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MDCardsFan wrote:Honestly, does anybody feel comfortable with the idea of "trading one of our pitchers now that we have Weaver?"

I mean, really, our pitchers outside of Carp have little trade value right now and they all are performing horribly, but I wouldn't count on Weaver being better than any of them. I take it this guy can't be sent to the minors, so we could actually be hamstrung by this deal if he continues to get bombed.

Frankly, I don't see the difference between Weaver, Ponson, Suppan, Marquis or an injured Mulder right now, except Mulder could get healthy and the others could suck slightly less.

Brodie wrote:IMO this trade means that soup or Marquis is getting traded for a bat, maybe a playoff team that needs pitching but has an abundant of OF, someone like the Mets or Arizona, possibly this could be part of a bigger trade, (JUST GUESSING) marquis and prospects to marlins for cabrera or Willis....AGAIN THAT IS WHAT I AM GUESSING AND HOPING WILL HAPPEN

Brodie I want to see Cabrera come to town too, especially if it means they get Marquis. But Florida isn't going to trade for a 2 mil Rental in Marquis. And I don't particularly want Willis.

Marquis and Mulder are the only two SP's with any trade value (Reyes and Wainright so I lied).

The Cardinals can send him down to make a start with Dunc as long as he's back in 10 days right? That's what I'd like to see happen.

Keep the rotation Carp, Reyes, Marquis, Suppan and Ponson. Weaver works with Duc for one full rotation (5 games duhhh). I think he'll have improved and then it's easy to send Ponson to the bullpen or drop him.

Then when Mulder comes back that's another beast. I think you have to have a lefty for the Playoffs. So Marquis is really you're only trading peice. And then, I dont' want to trade him to a Division or NL contender. You're more likely to get something out of the AL as far as bats go anyway. TB (I love Crawford...too bad they want all Reyesesque Talent), NY could use the help and might have something laying around. Oakland and Texas might be able to deal us something.

One good thing about Weaver. (not speculating why here) He's K's/9 are over 6 his entire career. Marquis (presumably the best pitcher between Suppan Marquis Ponson) has an avg of 5.5. Only just over 4 this year. Weaver has two more K's per game than Marquis.

So if Dunc can get the ball down this guy may be ok.

thrill wrote:Story

There is some pretty funny stuff about the Angels evaluation of Evans. You can tell they did absolutely zero scouting of him.

"You look at his numbers and...he has hit a lot of homeruns."

Yeah that struck me as odd too. It's like they were just like "Evans? for Weaver? Uhhhh...yeah sure whatever". Do you think Walt sold him like that "Cmon Ahaheim, he hits a lot of homeruns!!"

Things to like about Weaver:

* In 5 of his 7 MLB seasons, he has had a WHIP of 1.32 or less, including last year's 1.17 (9th in the NL). In 2004 and 2005--when we had good pitching--only Carpenter and Morris posted WHIP's below that. He keeps guys off base (except in 2003, and now).

* He eats innings.

* In 4 of his 7 seasons, he's had an ERA+ of 103 or better.

* He can actually strike people out (his 162 game average is better than anyone on the staff not named Carpenter or Reyes).

* He has a decent arsenal of pitches. That immediately makes him better than Marquis and Ponson who rely on 1 pitch and some slop.

* He doesn't walk a whole lot of people (19th least among active starters). With that, he keeps a tidy K/BB ratio (21st among active pitchers).


Now the bad news.

* He hits a lot of batters. He's led the league 3 times, and he's been in the top 10 every season of his career.

* He allows a lot of HR's, at least recently. Prior to 2005, he wasn't really that bad (19, 16, 16, 19 in previous 4 seasons--3 Cardinals starters have already given up 14+ this season). Maybe it's something about LA that makes him serve up so many?

* He's been horrendous this year. Sounds like every other starter on the Cardinals.


Overall: I think it's a worthy gamble. He's not as great as some thought he once was, but he's 29 (will turn 30 next month), and there's some promising stuff under the surface.

I also think fanforever blows his HR rate while he was with the Yankees WAY out of proportion. 12 served up in 78.0 IP in 2003 was poor (though he still posted a decent 4.03 ERA). The 16 he served up in 159.1 IP the next year wasn't terrible (our pitchers are on worse rates this year). However, the 1.62 WHIP he posted that year didn't help.

Weaver was successful in the NL, unsuccessful in the AL. The AL doesn't have a weak 7-8-9 lineup. The NL does. I wouldn't be surprised to see him come about and have a ver strong second half, although with him constantly hitting batters, i also wouldn't be surprised to see Pujols see some high and tight pitches in the near future.

skmsw wrote:
Age 21: 163 major league innings
Age 22: 200 major league innings, ERA+ of 111
Age 23: 229 major league innings, and 110 pitcher PER START (ERA+ of 109)
Age 24: 199 major league innings, 112 pitches per start; ERA+ of 121
Age 25 on: ERA+ of 73, 103, 96, and this year's 50something.

