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cardsfantx wrote: ↑

July 12 26, 5:07 pm

With our last pick; 20th round we pick Kollin Ritchie OF from OK state

MLB had him ranked #84?

Know anything about him Phins/how we got him in the 20th round? Don’t see anything about an injury?

Hit 326/462/804 for an OPS of 1.266 with 31 HRs?

A lot of SOs, but for a 20th round pick that was ranked in the top 100?

He won't sign.

Blurb on FanGraphs about Arizona's draft is a great reminder of the disconnect with many fans and the draft. If you asked most fans how they would feel about taking exactly Mike Zunino with the 15th pick overall, they'd tell you that's awful.

Zunino over his first six seasons in 1,885 at bats:

.207/.275/.406 slash line for a .681 OPS with plus defense. He gave them 13.6 WAR over that time, which is a good reminder of the low bar that catchers need to clear to be good players.

Most fans probably see how Zunino hit and the little impact he had an think of a guy who really was a disappointment, but really that's a great outcome for a mid-round first (I know Zunino was picked higher and they probably hoped for more).

Arizona was in a tough spot, caught in the middle of the round just after the more skillful hitters (who are usually their type) were picked. They were left with a choice between a few hitters with balanced skill sets but bottom-dwelling defensive fits (like Logan Hughes) or good up-the-middle defenders with hit tool risk. They ended up taking a player from the latter category in Helfrick, who can frame, throw, and has power that he might not tap into consistently due to strikeouts. He could be a Mike Zunino reboot of sorts, which would be a good outcome at the 15th pick.

If Condon gives us 13.6 WAR over his six seasons prior to free agency, that's a nice outcome and probably a great pick.

phins wrote: ↑

July 12 26, 6:51 pm

cardsfantx wrote: ↑

July 12 26, 5:07 pm

With our last pick; 20th round we pick Kollin Ritchie OF from OK state

MLB had him ranked #84?

Know anything about him Phins/how we got him in the 20th round? Don’t see anything about an injury?

Hit 326/462/804 for an OPS of 1.266 with 31 HRs?

A lot of SOs, but for a 20th round pick that was ranked in the top 100?

He won't sign.

And there you go. He's already said he's coming back to school. Throwaway pick they do most years at the end.

phins wrote: ↑

July 12 26, 6:51 pm

cardsfantx wrote: ↑

July 12 26, 5:07 pm

With our last pick; 20th round we pick Kollin Ritchie OF from OK state

MLB had him ranked #84?

Know anything about him Phins/how we got him in the 20th round? Don’t see anything about an injury?

Hit 326/462/804 for an OPS of 1.266 with 31 HRs?

A lot of SOs, but for a 20th round pick that was ranked in the top 100?

He won't sign.

Yep, he already has announced he’s returning to OK State

Clayton Freshcorn, their 19th round guy is a nice pick if he will sign. Has good data and is an athletic mover. Another reliever to starter convert as a dev project.

19th/20th rounds is when it gets dicey on if players are signing. Typically 15th and before is a lock nowadays.

phins wrote: ↑

July 12 26, 7:18 pm

Clayton Freshcorn, their 19th round guy is a nice pick if he will sign. Has good data and is an athletic mover. Another reliever to starter convert as a dev project.

19th/20th rounds is when it gets dicey on if players are signing. Typically 15th and before is a lock nowadays.

Was on mlb’s list of most intriguing picks on day 2…

Round 19 Pick 11 (564 overall), Cardinals, Clayton Freshcorn, RHP, Texas A&M (NR)
The 6-foot righty dominated as the Aggies’ closer with a Southeastern Conference-best 12 saves and a 51/5 K/BB ratio. His three-pitch mix -- fastball up to 96, mid-80s cutter, low-80s slider -- plays up thanks to his low release height and impressive extension, although his high-effort delivery gives concern to some.

Plus his name is freshcorn? Absolutely please

He's a much better talent than where he was picked, and it being in the 19th means there isn't a deal in place already. He's a top-150 guy for me in this draft, which is a nice add if you can get him. He's at $300K to sign, I'd guess.

Clayton Freshcorn entered the Aggie rotation in ’25 from JUCO and has turned into a 2-year high-leverage RP, despite having the command, athleticism, and dynamism for a rotation spot. However, he ended his A&M season with a 101-pitch outing in the Regionals, though the results were meh. Freshcorn looks way taller/bigger than the 6'180 measurements suggest, with high, wide shoulders and a high waist. Freshcorn has a lower-3/4 arm angle, releases around a foot below league average, and throws a flat-approach FB, all while maintaining slightly above-average extension.

