Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

[cards2468]

The entire time I couldn't stop thinking about how devastating he's going to be to my dad's small business.

How is that?

Mostly with increased taxes for his company. Obama defines a small business as 10 or fewer people, so he apparently runs a big corporation. Plus Obama will make it so that he is required to offer his employees health care or else he'll face heavy taxes. His Indiana plant already gets health care, but they also have a location in Ohio that is about the same size, produces much more efficiently, has no union, and the employees don't want health care provided, instead they get much larger salaries. Now what's he supposed to do? Tell his employees he'll give them health insurance if they accept taking a pay reduction? I know it's feasible, but the point is the slightest added pressure to his company and the Indiana plant will be shut down quite easily. I know the union there has been a headache for him from the start, and everyday he comes home from a hard day at work he says, "I'm going to shut down that place, I just can't take it anymore." Fortunately last week when I visited him he said about his company, "We're getting by, and they say with the market that's the best you can ask for." They make rubber and plastic components, so the cost of oil directly affects them greatly. On a good note, however, with the declining value of the dollar he's suddenly able to sell competitively in Europe. Last year he picked up a contract from Volvo to make a part for their semis. Perhaps letting the dollar slip more will help bring business to some of these automotive plants in the US, if anything for making vehicles to sell overseas. Sounds pretty odd, but Toyota recently shut down production in their Texas based Tundra plant, but when they open back up, they're going to start sending part of the production overseas

I mean this in all sincerity, I don't think anybody knows what's going to happen with taxes, health care etc. If this is your first election, I'm still sure you know that campaign is full of false rhetoric by all parties. That is just the way it has always been.

Most of the seminars I attend on taxes, the consensus is that taxes will have to go up, regardless of president. Its just a matter of timing and who pays the tax. Currently we are on an unsustainable path with the federal deficit, and the downward spiral of the economy. Hard to imagine Obama's plans making it worse than McBush's

The seminar today had laid out tax plans based on what McCain's group has stated and what Obama's group has stated. They both look fairly similar with the main differences being McCain lowering taxes on small businesses with Obama raising taxes on small businesses as well as the "top 5 percent of Americans". When I say small businesses, I mean actual small businesses, not mom and pop shops.

[PujolJunkie]

These are all of the state polls that have came out in the past couple of days, or today. And as you can see, there's a whole lot of blue and not a ton of red. Not a whole lot of good news for McCain either, but I'm going to be as objective as possible breaking all this down. I'll do it state by state.

Arizona (RCP Avg: McCain +6.6):

This is really a state that I was suspicious about in the first place. Classic shock poll. Hadn't been polled in a long time, was never really far off according to Mason-Dixon and AZ State, but Rasmussen showed it at +21 in it's last poll. Now it's showing it down to a 5 point lead for McCain, a 16 point flip in a month's time.

The key here is unaffiliated voters. While McCain is trusted more on the economy in Arizona overall, unaffilated voters give the edge to Obama 52-39. And they give Obama the edge on national security 49-45. Both of those things are huge, because voters claiming no party account for nearly 28 percent of registered voters in Arizona. Not only that, but McCain's support among white voters is down 9% and Hispanics favor Obama by 24.

I don't think it is going to flip, but it will be down to single digits. If it does flip, it'll be this weekend. So watch for that coming up.

Prediction: McCain by 3.

What to watch for: If Obama can bring the Phoenix part of Maricopa, the largest county in AZ, within a couple of digits, he could pull Arizona out of his hat. But the other half, the non-Phoenix half, is something like 44% GOP. It'll be tough.

Colorado (RCP Avg: Obama +6)

Obama pulled a crowd of over 100,000 people last week and has an insane ground game in Colorado. The biggest thing is that Obama has held himself at 50% all month in Colorado while McCain simply can't break the 46% range. It's surprising to me that it's even this close, with Rasmussen giving Obama just a 4 point edge. Michigan completely died for McCain when he gave up on it and he's done the same to Colorado.

Obama holds a 15 point lead among those who have already voted and 91% are certain they will vote for Obama no matter what out of a sample size of 1,000 likely voters. Obama also leads by 14 among independents and only trails McCain by 5 among men and 3 among whites.

