Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

[Leroy]

Wow. Another accountant on board. What's that now, five of us?

five.... out of the closet.

Just remember: Cash flow is King.

Cash flow is for squares.

[Radbird]

Wow. Another accountant on board. What's that now, five of us?

five.... out of the closet.

Just remember: Cash flow is King.

Cash flow is for squares.

I prefer to focus on revenue. Or profit. Or new business signings. Or whatever the execs need to make their numbers. Because when I help them do that, they tend to like me and keep me around. And I'm getting to the age where they are starting to look at me funny.

[Leroy]

Wow. Another accountant on board. What's that now, five of us?

five.... out of the closet.

Just remember: Cash flow is King.

Cash flow is for squares.

I prefer to focus on revenue. Or profit. Or new business signings. Or whatever the execs need to make their numbers. Because when I help them do that, they tend to like me and keep me around. And I'm getting to the age where they are starting to look at me funny.

My boss always says, 'Ask an accountant what two plus two is, and he'll say ''Anything you want it to be''.'

[clement]

With all of these closet CPAs, if only McCain would spend as much time pandering to Leroy the Accountant as he does to Joe the Plumber he might be doing better in the polls. Then again, I think people have an easier time relating to someone who looks like Joe than to someone who looks like Leroy.


Joe the Plumber


Leroy the Accountant

Joe's really soaking up his 15 minutes of fame, though it turns out he doesn't actually have a plumber's license, and he is a registered Republican (I saw him on TV yesterday claiming he is not registered with either party). Also it turns out there is a lien out on his home for failure to pay back taxes. That's the problem with fame... it comes with a great deal of media scrutiny. He's starting to get annoyed about it, but it's evidently not enough to stop from heading out to New York to do the talk show circuit. I'm pretty sure he's getting pretty happy because he's seeing himself get into that top 5% bracket without even having to spend the money to buy a plumbing company

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081017/ap_ ... he_plumber

HOLLAND, Ohio - Joe the Plumber's story sprang a few leaks Thursday. Turns out that the man who was held up by John McCain as the typical, hard-working American taxpayer isn't really a licensed plumber. And court documents show he owes nearly $1,200 in back taxes.
---
During an afternoon taping of "Late Show with David Letterman," McCain said he had not yet spoken to Wurzelbacher, and apologized for the press attention he had received.

"Joe, if you're watching, I'm sorry," McCain said.
---
Wurzelbacher said a McCain campaign official contacted him several days before the debate to ask him to appear with the candidate at a Toledo rally scheduled for Sunday.

He told reporters he's unsure if he'll attend, since he's now scheduled to be in New York for TV interviews.

You gotta love American politics.

[cardsfansince82]

McCain is on Letterman tonight? That should be pretty good considering Letterman skewered him last month.

[Freed Roger]

The Zogby trackers actually look accurate. Except maybe NC. I doubt Obama is up by 3. But it's close.

I'm curious of a couple things with these polls:

the info you show lately has Obama with a solid lead in MO (which i am surprised by), but the CNN electoral map has mo colored pink -still slightly in McCain's camp (pink). what gives?

Also, I keep hearing about this lead in the polls that Kerry had over Bush in 2004 nationally. I didn't follow 04 as closely as this election, but I don't ever remember where Kerry was favored to win - I remember all the commentators saying that his best hope was to win a few swing states, where he could hopefully win the electoral college while losing the popular vote.

I'm sure some poll may have favored Kerry, but that is not my impression of how things stacked up going into election day.

Is this just the media jacking with us to amp up the drama/ keep their show ratings up?

[clement]

McCain is on Letterman tonight? That should be pretty good considering Letterman skewered him last month.

I just saw a clip. Basically Letterman goes after him about it, and McCain right off the bat says, "I screwed up."

[clement]

On the Kerry thing, my memory is that it was the exit polls that showed that Kerry had won key battleground states that he did not win. I think both Florida and Ohio. But it turns out that those exit polls were heavily flawed because they had huge over-representations of women, who were overwhelmingly voting for Kerry.