I'm sorry, I can't just let this slide, especially when the numbers are inaccurate...

Drafted in 1998, pitched 31 professional innings + college innings.

Weaver was born on August 22, 1976.

Age 22/23, 163 MLB innings, 93.2 P/S
Age 23/24, 200 MLB innings, 105 P/S (#56 in PAP)
Age 24/25, 229 MLB innings, 110 P/S (#11 in PAP)
Age 25/26, 121.2 MLB innings, 112 P/S with Tigers, GOOD results
Age 25/26, 78 innings, 103.6 P/S with Yankess, BAD results (#10 in PAP)
Age 26/27, 159 innings, 103 P/S with Yankees, BAD results
Age 27/28, 220 innings, 101 P/S, average results
Age 28/29, 224 innings, 99 P/S, average results
Age 29/30, this year.

So yeah, Weaver has thrown his fair share of innings and pitches but his really big numbers came at age 24 and 25 when statistically he is supposed to be at his most durable.


Weaver turns 30 in just over a month, does it really make sense talk about his workload 5+ years ago as a reason for his struggles now? It sure didn't seem to affect him the previous two seasons. It would sure seem like a stretch to me to claim that Weaver will put up an ERA+ of 120 now because he did it as a 24/25 year old.

Regardless, I really like the Weaver move and the money really shouldn't be an issue. $3-4M should not be a big deal to the team and it really should be viewed as an investment. The Cards are fighting for their playoffs lives and the extra revenue gained from making the playoffs is huge. Ponson hasn't gotten people out since 2003. Weaver got people out as recently as last year.

Plus, Weaver has already completely collapsed and come back successfully once before so returning to a league average pitcher shouldn't be completely out of the question.

Also, don't underestimate the difference from going from the AL to NL. Normally that shaves about .5 runs off your ERA but since the quality of competition is much higher in the AL and the NL central is probably baseball's worst division, I would say that alone would knock .75 to 1 run off his ERA.

There's no way any pitcher would retaliate against Pujols for anything a Starting Pitcher did, short of intentionally gassing a 95mph FB at the guys ear. If one of your guys gets plunked with a 90 mph ball in the arm or back and you turn around and get Pujols on pay back? The benches will clear and the pitcher will get a lot more than a knot in his back.

stewie13 wrote:Also, don't underestimate the difference from going from the AL to NL. Normally that shaves about .5 runs off your ERA but since the quality of competition is much higher in the AL and the NL central is probably baseball's worst division, I would say that alone would knock .75 to 1 run off his ERA.

Ahh, that makes me feel all warm and tingly inside thinking about Marquis' and Sup's ERA's and how they'd be worse in the AL.

Morning perspective time.

I still don't see what's not to like about this deal. We found out today that Anaheim is paying half his salary or more. Which means he's only costing us about $2 million. That's not going to break the bank at all.

I also heard that the D-Backs are looking to move Shawn Green (among other players). That's a trade I've been pining for since about May.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5179/news

Now that the D-Backs have fallen to the back of a mediocre NL west they might be willing to move him for prospects.

Green is under contract for this year and next, with an option after that, and his salary is structured to make him tradeable this year and not next year.

Shawn Green of
3 years/$32M (2005-07), plus $10M 2008 option

$7M signing bonus ($5M paid in 05, $2M by 08)
05:$5.5M, 06:$8M, 07:$9.5M, 08:$10M mutual option ($2M buyout)
waived no-trade clause & agreed to 3-year extension & restructure 1/05 (Dodgers to pay $10M of $16M salary Green was to earn in 2005)
full no-trade clause 2005
limited no-trade clause 2006-07 allowing trades only to LAA, LAD & SD
6 years/$84M (2000-05)
$4M signing bonus
00:$8.75M, 01:$11.5M, 02:$12.75M, 03:$15M, 04:$16M, 05:$16M
agent: Greg Genske (formerly Jeff Moorad)
ML service: 11.063

LINK

If you've read my stuff on here this won't be new to you, but I still think it's a good option. He will be traded. Mark it down.

And yes, it would probably take AW or Reyes. I would give them AW but not Reyes.

longhornbaseball wrote:Just watched a couple of his starts. Velocity's still good (88-92) but he's in the middle of the plate. Secondary stuff can be decent but he's hung a lot of sliders and curves. His command ain't great but he misses in the zone instead of all over the place like our current starters. He's not gonna nibble and he still pitches inside. I think Dunc's "down, down, down" theory should work here.

Weaver is a worthwhile gamble, but he is a gamble.

He's always been a fly ball pitcher who works up in the zone; some guys can learn to be different under Duncan, others simply can't or won't do what he's trying to tell them because it doesn't fit their skills, approach or attitude.