I don't see Obama losing here, which is critical because without Colorado, McCain needs Pennsylvania.

Prediction: Obama by 7

What to watch for: Arapahoe County is one of the most conservative counties in the Denver metro area. Democrats out registered Republicans for the first time ever. When/if Arapahoe flips from +4 Bush in 04 to +?? Obama in 2008, Colorado goes blue and that's it. If Obama can run the tally even higher in Denver, then it could be higher than 7 points.

Florida (RCP Avg: Obama +3)

Florida is more or less a sweetener for Obama. It isn't a firewall, that state would be Virginia. It isn't necessarily critical unless for whatever reason Pennsylvania/Virginia or Pennsylvania/Colorado sway the other way in the next week. It's just a surefire guarantee to get Obama to 300 EV or more.

That being said, Obama is crushing McCain by 20 percent among voters who have already voted early 60-40 according to Suffolk. Obama is trusted more on the economy 52-46 according to Rasmussen. The trend definitely looks in Obama's favor, but I would honestly say that it is a true toss-up state.

Prediction: Obama by 2

What to watch for: Maximizing African-American turnout will be the key to a possible Obama win, especially in Miami-Dade County. If he can seperate himself in Monroe County and even flip Hillsborough, which according to Suffolk is at a tie right now. In 2000, 180,760 people voted for Bush and 169,557 voted for Gore in Hillsborough. It went to Bush by 30,000 votes in 04, but Obama could definitely close that gap.

So this post doesn't run too long, I'll pick up the rest (IN, MO, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA and VA) in the next post. I'm going to skip Iowa, New York, Oklahoma, Oregon, Washington and West Virginia because they're all pretty much cut and dry states that aren't going to flip.

[BW23]

I think proclaiming any church to be divisive is treading into very presumptive ground. If we are just talking about whether or not a particular religion or church actually divides people, there is little disagreement that fundamentalist Christian churches that take strong stances aginst things like abortion and gay rights are divisive, whether you agree with them or not. It all just boils down to what any individual believes. And I'd say any church that takes a fundamentalist view in its rhetoric and approach is by definition divisive.

Obama's church is divisive based on a theology created by man in the latter part of the 20th Century. It has very little to do with religion and is based mostly on race. It's completely divisive.

Those that take strong stances on things like abortion and gay rights are divisive based on what's in the Bible. You just think it's divisive because you disagree with it.

I'd question the Christianity of any church that doesn't follow the Bible.

[Freed Roger]

With all this fuss over the concept of the wealthy reverting to old tax rates, and how unfair that is, I got to thinking of the glory days of trickle-down, when the tax cuts for the wealthy were passed. To get the cuts passed, they had to throw a few token tax cuts for the middle class, and begrudgingly gave a few hundred dollars in refundable credits to people paying no income tax.

Wall St. Journal editorial page was loving life back then, and glorified the vast bulk of the tax cut that went to the investor class, while criticizing the credits given on the low-end and said the people who got them were "Lucky Duckies". This caused a soon-forgotten stink. Anyhow, a guy made some funny comics featuring the Lucky Duckies.

[SHOW]

Here's one on Joe the plumber

[cards2468]

I'm referring to taxes on small businesses. There's a difference between a small business and the wealthy. 1 is a business and the other is a person. Unfortunately some people don't understand this though.

[PujolJunkie]

Indiana (RCP Average: Obama +0.3):

Indiana is one of those states where there is really no concrete evidence to back up any kind of historical basis. Bush won by 20 freaking points in 04 and Kerry was almost swept, holding only 4 counties. The key to Obama being so competitive in Indiana is the economy.

I'm honestly not sure about Indiana in the end. I think it definitely has the prospects to turn blue, with Obama's ground game being a huge factor and the bordering of Illinois possibly being a big deal with the western part of the state.

