Update: HOLLIDAY A CARD 7yr/120 million, p178

[clevername]

I haven't seen all the reports on this, but any idea when in the contract the opt out is rumored to be?

No, but ARod's opt out clause was after year 6, I believe (2007; contract signed in '01)

I would guess (and this is just a guess) that on an 8 year deal the opt-out would be after year 5 or after year 6, most likely after year 6. Think about that... would the club really have a problem with Holliday at age 36 opting out of a contract that will be paying him (assuming it will escalate) $16-18 million per year over those final few years?

Mo's probably hoping and wishing and praying that he DOES opt out. I would be! That's significant money that could be reallocated to a player on the south side of his twighlight years right when the club will most likely have to be retooling.

that's what I was thinking. If the opt out is in the latter half of the deal it may actually work out for the Cards.

[ManEatingTarp]

If a player opts out, do you still get draft compensation?

[cards2468]

I haven't seen all the reports on this, but any idea when in the contract the opt out is rumored to be?

No, but ARod's opt out clause was after year 6, I believe (2007; contract signed in '01)

I would guess (and this is just a guess) that on an 8 year deal the opt-out would be after year 5 or after year 6, most likely after year 6. Think about that... would the club really have a problem with Holliday at age 36 opting out of a contract that will be paying him (assuming it will escalate) $16-18 million per year over those final few years?

Mo's probably hoping and wishing and praying that he DOES opt out. I would be! That's significant money that could be reallocated to a player on the south side of his twighlight years right when the club will most likely have to be retooling.

that's what I was thinking. If the opt out is in the latter half of the deal it may actually work out for the Cards.

I'd imagine he'd only opt out if:
a) the Cardinals become perenial losers
b) the market experiences huge inflation
c) he's a hitting machine even when he's 35 yrs old

if it's a, we could probably get him to waive his NTC so that we can rebuild
if it's b or c, we might be getting ourselves a good deal at that point of the contract

Eitherway, I don't see where it would benefit us

[clevername]

I haven't seen all the reports on this, but any idea when in the contract the opt out is rumored to be?

No, but ARod's opt out clause was after year 6, I believe (2007; contract signed in '01)

I would guess (and this is just a guess) that on an 8 year deal the opt-out would be after year 5 or after year 6, most likely after year 6. Think about that... would the club really have a problem with Holliday at age 36 opting out of a contract that will be paying him (assuming it will escalate) $16-18 million per year over those final few years?

Mo's probably hoping and wishing and praying that he DOES opt out. I would be! That's significant money that could be reallocated to a player on the south side of his twighlight years right when the club will most likely have to be retooling.

that's what I was thinking. If the opt out is in the latter half of the deal it may actually work out for the Cards.

I'd imagine he'd only opt out if:
a) the Cardinals become perenial losers
b) the market experiences huge inflation
c) he's a hitting machine even when he's 35 yrs old

if it's a, we could probably get him to waive his NTC so that we can rebuild
if it's b or c, we might be getting ourselves a good deal at that point of the contract

Eitherway, I don't see where it would benefit us

if it's C and he starts his decline in the years following it the Cards get the best of his performance during the time he's here while letting someone else overpay for his declining years. The Cards take that money and spend it on someone younger.

[Fan_In_NY]

I haven't seen all the reports on this, but any idea when in the contract the opt out is rumored to be?

No, but ARod's opt out clause was after year 6, I believe (2007; contract signed in '01)

I would guess (and this is just a guess) that on an 8 year deal the opt-out would be after year 5 or after year 6, most likely after year 6. Think about that... would the club really have a problem with Holliday at age 36 opting out of a contract that will be paying him (assuming it will escalate) $16-18 million per year over those final few years?

Mo's probably hoping and wishing and praying that he DOES opt out. I would be! That's significant money that could be reallocated to a player on the south side of his twighlight years right when the club will most likely have to be retooling.

An opt out is almost always a win-win for the player, and a lose-lose for that organization. He would only opt out if his performance level is still high, and he thinks he could make more than 16-18M on the open market at that point (that is really unlikely considering age, and the fact that the contract will probably be backloaded so that last years would be more like 20M.) Or he would opt out if his body is holding up well and he thinks he could get 4+ more years on the open market...again highly unlikely at the age he would be. The only way that he would opt out and it be good for the Cardinals is if there is something about the clubhouse or fans/city that he really hates and would be willing to take a monetary loss to get away from. Again unlikely.

[Fat Strat]

Even if Holliday is still a high impact player at age 36, there's still, oh I don't know, 150 years worth of data suggesting that baseball players that old are not good investments and that we, as a club, would be better off finding someone almost half that age to invest $18 million per year into.

Think of it this way... I think pretty much all of us want Holliday to sign a 4-6 year deal. That's not looking likely. If he opts out of his contract after 6 highly productive years, then what's the problem? What's the difference in that and signing him to the 6 year deal that we can actually stomach? I'm having a hard time seeing a downside to a clause that lets a 36 year ball player leave if he wants to. I have trouble seeing any upside to having 36 year old ball players on the club at all. Historically, that's a bad age for people who hit and throw baseballs for a living.

[TheoSqua]

Yeah, even if Holliday is still a high impact player at age 36, there's still, oh I don't know, 150 years worth of data suggesting that baseball players that old are not good investments and that we, as a club, would be better off finding someone almost half that age to invest $18 million per year into.

But I think Holliday is worth more in the next 3-4 years than a 16-18m average salary. I personally have no problem overpaying him during his decline years if that means getting him at a lower salary during his peak years. That way we can use the money saved from underpaying him during his prime to build a better roster around Holliday/Pujols while they're at their best.

[Socnorb11]

I wouldn't think twice about the opt-out. If the Cardinals get 5 years of high-end production out of him for $16 mil per year, it would be pretty hard to complain about that. If he opts out at that point, you thank him very kindly for his services, and spend the $16 mil somewhere else.

[cards2468]

if it's C and he starts his decline in the years following it the Cards get the best of his performance during the time he's here while letting someone else overpay for his declining years. The Cards take that money and spend it on someone younger.

Even then, with inflation, as he declines he'll probably be worth more than $16mil/yr

[Socnorb11]

if it's C and he starts his decline in the years following it the Cards get the best of his performance during the time he's here while letting someone else overpay for his declining years. The Cards take that money and spend it on someone younger.

Even then, with inflation, as he declines he'll probably be worth more than $16mil/yr

If so, then more power to him for seeking a raise.

You get what you can out of him, and then move on if he opts out.