But it wasn't pre-election polls that put him ahead. Going into election day it really was a toss-up in those two states and a few others. Different polls had different results, but they were pretty much all within the margin of error.

[PujolJunkie]

I'm curious of a couple things with these polls:

the info you show lately has Obama with a solid lead in MO (which i am surprised by), but the CNN electoral map has mo colored pink -still slightly in McCain's camp (pink). what gives?

More or less, it's an averages thing. Each pollster puts out their own independent numbers with different demographics and quite obviously, different people. Depending on the polls that CNN chooses to incorporate in it's calculation of the electoral map, it can read several different ways. Real Clear Politics, which is a poll collecting/averaging website, has Obama up by an average of 1.8 points. That's based on the latest collection of polls, most of which have shown Obama with a slight lead or McCain up by 1 or 2.

CNN/Time also does it's own independent polling. Which means that if they're using SOLELY their polling on their electoral map (I'm not sure, I'd have to check), that they are showing McCain with a lead in Missouri while say pollsters like Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling show Obama with a lead. CNN/Time is the odd duck in this case. Rasmussen/FOX News shows Obama with a 3 point lead. SurveyUSA with an 8 point lead. CNN, also remember, IS a news channel. People don't watch if there isn't drama.

Also, I keep hearing about this lead in the polls that Kerry had over Bush in 2004 nationally. I didn't follow 04 as closely as this election, but I don't ever remember where Kerry was favored to win - I remember all the commentators saying that his best hope was to win a few swing states, where he could hopefully win the electoral college while losing the popular vote.

I'm sure some poll may have favored Kerry, but that is not my impression of how things stacked up going into election day.

Kerry did not hold a lead from mid August all the way to election day and he lost. Kerry was never favored to win after August and that's just a fact. No presidential candidate that I can recall came back from a lead like this with 3 weeks left. EVER. Even Reagan had more time than this. Kerry was never the favorite after August according to the polls.

Is this just the media jacking with us to amp up the drama/ keep their show ratings up?

Bingo. This race isn't close right now. Not even by a longshot. Here's the example I'm giving everyone. I've become somewhat of a person who really, really knows the electoral college scenarios down to a tee by now.

There are a few truly important states right now: Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado and Nevada. As of right now, Barack Obama has built a lead in all 7 of those states. All of them. Period. In order for John McCain to accumulate 270 electoral votes, which is what is needed to win, he would have to win Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada AND Colorado. See what he has to do there? He has to win all 7 states. Every single one. If he loses ONE of those states, Obama wins the election. Why? Because all of the other states are solid in one way or another.

But here's the kicker: Not only does McCain have to win all of those states, but he has to defend two states that are starting to slip away. West Virginia and Georgia. So in summary, John McCain has to win ALL 9 of those states. Barack Obama needs one of them. There's no other path to victory for John McCain. And the reason it is so unlikely is because Barack Obama holds (averages according to Real Clear Politics) a 6 point lead in Colorado, a 3 point lead in Ohio, a 5 point lead in Florida, a 3 point lead in Nevada, a 2 point lead in Missouri, a 1 point lead in Nevada and a whopping EIGHT point lead in Virginia. Not to mention West Virginia has closed to a one point McCain lead and Virginia down to 7 points. And Indiana is still there too.

Oh, and one more thing: All of these polls don't account for the elevated African American turnout, many, many cell phones and youth turnout. Plus, five states that started early voting as of 3 days ago, Obama was already ahead in.

Code: Select all

...    Poll    % Voted                  Non-Early
State  Date      Early   Early Voters   Likely Voters
====================================================
NM     10/13     10%     Obama +23%     Obama +6%
OH     10/13     12%     Obama +18%     Obama +4%
GA     10/12     18%     Obama +6%      McCain +11%
IA     10/9      14%     Obama +34%     Obama +10%
NC     10/6       5%     Obama +34%     McCain +5%

The media is just trying to make it close. Right now, it's somewhere in the 364-174 mark. Very close to a landslide.

