Update: HOLLIDAY A CARD 7yr/120 million, p178

[Popeye_Card]

EDIT: Eyeballing an average offensive RAA throwing out the peak and valley, Holliday is around 37 and Bay is around 35. 2 runs per year.

you really shouldn't toss out 2007 though.

If you wanted a more accurate data set, you would cut out the peaks and valleys.

[cards2468]

if you go by baseball-reference's defensive metrics, Holliday appears to be a terrible defender, however I've learned that b-r's defensive metrics are almost useless, and according to UZR, Holliday is definitely a decent defender.

That was my basic point--how much do you trust UZR. It's a fine tool for informational purposes. But using it as the *major* factor between Holliday being valued as a $25MM/yr. player vs. Bay being valued as a $15MM/yr. player, I think it's worth questioning it's value, since it is still a somewhat subjective measure of defense.

What defensive statistic isn't? Until a good pitchFX type system for fielding is implemented, I think I'd mostly trust scouting reports and UZR. Baseball-reference claims Matt Holliday is 13 runs below average at his position over his career while Manny Ramirez is only 7 runs below average over the past 7 years. I have a hard time believing Manny is that much better, or even better in general, than Matt Holliday defensively, so I tend to put a little more trust in UZR which has Holliday at a UZR/150 of 6.9 over his career while Manny has been at -12.1 over his career.

[haltz]

EDIT: Eyeballing an average offensive RAA throwing out the peak and valley, Holliday is around 37 and Bay is around 35. 2 runs per year.

you really shouldn't toss out 2007 though.

If you wanted a more accurate data set, you would cut out the peaks and valleys.

if accurate means all the numbers look alike. I've never seen anything that suggests your projection is better with less information.

hitf/x might not provide much over UZR when you are talking about 4,000 innings.

[Popeye_Card]

if accurate means all the numbers look alike. I've never seen anything that suggests your projection is better with less information.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robust_statistics

[haltz]

is the data contaminated?

[Richie Allen]

With the often huge swings I've seen in UZR, I'm not sure it wouldn't be a good idea to throw out peaks and valleys.

[haltz]

we're talking about offense (which has peaks and valleys that people usually trust).

[Richie Allen]

we're talking about offense (which has peaks and valleys that people usually trust).

UZR and "defensive statistics" have been brought up in half the posts the last two pages. Somebody's talking about it.

[haltz]

I mean in terms of throwing out 'outliers'.

If you are just making a general point about UZR, it correlates better year to year than ERA.

[Popeye_Card]

is the data contaminated?

You tell me. What do you think the chances are of Jason Bay posting another -1.3 RAA in a full season? Extremely unlikely? I would say so.

For the record, I'm no fan of Bay's. I think he's a great (not elite) hitter, but a horrible defender. I certainly think Holliday is a better player, but the gap isn't very large offensively. Defensively, UZR says it's a landslide for Holliday. I personally think it's closer (Holliday still being better).

They're both going to be overpaid in this market. Or at least getting a deal larger than what I feel comfortable handing out in the Cardinals' revenue position.