That FB does create a ride above expected, although his feel for these shapes is inconsistent, occasionally lowering his ride. He’ll sit in the lower-90s, with pinpoint command at the top of the zone. Freshcorn blends an SL & a CT together, with near-identical movement profiles, although occasionally snapping the SL with an extended sweep and killing a couple of MPH in the process. The command for this is also plus, throwing it in-zone often, but it will need to branch out these profiles more.

His CH kills spin and velo extremely well, though it’s used infrequently (he’s typically throwing only 1–2 IP per game). If an org uses him as an SP (which they should), this is the pitch he will likely go to more to face lineups multiple times over. Last year, he twirled a CB that broke downward very sharply, though it was used infrequently.

@phins, if you've already posted this and I missed it, sorry, but overall, how would you grade the draft for us?

GeddyWrox wrote: ↑

July 13 26, 12:36 pm

@phins, if you've already posted this and I missed it, sorry, but overall, how would you grade the draft for us?

I give it a B+ without offering any supporting commentary whatsoever.

GeddyWrox wrote: ↑

July 13 26, 12:36 pm

@phins, if you've already posted this and I missed it, sorry, but overall, how would you grade the draft for us?

It generally takes me a day or so to collect my thoughts on a draft because of how it's a big puzzle and you have to see them fit.

I've mentioned Condon has a possible tweak already that has opened his power and that makes that pick better to me. I'm not a fan of Victor Scott types who are so low power they get the bat knocked out of their hands. I've never been on Scott as a prospect. A 5th rounder turning into a bench OF'er with a plus glove, legs, and some OBP is a phenomenal outcome. Not so much for your 13th overall pick. The rotational acceleration data being better at the combine makes me more in on that one. He's a high floor HS guy with star level outcomes if power is even a 50.

Kuhns was a personal fave. I would've taken Dietz, because I think his stuff is a touch better and he's LH, but Kuhns is a model darling with age and performance. He's such a great athlete the Bryan Woo outcomes are definitely there.

Maniscalco is a fun spin of the wheel. Arm, glove are plus to plus-plus. Great frame. He's a middling athlete believe it or not. I think he settles at 3B. His age is another model darling. The outcomes are vast on this one. A $3M bet (my guess on cost) is a big one there. Look at the $3M bets in this draft at 50 or later and that maybe isn't the one I make. But I really like his talent and age. He's also another grinder type who will get his tools up through hard work. I really liked Martin Sheral that the Red Sox took later and is a $3M bet as well (again, we will see what they sign for).

Andrew Williamson was a pick that is like a stock portfolio. You've taken a crazy energy, slash and burn CF athlete. You've taken a model darling athletic mover who needs overhaul of secondaries. You've taken a complete starter set ball of clay in the youngest prospect ever. Williamson is a bit of a large corp stock. Already a floor of power and swing decisions, you're probably getting at least a AA outcome player (that's an achievement to reach that level). He needs a swing tweak and doesn't have natural athleticism to stay up the middle so he's got to bang.

Montesa is a tiny arm, but cot dang is he athletic. His fastball plays and will definitely get him approaching a 40-man outcome. He's also a cut to buy the above. His pitch specs are exactly what Bloom does. VAA and rise on the fastball. Teach them to get more out of secondaries as long as they can spin it.

Dee Lawrence is a dude. Massive performer. Twitch. Athlete. Glove. Up the middle. Power. Can he get to it in games, but that's another corp stock.

Cal Randall could be a major leaguer today if they wanted. He'd get hit, but he wouldn't drown. That fastball might be an 80. Im just such a prude on giving 80's I always revert to giving 70. It's among the best fastballs in all of baseball any level. He has to be taught everything else though.

You get a bunch of pitch spec darlings, athletic movers, and dart throws from here. The 10th rounder is really good. I've noticed the Cardinals have taken really good prospects in the 10th while other teams take the seniors that round before the 11th.

Freshcorn is another big swing. I think they sign him. If they do, it's an A+ draft to me. If he doesn't sign, it's an A, because I don't like throwing away two picks at the end.

Overall, truly and honestly, they did a great job. It's not boom or bust. It's boom or big boom to me.