[Freed Roger]

I'm curious of a couple things with these polls:

the info you show lately has Obama with a solid lead in MO (which i am surprised by), but the CNN electoral map has mo colored pink -still slightly in McCain's camp (pink). what gives?

More or less, it's an averages thing. Each pollster puts out their own independent numbers with different demographics and quite obviously, different people. Depending on the polls that CNN chooses to incorporate in it's calculation of the electoral map, it can read several different ways. Real Clear Politics, which is a poll collecting/averaging website, has Obama up by an average of 1.8 points. That's based on the latest collection of polls, most of which have shown Obama with a slight lead or McCain up by 1 or 2.

CNN/Time also does it's own independent polling. Which means that if they're using SOLELY their polling on their electoral map (I'm not sure, I'd have to check), that they are showing McCain with a lead in Missouri while say pollsters like Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling show Obama with a lead. CNN/Time is the odd duck in this case. Rasmussen/FOX News shows Obama with a 3 point lead. SurveyUSA with an 8 point lead. CNN, also remember, IS a news channel. People don't watch if there isn't drama.

Also, I keep hearing about this lead in the polls that Kerry had over Bush in 2004 nationally. I didn't follow 04 as closely as this election, but I don't ever remember where Kerry was favored to win - I remember all the commentators saying that his best hope was to win a few swing states, where he could hopefully win the electoral college while losing the popular vote.

I'm sure some poll may have favored Kerry, but that is not my impression of how things stacked up going into election day.

Kerry did not hold a lead from mid August all the way to election day and he lost. Kerry was never favored to win after August and that's just a fact. No presidential candidate that I can recall came back from a lead like this with 3 weeks left. EVER. Even Reagan had more time than this. Kerry was never the favorite after August according to the polls.

Is this just the media jacking with us to amp up the drama/ keep their show ratings up?

Bingo. This race isn't close right now. Not even by a longshot. Here's the example I'm giving everyone. I've become somewhat of a person who really, really knows the electoral college scenarios down to a tee by now.

There are a few truly important states right now: Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado and Nevada. As of right now, Barack Obama has built a lead in all 7 of those states. All of them. Period. In order for John McCain to accumulate 270 electoral votes, which is what is needed to win, he would have to win Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada AND Colorado. See what he has to do there? He has to win all 7 states. Every single one. If he loses ONE of those states, Obama wins the election. Why? Because all of the other states are solid in one way or another.

But here's the kicker: Not only does McCain have to win all of those states, but he has to defend two states that are starting to slip away. West Virginia and Georgia. So in summary, John McCain has to win ALL 9 of those states. Barack Obama needs one of them. There's no other path to victory for John McCain. And the reason it is so unlikely is because Barack Obama holds (averages according to Real Clear Politics) a 6 point lead in Colorado, a 3 point lead in Ohio, a 5 point lead in Florida, a 3 point lead in Nevada, a 2 point lead in Missouri, a 1 point lead in Nevada and a whopping EIGHT point lead in Virginia. Not to mention West Virginia has closed to a one point McCain lead and Virginia down to 7 points. And Indiana is still there too.

Oh, and one more thing: All of these polls don't account for the elevated African American turnout, many, many cell phones and youth turnout. Plus, five states that started early voting as of 3 days ago, Obama was already ahead in.

Code: Select all

...    Poll    % Voted                  Non-Early
State  Date      Early   Early Voters   Likely Voters
====================================================
NM     10/13     10%     Obama +23%     Obama +6%
OH     10/13     12%     Obama +18%     Obama +4%
GA     10/12     18%     Obama +6%      McCain +11%
IA     10/9      14%     Obama +34%     Obama +10%
NC     10/6       5%     Obama +34%     McCain +5%

The media is just trying to make it close. Right now, it's somewhere in the 364-174 mark. Very close to a landslide.

Thanks for all that PJ. still I am a skeptic on some of the polls, healthy skeptic though. Maybe being surrounded by so many republicans causes this.