Saber-slanted Fantasy Baseball

[themiddle54]

I'd never ridicule your, or anyone's, point settings. If they work for you and the league is happy with them, that's all that counts.

I'd point out one thing constructively, though, that I think is a bit skewed and was kinda why I figured your league wasn't quite like mine when you said you had 15/12 categories. It's just way too many pitching categories and is double- and triple-rewarding some things. Say we have four stat lines today

Lincecum 7IP, 5H, 2BB, 9K, 0ER, takes a no decision, throws 102 pitches (46 pts in your league/47 pts in my league)
Halladay 9IP, 6H, 1BB, 6K, 0ER, gets a 2-0 shutout win, throws 118 pitches (77 pts in your league/54 pts in my league)
Felix, 9IP, 10H, 0BB, 12K, 0ER, takes a ND and team loses 1-0 in 10th, throws 120 pitches (56 pts in your league/67 pts in mine)
Sabathia, 9IP, 10H, 2BB, 6K, 2ER, 1 HR, gets a 4-2 win, throws 110 pitches (49 pts in your league/38 pts in mine)

Yes, Halladay was better than Lincecum. But was he 67.4% better, as per your system? No way. Getting credited for a win, a CG, and a SHO snowballs and puts him out of line with what he really did w/r/t the others. In mine CC is the lowest, but you have him ahead of Lincecum, which is frankly a bit cuckoo. In mine Felix is the most rewarded, which he unquestionably should be regardless of game outcome and if he's extra-credited for a CG or a SHO.

Note that Lincecum gets very similar points from your system and mine. Everyone else, because of the CG aspect, there's a big difference.

[mikechamp]

Good point and analysis, and please interpret my points below as merely continuing the discussion as opposed to being defensive or upset with your commentary.

The rationale behind the 5 pts for CG is to reward durability. But it goes beyond the individual, though, and therein lies the difference between your league and mine. He's also saving his team's bullpen for that game. I always felt pitchers should get a gold star for going above and beyond to help their team. It's a related, though not identical, rationale to my rewarding of hitters for sac bunts. Basically, my system brings a little bit of a team component into fantasy, which have been and probably always will be an individual analysis.

(Sac flies are mostly luck and they probably need to be removed, but with such a small point total, it has never determined the outcome of anyone's finish, so I find it inconsequential and harmless.)

The SHO is merely a reward for durability, effectiveness and luck. I added that in a couple of years ago, because I felt someone who threw a no-hitter (or perfect game) should get an added bonus for such an accomplishment, and this is as close as I can get in any free fantasy league structure.

[themiddle54]

Good point and analysis, and please interpret my points below as merely continuing the discussion as opposed to being defensive or upset with your commentary.

The rationale behind the 5 pts for CG is to reward durability. But it goes beyond the individual, though, and therein lies the difference between your league and mine. He's also saving his team's bullpen for that game. I always felt pitchers should get a gold star for going above and beyond to help their team. It's a related, though not identical, rationale to my rewarding of hitters for sac bunts. Basically, my system brings a little bit of a team component into fantasy, which have been and probably always will be an individual analysis.

(Sac flies are mostly luck and they probably need to be removed, but with such a small point total, it has never determined the outcome of anyone's finish, so I find it inconsequential and harmless.)

The SHO is merely a reward for durability, effectiveness and luck. I added that in a couple of years ago, because I felt someone who threw a no-hitter (or perfect game) should get an added bonus for such an accomplishment, and this is as close as I can get in any free fantasy league structure.

But--and ditto to your preamble, I don't mean to attack your system or anything--IP is a component you already have that awards durability. CG and SHO are double- and triple-rewarding it.

Sometimes guys are not saving their bullpens by going a full 9. Sometimes they're just on teams with crappy bullpens and they have to go the full 9 in a close game. Unlike, say, Lincecum or CC, who almost never pitch a CG not b/c they are not awesome, but b/c they have awesome bullpens to close out the close ones.

[mikechamp]

But--and ditto to your preamble, I don't mean to attack your system or anything--IP is a component you already have that awards durability. CG and SHO are double- and triple-rewarding it.

Sometimes guys are not saving their bullpens by going a full 9. Sometimes they're just on teams with crappy bullpens and they have to go the full 9 in a close game. Unlike, say, Lincecum or CC, who almost never pitch a CG not b/c they are not awesome, but b/c they have awesome bullpens to close out the close ones.

You make a great point, and I agree. There is a multiplication factor going on there.

And while I think I agree on your point about bullpens, there are the following (and very recent) exceptions:

Lincecum tied for the NL lead in CGs in 2009 with 4. Who was he tied with? Teammate Matt Cain.

Prior to playing for NYY, CC threw 26 complete games, but it probably had to do with the poor caliber of team he played on. Same goes for Halladay in his TOR days, though he has a much better pen in PHI and still threw more CGs in 2010 than anyone else since Livan Hernandez in 2004.

