MAGIC NUMBER: 0. CLINCHED!!!

[dmarx114]

I don't consider this thread a jinx, but I keep thinking about the Mets. Was it last season or the season before when they blew a six game lead in the division within two weeks to go?

Here's the thing.....

Nobody in this thread has claimed that the Cards are locks to win the division. It's just a way to figure out when the Cards could conceivably win the division. And updating the number in this thread, along with poting pictures is just a fun way to celebrate each win and each Cubs loss. To me, this is one of the neat things about being in first place.

[Michael]

BP playoff odds.

Code: Select all

Average wins by position in NL Central:  90.5 85.0 80.0 76.0 70.4 65.0 90.6
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cardinals         67   52   .510   90.0   72.0   81.19495    1.96487   83.15982        2.58003  16.11918
Cubs              60   55   .500   84.9   77.1   16.43917    4.46911   20.90828       -0.73719 -14.74162
Brewers           58   59   .459   79.5   82.5    2.05692     .30008    2.35699       -1.05443  -1.78986
Astros            57   61   .436   76.7   85.3     .30803     .03555     .34359         .06623  -1.24837
Reds              50   67   .416   69.8   92.2     .00088     .00010     .00098       -0.00091  -0.01318
Pirates           46   70   .407   66.0   96.0     .00005     .00000     .00005         .00005  -0.00083

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/stati ... s_odds.php

[Faceman]

Am I readling that right? Only a 4% chance Cubs are wild card? Less than 2% that the Cards are?

[cards2468]

Am I readling that right? Only a 4% chance Cubs are wild card? Less than 2% that the Cards are?

I think the odds that we win the division knock down the odds that we win the wild card.

[Faceman]

Am I readling that right? Only a 4% chance Cubs are wild card? Less than 2% that the Cards are?

I think the odds that we win the division knock down the odds that we win the wild card.

Right, I got that. I think my point is that if you add em up, you get about a 6.5% chance that the WC comes from the central (all the other teams are basically 0%). The Cards have a better record than any WC contender to date. I suppose this means that if the Cards don't win the Central, it's because they blow it and lose their shot at the WC (instead of the Cards continuing to play good ball but the Cubs go lights out and pass the Cards).

[Faceman]

Looking at the full report. . . the Braves and Cubs are both 5 games over 500, with the Braves having played 2 more games (61-56 vs. 60-55), yet they are about twice as likely to win the WC.

Maybe strength of schedule down the stretch?

[obucard]

Am I readling that right? Only a 4% chance Cubs are wild card? Less than 2% that the Cards are?

I think the odds that we win the division knock down the odds that we win the wild card.

The Cubs odds also knock down ours. If they were the WC leaders, our odds for WC would be higher, being able to fall back on the WC if they took the division. Their low odds for the WC mean if they pass us in the division, we're probably out of the WC race (as it is, we're only 1.5 games ahead of WC leader Colorado).

[jim]

BP playoff odds.

Code: Select all

Average wins by position in NL Central:  90.5 85.0 80.0 76.0 70.4 65.0 90.6
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cardinals         67   52   .510   90.0   72.0   81.19495    1.96487   83.15982        2.58003  16.11918
Cubs              60   55   .500   84.9   77.1   16.43917    4.46911   20.90828       -0.73719 -14.74162
Brewers           58   59   .459   79.5   82.5    2.05692     .30008    2.35699       -1.05443  -1.78986
Astros            57   61   .436   76.7   85.3     .30803     .03555     .34359         .06623  -1.24837
Reds              50   67   .416   69.8   92.2     .00088     .00010     .00098       -0.00091  -0.01318
Pirates           46   70   .407   66.0   96.0     .00005     .00000     .00005         .00005  -0.00083

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/stati ... s_odds.php

That's probably the least useful of the bunch. PECOTA adjusted and ELO are more reflective imo because they actually adjust for the quality of the players on your team.

Code: Select all

Average wins by position in NL Central:  92.0 86.0 80.4 76.3 71.0 63.2
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cardinals         67   52   .556   91.6   70.4   84.20883    2.98866   87.19749
Cubs              60   55   .525   86.0   76.0   14.49753    8.22247   22.72000
Brewers           58   59   .480   79.8   82.2    1.15562     .36582    1.52143
Astros            57   61   .467   76.9   85.1     .13710     .04218     .17928
Reds              50   67   .441   71.2   90.8     .00092     .00021     .00112
Pirates           46   70   .362   63.5   98.5     .00000     .00000     .00000

[JS04]

te he he he..

Still haven't lost since this was posted...

[Freed Roger]

bring it.