Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

[jim]

FAIL. Palin falls for prank call from Canadian comedy group posing as French President Sarkozy.

http://threelinepunditry.blogspot.com/2 ... diand.html

Prankers: I must say, Governor Palin, I love the documentary they made on your life, you know, Hustler’s "Nailin Palin."
Sarah Palin: Oh, good, thank you. Yes.

lol

On the surface it's hilarious. But think about it.... this could be our next VP with a 72 year old president who hasn't exactly had an easy life.

All of a sudden.... not funny. Maybe Wed. a.m. funny again, but today not funny.

[PujolJunkie]

Just thought I'd get this out there now: PA is tightening, VA is tightening, OH is tightening. With 2 days left. If they were tightening 7 days ago, I'd be legitimately afraid but everyone is making up their minds now. The undecideds are at a bare minimum and Obama still is up in every one of those states. He's not been below 52% in PA in a long while. Things are looking good for McCain over the past 2 days and maybe tomorrow, too. But nothing has changed. This is still over.

There have been relatively few 'fresh' polls conducted within the past 24-48 hours -- most of these state polls were in the field late last week. As we get more data in today and tonight, the model could very well decide that the race is not tightening at all. Moreover, polling conducted on a weekend -- particularly on a quasi- holiday weekend -- is generally unreliable.

Secondly, even with this tightening, McCain remains well short the 2/2/2 condition that we defined last week:

John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls (sorry, Strategic Vision) in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania.

Indeed, McCain has not come within 2 points of Obama in any polls in any of these states.

EDIT: Also, please consider most if not all Mason-Dixon Polls with a (R) next to their name. 2 to 3 point house effect toward the right side.

That being said, PPP is going to unload a [expletive] of polls tonight all the way up til 4 AM. I'll be up that late so I can report them back here. Teasers said Obama is still very comfortable in PA.

[PujolJunkie]

Also, about Mason-Dixon:

A commenter below asked about a new Mason Dixon poll showing Obama up 47-44 in Virginia but suggesting that the undecideds are a McCain leaning lot:

"Among undecided voters this year, 93 percent are white and 75 percent live outside Northern Virginia, where Obama has a substantial lead."

My first reaction is that it is highly unlikely that 9% of likely voters are still undecided. I think a lot of folks who still don't have their minds up just aren't going to be voting. There are probably some conscientious people who feel a civic obligation to vote and are genuinely torn but for the most part if you still don't have a dog in this fight I don't think you're going to turn out.

My second reaction is that this poll had a sample size of 625 people so you're generating a profile of undecideds based on like 57 respondents. That's a pretty darn high margin of error.

I'm having a hard time detecting any overall trends in our last round of polls. In some states it seems like Obama is doing better, in some a little worse, in others about the same as both our recent polls and those of other organizations.

[StatmanCrothers]

I, Statman Crothers, am hereby officially endorsing Sen. Barack Obama for President of these United States.

Missouri may turn out to be a crucial state, so be sure to get out, vote early, and vote often, for Barack Obama.

I'm Statman Crothers and I approve this message. Thank you.

[Socnorb11]

I'll be mad at all of you guys if Missouri goes to McCain.

[jim]

I know all polls tighten toward the end. Why? Is it the polling or some sociological thing going on?

I still have a hard time getting my brain around the fact that this race is even this close.

4th quarter, Alabama 24 Bemidji State 20. Beavers ball, 1st and 10 on their own 20 with 1:05 left and no timeouts. Not likely they pull it out, but how in the heck did the Beavers take the Crimson Tide to the end on their own field?

That's what this race is like to me.

Bad officiating I guess.

[Freed Roger]

I still have a hard time getting my brain around the fact that this race is even this close.

McPalin's campaign seems to have done everything wrong, compared to Obama's being efficient, well-financed and cool-headed. McCain seems out of touch, and has severely compromised the values that I admired in him in the first place. McPalin's campaign is based on fear-mongering and capitalizing on ignorance. Obama's based on generalities -yes. But positive messages that appeal to peoples' better side and the logical conclusion that what we've had the last 8 years doesn't work and is not sustainable.

Yes it appears close. I have more than a suspicion as to why its close at all. There is a preconceived notion in this country that wealthy older white males are the only ones suitable for being the president. There is 230+ years of history to back this up. OK maybe a few were not wealthy, but other than that...

No, I'm not saying this is the only reason this election is this close, nor is it the only reason people are voting for McCain. But its the main reason.

Should McCain happen to win this election, the message sent will be clear. Oh I believe a woman or minority can still become president within a decade or so, but it will have to be someone with an ideology that panders to the extreme right - such as Palin or like an Alan Keyes.

[InvincibleCakeEater]

I still have a hard time getting my brain around the fact that this race is even this close.

McPalin's campaign seems to have done everything wrong, compared to Obama's being efficient, well-financed and cool-headed. McCain seems out of touch, and has severely compromised the values that I admired in him in the first place. McPalin's campaign is based on fear-mongering and capitalizing on ignorance. Obama's based on generalities -yes. But positive messages that appeal to peoples' better side and the logical conclusion that what we've had the last 8 years doesn't work and is not sustainable.

Yes it appears close. I have more than a suspicion as to why its close at all. There is a preconceived notion in this country that wealthy older white males are the only ones suitable for being the president. There is 230+ years of history to back this up. OK maybe a few were not wealthy, but other than that...

No, I'm not saying this is the only reason this election is this close, nor is it the only reason people are voting for McCain. But its the main reason.

Should McCain happen to win this election, the message sent will be clear. Oh I believe a woman or minority can still become president within a decade or so, but it will have to be someone with an ideology that panders to the extreme right - such as Palin or like an Alan Keyes.

To add a little to that, I've had family members tell me that he says everything right. But they mean it in a negative way.

[Radbird]

I've been playing around with this for awhile, and it's a huge stretch to come up with scenarios that put McCain in the White House. For example, he'd have to take all 7 of the swings states, which would put him at 247, plus 2 Obama-leaning states (PA plus one other) to put him over the top.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

It could be interesting Tuesday night or over very early.

[Radbird]

Federal Agents Probing Whether Disclosure of Obama's Aunt's Status Was Legal