The poll out today by Zogby showing McCain +6 can't necessarily be ignored, but it IS Zogby, who is extremely unreliable and really erratic. Zogby doesn't give any real breakdowns as far as demographics go, but in the state of Indiana, it brings McCain a lead with women and within four points of Obama with 18-29 year olds. That, my friends, is utter crap and why when you see anything with Zogby's name on it, take it with a grain of salt.

Prediction: Obama by 1

What to watch for: I do believe that when everything is said and done, Obama will have won Indiana. Possibly due to supressed turnout among Republicans due to low morale or possibly just due to a ground game that has never been seen in political history (Obama's). The areas to watch are Marion County, which went to Kerry by 2% and the western part of the state near Illinois like Vermillion. Voter registration has been extremely, extremely high in Indiana, which bodes well for Obama and brings some unpredictability to the state.

Missouri (RCP Avg: Obama +0.6):

A state where a lot of us on GRB live one of maybe 3 or 4 really pride and true toss up states left. Obama had a sizable lead last week, but that was after the two gigantic rallies held by Obama in the state. He's now up by 1. Obama is only behind McCain by 9 with white voters according to Rasmussen and only behind McCain 1 with men. The reason that it might be so close this time around however is that women choose Obama by just three, which is not even close to his national average.

My favorite pollster, though, Survey USA has Obama and McCain tied. But looking at their internals, it's kind of odd. Rarely does SurveyUSA skewer their demographic polling, but it has McCain up by 1 with the 18-34 crowd. That, to me, is a bit too close. Everything else checks out though, as Obama leads by 10 with women, McCain by 9 with men and McCain by 2 with independents. Zogby says Obama by 10 with independents, though. Could be either. Time will tell.

Prediction: Obama by 2

What to watch for: I think we know where the tallys are going to be ran up. St. Louis County and City are going to go for Obama by big, big margins. Somewhere close to the 60-40 or even bigger for Obama. But southeast Missouri, northern Missouri and southwestern Missouri will all be pretty much in McCain's corner, with southeast Missouri being closer than the other two. The Kansas City region will also be in the 60-40 range for Obama.

North Carolina (RCP Avg: Obama +1.6)

Let's be honest. When we're talking about North Carolina being a swing state, it's not looking good for the GOP candidate, no matter who they may be. Rasmussen is a little weird with their internal polling, as McCain is somehow getting 15% of democrats, which I completely disagree with. Obama leads by 20 out of independents, which is more likely than it was a couple of weeks ago and is further reenforced by Zogby saying he leads indys by 21 and PPP saying he has a 12 point lead with the unaffiliated.

Rasmussen says they're tied on the economy and jobs at 48% and matching the ongoing trend, McCain leads by 13 on national security. But all of this, in my opinion, is moot when you look at early voting. Obama leads among early voters 63-36 and has already banked a ton of votes before the 4th and the fact that only 2 or 3 percent of the state is left undecided.

Prediction: Obama by 2

What to watch for: The reason I say Obama by 2? Heightened African American turnout is the #1 reason and another reason is due to the banking of early votes and the extremely high tally of independents going toward Obama. Like everywhere else, registration is amazingly high and turnout will be very good this year. If Obama can somehow pull ahead in Wake County or pull out Buncombe County, which went to Bush by less than 1% in 2004, then watch very closely as a lot of the other surrounding counties turn blue.

New Hampshire (RCP Avg: Obama +7.7):

Is NH really a swing state? Marist's new poll shows Obama by 5, Rasmussen has him by 4. But before that, he held leads of 15, 7, 9, 8, 13, 10 and 12. McCain hasn't had a strong showing since mid-September. This could just be due to natural tightening in the polls as election day creeps closer. Regardless, Obama holds a 1 point edge with voters on the economy in Rasmussen's poll and is up by 9 with Independents. That's down half from three weeks ago.

McCain's negative ads and campaign tone have definitely lead to Obama's lead in New Hampshire, as McCain's unfavorables have shot up 6 points from last month according to Marist, but he has still closed the gap somewhat. Further polling will be needed to see whether this is a 5 point race or a 9 point race, but I highly doubt it will end up in the double digit range.