(Tip of the cap to http://www.baseballreference.com for the stats.)

[themiddle54]

I'm in.

I gotta say, Statman, I'm intrigued by your approach.

[StatmanCrothers]

I'm in.

I gotta say, Statman, I'm intrigued by your approach.

Well. First off, I used a different set of projections than ESPN provided. There are several available out there.

But I used that just for points. Second, I actually did the math to valuate the players for an 11 person league.

Not based on keeper-potential, just based on how many points each player would score above a waiver-wire replacement level. Then I converted that to dollar value based on the total amount of money that would be spent for that total amount of available points.

I found some interesting discrepancies between certain postions that might be over-valued and certain positons that might be under-valued.

There were a few players I had ridiculous high ceilings on, and others that went for a pretty decent price that I wouldn't even have bid a buck on.

I found several players that I felt had value but that I thought would go for a buck. I was wrong on some of these, and got burnt on my LF selection but I was very happy with all my other picks.

It was a blast. It was my first-ever auction-style draft. I got Buster, Hanley, Albert, Felix, The Freak... it's a good core, but at a high salary.

That said, I spent a bit too much money too quick. Not that I don't think I got great values, but I would have liked to have a few extra dollars maybe pick up some cheap prospects like you did (nice work, sorry I made it worse for you by bringing up that little loophole

and to make sure I filled in the LF position better.

But Coghlan isn't terrible, he's a starter (for now) and he'll be eligible in CF as well. And there's other starters who could be a surprise and come cheap as a replacement. Brantley should be elibible in LF once Sizemore comes back but even then Sizemore will miss a lot of games as he comes up to speed so I think Brantley is a sleeper pick. He's young, his minor league stats had him as a stud before he tanked last year.

With our points system and weekly lineups, I also thought that backups at the hitter positions don't make a lot of sense. If someone goes on the DL you will usually have a few days to get a replacement on the waiver wire.

With weekly lineups however, the "2 start pitchers" become key. With our point system, it won't necessarily help much to raid the waiver wire for scrubs that start twice because you could get very low scores or even negative if they give up the dingers.

So while some people went with only 4 starters for the 4 slots, I tried to make sure I stocked up on a couple of extra arms, so I'd more often than not have an option to pick the ones who will start twice. (probably not at expense of benching Felix or The Freak, but to fill in the last 2 spots)

Also, our system doesn't seem to have any problem with starting an RP-eligible starter in a RP slot, so I scoped out which RP-eligible guys that were in starting rotations this year might be above average points guys. Not good enough to draft as a starter, but maybe good enough to out score a reliever in the RP slot. Especially if they get 2 starts.

So that's where I was coming from. Not that I gave it much thought

PS it was also cool to get the last 3 picks with no one else to over-bid me.

PPS oh, and until the later rounds I nominated players i didn't want at postiions I hadn't filled yet, to try and get people to spend their money on players I thought would be over-valued.

[StatmanCrothers]

my depth chart"

C-1B Buster Posey
1B Albert Pujols
2B Tsuyoshi Nishioka
SS Hanley Ramirez
3B-(2B) Jose Lopez
LF-(CF) Chris Coghlan
CF Denard Span CF-(LF) Michael Brantley
RF Nick Swisher
UTIL Adam Lind

SP Felix Hernandez
SP Tim Lincecum
SP Chad Billingsley SP James Shields
SP Tommy Hanson SP Ricky Romero

RP Carlos Marmol
RP Jonathon Broxton
RP Jonny Venters RP(SP) Chris Coke, Esmil Rogers, Nelson Figueroa

[Swirls]

Tsuyoshi Nishioka?

[StatmanCrothers]

Tsuyoshi Nishioka?

yeah thats the guy. got him for a buck.

[StatmanCrothers]

THE DOGS OF LUST
$43 Albert Pujols, StL 1B
$47 Hanley Ramirez, Fla SS
$33 Buster Posey, SF C
$36 Felix Hernandez, Sea SP
$33 Tim Lincecum, SF SP
$22 Tommy Hanson, Atl SP
$9 Carlos Marmol, ChC RP $9
$10 Chad Billingsley, LAD SP $10
$9 Jonathan Broxton, LAD RP $9
$1 Esmil Rogers, Col SP $1
$3 Adam Lind, Tor DH $3
$1 Phil Coke, Det RP $1
$2 James Shields, TB SP $2
$3 Nick Swisher, NYY RF $3
$1 Denard Span, Min CF $1
$1 Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Min 2B $1
$1 Jose Lopez, Col 3B $1
$1 Chris Coghlan, Fla LF $1
$1 Michael Brantley, Cle CF $1
$1 Ricky Romero, Tor SP $1
$1 Nelson Figueroa, Hou SP $1
$1 Jonny Venters, Atl RP $1