Fat Strat wrote:Yeah, and those voters (well, young ones at least, I don't know about blacks) are the least reliable voting block. If they have anything better to do that day they'll miss voting.
Well, there certainly hasn't been much for the young voter be excited about in years past. I think it would be a mistake to assume that this time around.
Gore was very popular with the younger voters and he got a lower-than-expected turnout among young voters. Clinton did as well, but that hardly mattered.
I don't think the Obama needs high young-voter turnout to win. He just needs turnout.
Fat Strat wrote:Gore was very popular with the younger voters and he got a lower-than-expected turnout among young voters. Clinton did as well, but that hardly mattered.
Popular and excited are two entirely different things.
ghostrunner wrote:I don't know how many people here are near Cincy, but there's an Obama rally there next Thursday. I mention it primarily because the National and the Breeders will be putting on a free show. I'd go if I was free.
Interesting take on the health care issue. It sounds like it's from a conservative so there might be some slant in there, but it's a pretty good description of McCain's health care plan, which I don't think has been represented well so far (both misrepresented by Obama and also not clearly articulated in the debates by McCain). I don't really know if he's accurately depicting Obama's plan, but it should be a good conversation starter.
Perhaps Mr. Obama is so agitated because Mr. McCain's proposal is highly progressive. The Republican wants to readjust the subsidies that Congress channels into health coverage for business so that lower- and middle-wage workers aren't shortchanged, as they are now. Currently, people who get insurance through their employers pay no income or payroll taxes on the value of the benefit. This is revenue the government forgoes to encourage certain behavior. If those losses were direct spending, the tax exemption would have cost more than $246 billion in 2007.
But all that money props up only employer-provided insurance. For reasons of historical accident and lobbying clout, individuals who buy policies get no tax benefits and pay with after-tax dollars. Mr. McCain is proposing to make the tax benefits available to everyone, regardless of how they purchase their insurance.
He would offer a refundable tax credit of $5,000 for families, $2,500 for individuals, and the benefit isn't dependent on where people work or what they earn. Some would stick with their current job-based coverage. Given the option, others -- especially the uninsured, armed with new health dollars -- would decide to buy coverage on their own. That in turn would stimulate a market for more affordable insurance.
I'm short on time today, so let's keep this on point: John McCain is in deep trouble. In spite of some incremental gains that McCain has made in some of the national tracking polls, the set of state polling that follows is so strong for Obama that he continues to hit record marks in all three of our projection metrics. We are now projecting Obama to win the election 90.5 percent of the time, with an average of 346.8 electoral votes, and a 5.4-point margin in the national popular vote.
I'm short on time today, so let's keep this on point: John McCain is in deep trouble. In spite of some incremental gains that McCain has made in some of the national tracking polls, the set of state polling that follows is so strong for Obama that he continues to hit record marks in all three of our projection metrics. We are now projecting Obama to win the election 90.5 percent of the time, with an average of 346.8 electoral votes, and a 5.4-point margin in the national popular vote.
I don't like those odds. They sound good, but it's like going to the doctor and him telling you there is only a 10% chance that you will die in four weeks. Not too comfy with that.
Fat Strat wrote:Interesting take on the health care issue. It sounds like it's from a conservative so there might be some slant in there, but it's a pretty good description of McCain's health care plan, which I don't think has been represented well so far (both misrepresented by Obama and also not clearly articulated in the debates by McCain). I don't really know if he's accurately depicting Obama's plan, but it should be a good conversation starter.
Perhaps Mr. Obama is so agitated because Mr. McCain's proposal is highly progressive. The Republican wants to readjust the subsidies that Congress channels into health coverage for business so that lower- and middle-wage workers aren't shortchanged, as they are now. Currently, people who get insurance through their employers pay no income or payroll taxes on the value of the benefit. This is revenue the government forgoes to encourage certain behavior. If those losses were direct spending, the tax exemption would have cost more than $246 billion in 2007.
But all that money props up only employer-provided insurance. For reasons of historical accident and lobbying clout, individuals who buy policies get no tax benefits and pay with after-tax dollars. Mr. McCain is proposing to make the tax benefits available to everyone, regardless of how they purchase their insurance.
He would offer a refundable tax credit of $5,000 for families, $2,500 for individuals, and the benefit isn't dependent on where people work or what they earn. Some would stick with their current job-based coverage. Given the option, others -- especially the uninsured, armed with new health dollars -- would decide to buy coverage on their own. That in turn would stimulate a market for more affordable insurance.
(more...)
So, McCain is going to give you your tax break, and another check for 2500? I'm probably going to blow that on worthless stuff, like a motorcycle before I put it away for healthcare. Of course, that's just me.
I'm short on time today, so let's keep this on point: John McCain is in deep trouble. In spite of some incremental gains that McCain has made in some of the national tracking polls, the set of state polling that follows is so strong for Obama that he continues to hit record marks in all three of our projection metrics. We are now projecting Obama to win the election 90.5 percent of the time, with an average of 346.8 electoral votes, and a 5.4-point margin in the national popular vote.
I don't like those odds. They sound good, but it's like going to the doctor and him telling you there is only a 10% chance that you will die in four weeks. Not too comfy with that.
McCain has to win every single one of VA, OH, CO, NC, FL, NV and MO. Obama needs one of those states. I'd say that's lower than a 10% chance for McCain, it's just Silver's system being conservative. Considering Obama currently holds a lead in 6 of those 7 states right now, anyway.