Prediction: Obama by 4

What to watch for: If Obama remains competitive in southern New Hampshire, he should be able to pull it out in New Hampshire. But don't count McCain out. It's one part of the country where his tax plans might go over considerably well. New Hampshire, being a smaller state, is pretty cut and dry. Obama has to take the areas Kerry took and hold onto them strong, while remaining competitive in Hillsborough and Rockingham.

Nevada (RCP Avg: Obama +3.5):

Another red state in 2008 now looks bleak for John McCain. Although InsiderAdvantage says the race is a tie, CNN, Zogby, Rasmussen and Reno-Gazette Journal all give Obama a lead anywhere from 4 to 7 points and it may be more depending on what happens this week. Zogby has Obama +4 and that seems about right, depending on the internals, of which Zogby is infamous for skewering pretty bad.

In the Dem Primary, Obama won and won big in the huge Washoe County, but failed with Clark County. Considering Clark County went to Kerry in 2004 by 5%, that shouldn't be too big of a problem in 08. Also considering how long it has been since the primaries, opinions about Obama have significantly changed for the better among Democrats since then.

Prediction: Obama by 3

What to watch for: It's really simple in Nevada: Win Washoe County while holding onto Clark County and you've just about got yourself a victory. 87% of Nevada's registered voters live in Clark + Washoe. The other 13% are very red, but if Obama can carry ~53+% of Clark + Washoe, he'll win Nevada.

Part 3 soon.

[clement]

I'm referring to taxes on small businesses. There's a difference between a small business and the wealthy. 1 is a business and the other is a person. Unfortunately some people don't understand this though.

Does your father's business make more than $250,000 in profit? If so, then he would be taxed higher. If not, then he would not. If his "small business" does make more than $250,000 in profit, he is one of the richer small business owners in the country. Does he pay taxes on his corporation through his personal income tax filing or does he file as a corporation? This might have an impact on any changes in his tax liability as well.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/Vote2008 ... 995&page=1

There are 27.2 million small businesses in the United States, according to the Small Business Administration. Of those, only 6 million firms, or about 22 percent, had employees. The rest were sole propitiator companies, according to the government.

The vast majority of these companies earn less than $250,000 a year.

Most small businesses file individual tax returns. (The others file as corporations.) The Internal Revenue Service does not have detailed income information about which taxpayers are small-businessowners and which ones are employees. But the overall numbers show just how few Americans earn more than the Obama tax-hike threshold.

Most Small Businesses Earn Less

In tax year 2006, 138.4 million tax returns were filed by Americans. Only 2.9 percent -- a little more than 4 million tax filers -- reported earning more than $200,000. (The IRS does not have data for the $250,000 mark.)

Small-businessowners do tend to earn more than the general population but a majority of them still do not earn above $200,000 or $250,000.

The National Federation of Independent Business found that 14 percent of those surveyed earn $200,000 or more. Those who did tended to own larger businesses. For instance, of those with 20 to 249 employees, 32 percent earned $250,000.

Some small businesses do file corporation taxes. McCain has proposed cutting the top income tax rate for corporations from 35 percent to 25 percent.

Williams said that cut wouldn't help most small businesses.

"Only the biggest corporations would benefit from McCain's cut," he said.

On the healthcare issue for his plant in Ohio, he may have a legitimate concern. But it will be the same for all small businesses operating in the same competitive market. What Obama's plan would say is that the workers don't get to have that choice of either getting more pay or having that extra pay be put into their healthcare coverage. Some may think this is an infringement on their right to make their own decisions on what to do with their money. But I disagree. I assume some of the employees at that Ohio plant buy their own private health insurance (which is surely more expensive than whatever increase in salary they are receiving). But most probably just do without the insurance, which is irresponsible and winds up being a burden on taxpayers when that individual (or one of his/her family members) needs care for a catastrophic illness. Obama's plan would indeed make it more difficult for these larger small businesses to not provide healthcare coverage to their employees, although he softens the blow by giving a tax credit for doing so.

One of the biggest disadvantages that small businesses have in terms of competing for talent is their inability to provide health benefits to employees. The vast majority of working Americans who do not have health insurance are either owners, employees or dependents of small businesses. Obama's plan is an attempt to try and fix this problem.

