Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

[PujolJunkie]

POLL UPDATE! YAAAAAY!



Being the resident poll junkie (PJ. Get it?) I'll comment on all this later. My girlfriend is taking up my ear right now.

Ohio is the most interesting, that has been the most difficult toss-up from the start to lean Obama and it is starting to shift that way.

PA, MN, WI, NV, & MI are done. Florida/CO/VA is starting to shift to Obama for good. The +5 in AZ is shocking and deserves watching to see if it ends up in the toss-up catagory, if Obama had selected Richardson as his VP, AZ might be leaning Obama.

When toss-up states are NC, MO, and IN, it's looking one-sided.

Pretty good summary. Hit the nail on the head. The only one I disagree with is NV.. I wouldn't quite say that it's done yet. Could still end up going one way or another on the 4th. I'll get around to breaking down the demographics and stuff after the WS Game is over. If anybody is interested, it'll be a pretty lengthy post.

[BW23]

I fail to recognize any of his ideas because of what they are. I'm not someone who doesn't understand the issues like so many voters. Some of these voters should be given a test to see if they even have a clue who they're voting for.

So does this lady pass or fail that test of yours...

[/youtube]

I had actually posted two youtube videos earlier...one from each side. That was one. The other was the Howard Stern clip where they're asking people why they're voting for Obama. Most supported Obama's choice of Palin as VP. And they liked that he was pro-life and wanted to stay in Iraq.

But I deleted the post. I figured someone would get offended.

[jim]

I fail to recognize any of his ideas because of what they are. I'm not someone who doesn't understand the issues like so many voters. Some of these voters should be given a test to see if they even have a clue who they're voting for.

So does this lady pass or fail that test of yours...

[/youtube]

I had actually posted two youtube videos earlier...one from each side. That was one. The other was the Howard Stern clip where they're asking people why they're voting for Obama. Most supported Obama's choice of Palin as VP. And they liked that he was pro-life and wanted to stay in Iraq.

But I deleted the post. I figured someone would get offended.

I wouldn't worry about offending anyone anymore. I'd love to see those.

[docellis]

The entire time I couldn't stop thinking about how devastating he's going to be to my dad's small business.

How is that?

[BW23]

I guess I've already offended everyone...is that what you're saying?

[/youtube]

But I think the "Arab" clip was even better.

[Freed Roger]

Found - a solution to unite this country, by dividing

Dear Red States,

We've decided we're leaving. We intend to form our own country, and we're taking the other Blue States with us. In case you aren't aware, that includes Hawaii, California, Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, New York, and all of the Northeastern states. After this election, we'll be adding Colorado and New Mexico. We believe this split will be beneficial to the nation, especially to the people of our new country - Nuevo California.

To sum up briefly: You get Texas, Oklahoma and all the slave states; we get stem cell research, the best beaches, and the best ski resorts. We get Elliot Spitzer; you get Ken Lay. We get the Statue of Liberty; you get Dollywood. We get Intel and Microsoft; you get WorldCom. We get Stanford, Harvard, Princeton, Yale, Cal Tech, MIT and Columbia; you get Ole' Miss. We get 85 percent of America's venture capital and entrepreneurs; you get Alabama. We get two-thirds of the tax revenue; you get to make the red states pay their fair share.

Since our aggregate divorce rate is 22 percent lower than that of the Christian Coalition, we get a bunch of happy families and you get a bunch of under-educated single moms. Please be aware that Nuevo California will be pro-choice and anti-war, and we'll need all of our citizens back from Iraq at once. If you need people to fight, ask your evangelicals. They apparently have kids they're willing to send to their deaths for no purpose, and they don't mind if you don't televise their kid's caskets coming home. We do wish you success in Iraq and hope that those Weapons of Mass Destruction turn up for you, but we're not willing to spend any more of our money in Bush's Quagmire.

With the Blue States, we will control 80 percent of the country's fresh water, 90 percent of pineapple and lettuce, 92 percent of the nation's fresh fruit, 97 percent of America's quality wines (you can serve French wines at your state dinners), 90 percent of all cheese, 90 percent of the high tech industry, most of the U.S. low-sulfur coal, all living redwoods, sequoias and condors, and all the Ivy League and Seven Sister schools. We also get New England, the Great Lakes and Yosemite, thank you very much.

In the Red States, you will have to cope with 88 percent of all obese Americans and their projected health care costs, 92 percent of all U.S. mosquitoes, 100 percent of tornadoes, 94 percent ofhurricanes, 99 percent of Southern Baptists, virtually 100 percent of all televangelists, Rush Limbaugh, Bob Jones University, and Clemson. Additionally, in the Red States, 38 percent actually believe Jonah was swallowed by a whale; 62 percent believe life is sacred unless it involves the death penalty or semi automatic gun ownership; 44 percent claim that evolution is only a theory; 53 percent insist that Saddam Hussein was involved in 9/11; and 61 percent of you crazy bastards believe you have higher moral standards than those of us on the left.

By the way, we're taking all the good pot, too. You get that dirt weed from Mexico and Kansas ditches.

Peace out,
The Blue States

Numbers probably whacked, but still hilarious.
I may go for a plan like this if inner St Louis county can secede from MO into IL.

All in fun though, all in fun.

[clement]

I'm only up to p. 600 but I gotta get back to class and before I totally lose my train of thought...

I have no problem with either one of those videos posted about things Obama said, other than the misleading commentary that accompanied them. In the first one he is talking about the plight of people living in ghettos and how the outcomes of those situations are the same regardless of where you are in the world: poverty, lack of education and economic opportunity, etc. I agree with him completely.

