Former Cardinals Watch

[slide_into_first]

Ryan Theriot batting .322.

[Hungary Jack]

Ryan Theriot batting .322.

We were in first place with him out there.

[slide_into_first]

Ryan Theriot batting .322.

We were in first place with him out there.

That's all I remember, too.

[Jmodene]

Dan Haren, Hall of Famer? Um, ok.

Seriously, I don't see how that trade could have been worse than Carlton-for-Wise.

Rick Wise was pretty good. So was Reggie Smith. Actually Smith's 1974 season was more valuable than Carlton's.

WARs in the five years after the trade, and I'll be generous and zero out Mulder's 2006 season:

Code: Select all

                       Received   Sent   Net
Mulder/Haren+Friends        2.1   28.4 (26.3)
Carlton/Wise+Smith         19.1   25.0  (5.9)

Bernie Carbo was also part of the Wise-Smith trade, so the net is really something like (11.0). Carbo probably deserves a Looking Back thread, but for whatever reason, he's not going to push the needle that much.

Haren was responsible for 22.5 of that 28.4 WAR, which is to say he was not quite as good as Carlton, but if that 1972 season had been "merely" a 10-win season, the two of them would be interchangeable. That's how good Haren was from 2005 to 2009.

The problem with Smith was that we only had him for 2 1/2 seasons, then gave him to the Dodgers for catcher Joe Ferguson, who we had play outfield because we already had Ted Simmons. We then traded Ferguson to the Astros a half a season later for Larry Dierker, who only pitched a handful of games for the Cards before retiring after the 1977 season. In the meantime, Carlton still had ten years to go in *his* career.

It's a little disengenous, anyway, to try to convince us that losing Haren was worse than losing Carlton by comparing their first few years with their new teams. Carlton had the great 1972 season and then lost 20 games in 1973; he didn't really get it all together for keeps until the Phils picked up McCarver and made him Carlton's personal catcher. (I'm sure there were other factors involved with Carlton's improvement post-1974). It's way too early to suggest Haren as anything more than a pitcher who's going to have a pretty solid career. I just can't see him as a Hall of Famer. He's already 31 years old, he's won 107 games in his career, and has never won more than 16 in any one season. By the time Carlton was 31, he had won 145 games over nine-plus seasons and had twice won 20.

Moreover, in the next several seven seasons, Carlton would win 137 more games, with four more 20+ win seasons, putting him at 282 wins, with six 20-win seasons and four CYA awards (Haren has only gotten votes in two seasons, finishing no higher than fifth one years and seventh the other). If Haren takes off over the next seven seasons the way Carlton did, then you'd have an argument for Haren as a Hall of Famer. Right now, no.

Let's put it another way - from age 31 on, Carlton took a solid career and got even *better*. Haren, OTOH, is probably about as good as he'll ever be.

[slide_into_first]

There is no way to know if the Cardinals would have kept Carlton for his whole career, or if he would have trained with Gus Hoefling if he had remained a Cardinal.

[greenback44]

The problem with Smith was that we only had him for 2 1/2 seasons, then gave him to the Dodgers for catcher Joe Ferguson, who we had play outfield because we already had Ted Simmons.

The problem here is the odd Smith-Ferguson trade more than the Carlton-Wise trade.

Let's put it another way - from age 31 on, Carlton took a solid career and got even *better*. Haren, OTOH, is probably about as good as he'll ever be.

Yes, Haren needs to improve to approximate Carlton's entire career. That's a lot to ask, but Haren is the current active leader in career K/BB ratio, so it's possible... and that's why I'm watching him in 2012.

Even if Haren's approximately the same for the next five years as he's been the past five years, you're still left with a 50-WAR pitcher and the fact that the Cardinals gave Haren away for virtually nothing (actually it's worse than nothing, as they tossed in Barton and Calero). Combining his performance and trade return, Rick Wise was enormously more valuable than Mark Mulder, and that needs to be considered when comparing the two trades.

There is no way to know if the Cardinals would have kept Carlton for his whole career, or if he would have trained with Gus Hoefling if he had remained a Cardinal.

Yes, Carlton eventually would've been a free agent, and it's unlikely Gussie Busch was going to accede to his salary demands.

[Richie Allen]

Well Mulder certainly wasn't considered by most to be "nothing" when we traded Haren for him. In fact, he was considered by many to be the best left handed starter in the game and he was right in his prime. There are those that can argue that they knew this was going to be a bad trade before it happened but the fact is this ended up a lopsided trade almost entirely because of Mulder's health.

[cpebbles]

Mulder had not been in the conversation for the best LH starter in the game since his rookie season, and a lot of people were pointing to his steadily-declining K rate, his loss of velocity, and the sudden control problems in the year before Oakland dealt him, as signs that he was injured.

His arm was strong enough to pitch one year a little below league average, and he got enough defensive support to fool some people into ignoring the fact that his peripherals got even worse, but those people were right. Mulder was covered with red flags, and was already broken down when Jocketty traded for him.

[Richie Allen]

The guy pitched 225 innings the year before we traded for him. There were some warning signs but it's not like you just give up on a 26 year old with that kind of track record. Pitchers have off years all the time that doesn't necessarily mean anything other than it's an off year. There were red flags all over Steve Carlton's years with the Cardinals preceding the trade. His SO/9 went from 8.0 in 1970 to 6.8 in '71 to 5.7 in '72. The following year was one of the best years a pitcher has ever had, only to follow that up with a 20 loss season that saw his ERA shoot up 2.00 points, his WHIP up .40 and his ERA+ down 90 points. All by the age of 27.

[longhornbaseball]

Oh sweet a Mulder trade debate. Original.