By the way, McCain is also proposing a pretty ambitious plan to get more uninsured people on health insurance. His program will cost taxpayers a great deal of money as well, though it's not clear which of the two plans would cost more. McCain's may cost less to taxpayers, but if so, it probably costs people more in terms of deductibles and out-of-pocket payments for non-catastrophic treatments. I don't really have a problem with this approach, though I'd just prefer a fully socialized program that takes all incentives out of how people manage their own healthcare and focuses on just making sure that quality care and preventative services are available to all people who are responsible enough to take advantage of them.

[PujolJunkie]

Ohio (RCP Avg: Obama +6.3):

To be quite honest, as an Obama supporter, I had all but given up on Ohio until late September. I had wrote it off. And now, it appears as if Obama has truly opened up a sizable lead. The only pollster to show McCain with a lead since October 19th is the GOP pollster Strategic Vision. Of the last 5 polls, Obama leads by 4, 5, 7, 10 and 3. The two before that, disregarding Strategic Vision, are by 12 and by 4.

We all know how important Ohio is. Every single voter who followed 2004 knows how important Ohio is. No Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio. And that's not an exaggeration. Not a single Republican candidate has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio. The state is truly difficult to break down, but many, many pundits try to spend a lot of time doing so. 2 weeks ago, Obama lead for the first time since February in Rasmussen's poll of Ohio. Now, he holds a 4 point lead, the largest since McCain had a four point lead a month and a half ago.

Following a trend in early voting states, Obama holds a 62-37 lead with those who have already voted. He also leads by 12 among unaffiliated voters and leads by 9 with women, all while being tied with men. Also following a national trend is Obama being trusted on the economy by four 4 points. McCain holds his defacto lead of 13 on national security. Zogby gives Obama a 4 point lead as well, giving him edges with men, women and he is ahead in EVERY age group.

Prediction: Obama by 4

What to watch for: Ohio is a state to watch in general, but if you really wanna know which counties need to be focused on, Obama should be safest in the eastern part of the state and will rack up plenty of votes in the Cleveland area and all of the Kerry counties, especially Cuyahoga. Hamilton County might also be even closer than it was in 2004. I honestly don't believe that there is really any way to boil a lot of Ohio's counties down to Democrat or Republican. Ohio voters can be extremely finnicky and given a national stage, they often steal the spotlight. African American turnout will be a monster and it could prove the decider.

Pennsylvania (RCP Avg: Obama +10.8):

Quite honestly, Pennsylvania isn't even a toss up state anymore. Which is really the story to John McCain's demise in 2008. Without Pennsylvania, he has basically doomed himself by giving up on Michigan and Colorado. The only possible way that John McCain could win the 2008 election without Pennsylvania is to win Virginia AND Colorado while winning Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Missouri and Nevada. If Obama simply wins Pennsylvania and one of the previously mentioned states, he is President and the election is over.

Temple University gives Obama a 9 point lead and the Pennsylvania Daily Tracker, Morning Call, gives Obama a 13 point lead, which has been a running trend for that tracker. McCain hasn't lead a Pennsylvania Poll since April and even Republican leading Strategic Vision have him down by 7. SurveyUSA also has Obama by 12. According to Morning Call, 96% are very likely or definitely voting for Obama, while 95% are definitely or likely voting for McCain. That says it all, as the decision has basically already been made by most Pennsylvanians.

Prediction: Obama by 9

What to watch for: Honestly? The margin of an Obama victory. The black turnout is going to sky rocket and not only that, but given the current economic landscape, many other areas in rural Pennsylvania could flip from red to blue just as easily. Areas like Centre County, Mercer County, Monroe County and Carbon County could all flip and given Obama's ground game, I honestly would not doubt it. John McCain is going to regret giving up on Michigan and Colorado come the 4th. Because Pennsylvania has decided.

Virginia (RCP Avg: Obama +7.3):

Another one of the states that nobody thought could be redder is now Obama's firewall. Obama started building momentum in Virginia at the end of September and with his historic ground game has completely taken over the state. With leads of 4, 9, 7, 8, 11, 2 and 10 within the past week, the state that didn't even vote for Clinton or for God's sake, Jimmy Carter, looks to be trending blue in late October.

