there. With over 1,000 LV polled. That's as much as the Diageo Hotline poll and the DKOS/R2000 NATIONAL poll. And Obama is up 11. I'd bank on that sticking. Hispanics go Obama's way 59-35. If that's representative of the electorate as a whole, Florida could go Obama's way.

Nevada:

The Suffolk link I posted in the last post doesn't work right, so I'll update that later. Nevada is heavily in play and I still think it's likely to end up red in November. But the likelihood is growing smaller every single day. By the Monday after the first debate, it could change blue. I'm honestly not sure.

Florida/Rasmussen:

Once again, the Rasmussen poll ONLY polls 500 LV. That is NOT enough to gauge any kind of true result. The Margin of error is 4.5% for Gods sake. I wouldn't put much bank in the Rasmussen polls at all. Obama's +3 in Penn seems to be right on and McCain's +4 in Ohio seems pretty good, too. But the Florida, Michigan and Virginia polls seem a little off.

New Hampshire:

Looks like it might actually swing red. I wouldn't be surprised, but that's 3 electoral votes Obama could really use in situations like Kerry states + NM + IA + CO. If he loses NH, that's an electoral tie and a serious cluster [expletive]. If somewhere else swings too, like VA or NV, it won't matter. But if it's the previous mentioned parlay of Kerry + NM etc., then ruh roh.

[clevername]

so, was this supposed to be Palin's primary email address?

Why on earth would her primary address be through yahoo?

[cardsfansince82]

so, was this supposed to be Palin's primary email address?

Why on earth would her primary address be through yahoo?

I think that's part of the controversy. She had an official (and obv more secure) email through the state, but she was using her crappy personal Yahoo account to send and receive official state business emails.

[jim]

so, was this supposed to be Palin's primary email address?

Why on earth would her primary address be through yahoo?

I think that's part of the controversy. She had an official (and obv more secure) email through the state, but she was using her crappy personal Yahoo account to send and receive official state business emails.

I misunderstood, I thought this was just a personal account. That's not a good plan there.

[PujolJunkie]

[PujolJunkie]

Polling Update:

Gallup - O 47(-1), M 44(0)
Ramussen - O 48(0), M 48(+1)
R2000 - O 49(0), M 43(0)
Diageo/Hotline - O 47(0), M 43(-1)

[GatewaySnayke]

The movement over the last couple weeks has been particularly acute with independent voters. 56% of them say that the Palin choice makes them less likely to support McCain and what was a 49-38 lead for Obama with that group is now a 58-31 advantage.

But that's not right! Going after Palin is supposed to make her MORE popular!

[BW23]

Biden will even it out.

[cpebbles]

Indeed, what would this thread be without BW's insight?

[BW23]

Nobody wants me going into specifics. I doubt anyone needs me to. I'll refrain from offending anyone on the left by showing what a bad day Biden's having.