Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

[BW23]

For the sake of the country, I really hope this is not a close election.

If somehow McCain ekes out a close victory, because of all the polling that has been done, there will be a lot of people who will wonder how in the world it happened. And of course many, especially those who feel most disenfranchised, will conclude that there is some corruption in the system.

And if somehow Obama ekes out a close victory, because of all the attention McCain and Palin (and Fox) have given to the whole Acorn issue, a lot of conservatives and middle-Americans will feel that Obama won with a bunch of fraudulent votes cast in the cities.

If Obama wins by 100 electoral votes however, which is very possible, I think these kinds of voices will be muted. (obviously McCain has no shot at winning by 100 electoral votes)

I've given this a little worry too. There will be commotion from whichever side that loses if its a close election. It may not initially be a huge ruckus, but the media will be all over it adding fuel to the fire, until it is. I try not to think about what would happen. 2000 will be nothing by comparison.

I know with a high degree of certainty that there will be serious, potentially widespread riots if Obama loses. I suspect there will be riots if he wins but they will be more of the celebratory kind.

I expect the same people to cause trouble no matter who wins.

[AJ]

Why as a poplular senator with serious committee power would you accept any position with the Executive Branch (except P and VP)?

Those top senate seats have some serious power, and accepting a position with any administration is giving you 4 or 8 years until a serious reduction in power and influence and I'm not aware of any politician that made it back to the Senate after serving with an administration.

[GatewaySnayke]

This will be the funniest thing you see all day. It's Bill O The Clown's electoral map:



I'm surprised he doesn't have California as a battleground lolol.

[sighyoung]

This will be the funniest thing you see all day. It's Bill O The Clown's electoral map:



I'm surprised he doesn't have California as a battleground lolol.

That is an amazing vision of delusion.

[maddash]

If they call Pennsylvania AND Virgina early for Obama, then McCain's chances are over. He could win Florida, Missouri, Ohio, Colorado, North Carolina, New Mexico... and he'd still come up short.

It's not over until it's over, but I just can't imagine a scenario where McCain pulls this one off. Not without Pennsylvania.

[sighyoung]

If they call Pennsylvania AND Virgina early for Obama, then McCain's chances are over. He could win Florida, Missouri, Ohio, Colorado, North Carolina, New Mexico... and he'd still come up short.

It's not over until it's over, but I just can't imagine a scenario where McCain pulls this one off. Not without Pennsylvania.

McCain can certainly still win. But some of those states (Iowa, for instance) have been out of play for months.

[PujolJunkie]

If they call Pennsylvania AND Virgina early for Obama, then McCain's chances are over. He could win Florida, Missouri, Ohio, Colorado, North Carolina, New Mexico... and he'd still come up short.

It's not over until it's over, but I just can't imagine a scenario where McCain pulls this one off. Not without Pennsylvania.

McCain can certainly still win. But some of those states (Iowa, for instance) have been out of play for months.

But not without overcoming a double digit lead by Obama in Virginia and Pennsylvania, the latter being a state he hasn't lead in since April.

[PujolJunkie]

Until the poll update comes out on 538, you guys have got to see this:

National --- Rasmussen Reports -- Obama 50, McCain 47 ... Obama +3
National --- Diageo/Hotline --- Obama 49, McCain 42 ... Obama +7
National --- Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby --- Obama 49, McCain 44 ... Obama +5
Pennsylvania --- Marist --- Obama 55, McCain 41 ... Obama +14
Washington --- Strategic Vision (R) --- Obama 54, McCain 42 ... Obama +12
Ohio --- Marist --- Obama 48, McCain 45 ... Obama +3
National --- GWU/Battleground --- Obama 49, McCain 46 ... Obama +3
Ohio --- Associated Press/GfK --- Obama 48, McCain 41 ... Obama +7
Ohio --- Quinnipiac --- Obama 51, McCain 42 ... Obama +9
Florida --- Associated Press/GfK --- Obama 45, McCain 43 ... Obama +2
Florida --- Quinnipiac --- Obama 47, McCain 45 ... Obama +2
Pennsylvania --- Quinnipiac --- Obama 53, McCain 41 ... Obama +12
Pennsylvania --- Associated Press/GfK --- Obama 52, McCain 40 ... Obama +12
North Carolina --- Associated Press/GfK --- Obama 48, McCain 46 ... Obama +2
Virginia --- Associated Press/GfK --- Obama 49, McCain 42 ... Obama +7
Colorado --- Associated Press/GfK Obama 50, McCain 41 ... Obama +9
New Hampshire --- Associated Press/GfK --- Obama 55, McCain 37 ... Obama +18
Nevada --- Associated Press/GfK --- Obama 52, McCain 40 ... Obama +12
Pennsylvania --- Franklin & Marshall --- Obama 53, McCain 40 ... Obama +13

I'll have to wait for NS to clarify, but this could be the worst polling day of the entire race for McCain. In the past two weeks, he's topped himself four or five times as Obama has hit his peaks. But as far as state polling goes, Obama could be at ANOTHER new peak.

The National Trackers are moving toward McCain as a natural tightening, but the state polls have Obama completely crushing him.

[GatewaySnayke]

I think it's time for a contest. Participation is encouraged.

1. Who will win?
2. By how much will that candidate win of the popular vote (i.e. 48-44)
3. What will the final electoral tally be?

[maddash]

If they call Pennsylvania AND Virgina early for Obama, then McCain's chances are over. He could win Florida, Missouri, Ohio, Colorado, North Carolina, New Mexico... and he'd still come up short.

It's not over until it's over, but I just can't imagine a scenario where McCain pulls this one off. Not without Pennsylvania.

McCain can certainly still win. But some of those states (Iowa, for instance) have been out of play for months.

Yeah, O'Really's map is absurd. I mean, Oregon as an open state? Oregon? Obama has a 15 point lead in Oregon.

This scenario is being really generous to McCain, and he's still behind.


I'm not exactly comfortable calling a race as important as this so early... but I just don't see how McCain wins this one. Of course, I'd still vote even if Obama was a lock for 538. And I suggest everyone does the same.