Rasmussen gives Obama a 4 point lead in the Commonwealth of Virginia, with a 5 point lead on the economy and just 80% of conservatives plan on voting for McCian. That's compared to 93% of liberals for Obama. If Obama can win 90+% of democrats come election day, he will take Virginia and that will be it. SurveyUSA has Obama leading in every age category except 65 and older and taking Independents by 4 points and winning 67-30 among voters who voted early. Not only that, but Obama also leads in Northeast Virginia, Southeast Virginia and Central Virginia. The only region he trails in is the region of Shenando, which he is only down by 1 in.

Prediction: Obama by 6

What to watch for: Counties like Russell and Caroline could flip, but given the unique landscape of this election and the fact that Obama is the nominee, it could be extremely unpredictable. Obviously, the highly AA counties will be the first to go, but with Obama leading in every part of the state, it's hard to tell where he will make inroads besides the highly black areas.

[jim]

Found - a solution to unite this country, by dividing

Dear Red States,

We've decided we're leaving. We intend to form our own country, and we're taking the other Blue States with us. In case you aren't aware, that includes Hawaii, California, Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, New York, and all of the Northeastern states. After this election, we'll be adding Colorado and New Mexico. We believe this split will be beneficial to the nation, especially to the people of our new country - Nuevo California.

To sum up briefly: You get Texas, Oklahoma and all the slave states; we get stem cell research, the best beaches, and the best ski resorts. We get Elliot Spitzer; you get Ken Lay. We get the Statue of Liberty; you get Dollywood. We get Intel and Microsoft; you get WorldCom. We get Stanford, Harvard, Princeton, Yale, Cal Tech, MIT and Columbia; you get Ole' Miss. We get 85 percent of America's venture capital and entrepreneurs; you get Alabama. We get two-thirds of the tax revenue; you get to make the red states pay their fair share.

Since our aggregate divorce rate is 22 percent lower than that of the Christian Coalition, we get a bunch of happy families and you get a bunch of under-educated single moms. Please be aware that Nuevo California will be pro-choice and anti-war, and we'll need all of our citizens back from Iraq at once. If you need people to fight, ask your evangelicals. They apparently have kids they're willing to send to their deaths for no purpose, and they don't mind if you don't televise their kid's caskets coming home. We do wish you success in Iraq and hope that those Weapons of Mass Destruction turn up for you, but we're not willing to spend any more of our money in Bush's Quagmire.

With the Blue States, we will control 80 percent of the country's fresh water, 90 percent of pineapple and lettuce, 92 percent of the nation's fresh fruit, 97 percent of America's quality wines (you can serve French wines at your state dinners), 90 percent of all cheese, 90 percent of the high tech industry, most of the U.S. low-sulfur coal, all living redwoods, sequoias and condors, and all the Ivy League and Seven Sister schools. We also get New England, the Great Lakes and Yosemite, thank you very much.

In the Red States, you will have to cope with 88 percent of all obese Americans and their projected health care costs, 92 percent of all U.S. mosquitoes, 100 percent of tornadoes, 94 percent ofhurricanes, 99 percent of Southern Baptists, virtually 100 percent of all televangelists, Rush Limbaugh, Bob Jones University, and Clemson. Additionally, in the Red States, 38 percent actually believe Jonah was swallowed by a whale; 62 percent believe life is sacred unless it involves the death penalty or semi automatic gun ownership; 44 percent claim that evolution is only a theory; 53 percent insist that Saddam Hussein was involved in 9/11; and 61 percent of you crazy bastards believe you have higher moral standards than those of us on the left.

By the way, we're taking all the good pot, too. You get that dirt weed from Mexico and Kansas ditches.

Peace out,
The Blue States

Numbers probably whacked, but still hilarious.
I may go for a plan like this if inner St Louis county can secede from MO into IL.

All in fun though, all in fun.

In spite of a few western states, we would have better trout fishing as well.

[Leroy]