In the second one he is talking about a very specific issue: education. that's what the program was about and that's what he was being asked about. The issue is that public education funding is done at the local level so that the localities with higher property taxes (i.e., more affluent areas) contribute a significantly greater amount of funding to their school districts than the school districts located in low-income areas. So he is talking about having education funding be spread more evenly rather than just maintaining well-funded and resourced schools in affluent areas while having schools with much less funding in poorer areas. That's not a handout anymore than giving money to programs that support veterans or soldiers. It's about investing in the future of our country in a more even manner so that the people at the bottom of the social and economic ladder have a better chance of moving up that ladder in the subsequent generation(s).

I think proclaiming any church to be divisive is treading into very presumptive ground. If we are just talking about whether or not a particular religion or church actually divides people, there is little disagreement that fundamentalist Christian churches that take strong stances aginst things like abortion and gay rights are divisive, whether you agree with them or not. It all just boils down to what any individual believes. And I'd say any church that takes a fundamentalist view in its rhetoric and approach is by definition divisive.

[cards2468]

The entire time I couldn't stop thinking about how devastating he's going to be to my dad's small business.

How is that?

Mostly with increased taxes for his company. Obama defines a small business as 10 or fewer people, so he apparently runs a big corporation. Plus Obama will make it so that he is required to offer his employees health care or else he'll face heavy taxes. His Indiana plant already gets health care, but they also have a location in Ohio that is about the same size, produces much more efficiently, has no union, and the employees don't want health care provided, instead they get much larger salaries. Now what's he supposed to do? Tell his employees he'll give them health insurance if they accept taking a pay reduction? I know it's feasible, but the point is the slightest added pressure to his company and the Indiana plant will be shut down quite easily. I know the union there has been a headache for him from the start, and everyday he comes home from a hard day at work he says, "I'm going to shut down that place, I just can't take it anymore." Fortunately last week when I visited him he said about his company, "We're getting by, and they say with the market that's the best you can ask for." They make rubber and plastic components, so the cost of oil directly affects them greatly. On a good note, however, with the declining value of the dollar he's suddenly able to sell competitively in Europe. Last year he picked up a contract from Volvo to make a part for their semis. Perhaps letting the dollar slip more will help bring business to some of these automotive plants in the US, if anything for making vehicles to sell overseas. Sounds pretty odd, but Toyota recently shut down production in their Texas based Tundra plant, but when they open back up, they're going to start sending part of the production overseas

[Freed Roger]

The entire time I couldn't stop thinking about how devastating he's going to be to my dad's small business.

How is that?

Mostly with increased taxes for his company. Obama defines a small business as 10 or fewer people, so he apparently runs a big corporation. Plus Obama will make it so that he is required to offer his employees health care or else he'll face heavy taxes. His Indiana plant already gets health care, but they also have a location in Ohio that is about the same size, produces much more efficiently, has no union, and the employees don't want health care provided, instead they get much larger salaries. Now what's he supposed to do? Tell his employees he'll give them health insurance if they accept taking a pay reduction? I know it's feasible, but the point is the slightest added pressure to his company and the Indiana plant will be shut down quite easily. I know the union there has been a headache for him from the start, and everyday he comes home from a hard day at work he says, "I'm going to shut down that place, I just can't take it anymore." Fortunately last week when I visited him he said about his company, "We're getting by, and they say with the market that's the best you can ask for." They make rubber and plastic components, so the cost of oil directly affects them greatly. On a good note, however, with the declining value of the dollar he's suddenly able to sell competitively in Europe. Last year he picked up a contract from Volvo to make a part for their semis. Perhaps letting the dollar slip more will help bring business to some of these automotive plants in the US, if anything for making vehicles to sell overseas. Sounds pretty odd, but Toyota recently shut down production in their Texas based Tundra plant, but when they open back up, they're going to start sending part of the production overseas

I mean this in all sincerity, I don't think anybody knows what's going to happen with taxes, health care etc. If this is your first election, I'm still sure you know that campaign is full of false rhetoric by all parties. That is just the way it has always been.

Most of the seminars I attend on taxes, the consensus is that taxes will have to go up, regardless of president. Its just a matter of timing and who pays the tax. Currently we are on an unsustainable path with the federal deficit, and the downward spiral of the economy. Hard to imagine Obama's plans making it worse than McBush's

[PujolJunkie]

Okay, so here's basically where we stand state by state. I'm not by any means a pollster, but I'm going to try my best to give a representation here of where everything stands with just a week left 'til this whole mess is done and over with. I'm just gonna do the states polled above. The rest are pretty moot at this point. But I will start with the states that are for sure locked in no matter what.

Obama: California, Wisconsin, New York, Vermont, Maine, Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Hawaii, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Illinois, Oregon, Washington, Washington DC, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Iowa, Minnesota (239 EV)

McCain: Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, South Dakota, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, West Virginia, ALASKA! (132 EV)

That leaves something like 167 possible EVs. Now, these aren't all toss up states, necessarily. Just states that could flip in a possible landslide environment or unpredictable states or states that have shown tightening. Virginia is Obama's, in reality and so is Pennsylvania, who alone give Obama 273 electoral votes. On the other hand, Arizona, Georgia, Montana and North Dakota could very well fall to McCain depending on the polling going into next week. Which would give him 163 EV.

In summary, it's probably closer to 311-163 Obama right now. The three really pride and true toss up states are Florida, Missouri and North Carolina. The rest have all swung one way definitively one way or another. I'll try to break down the state polling in another post here soon.