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Re: 2026 MLB Draft
Posted: July 13 26, 7:19 pm
by phins
Oh yeah. If you like data, Ferraro is maybe your favorite pick. I've seen models that only use data saying he's a top-10 guy in this draft and he's worth millions to sign and will probably be a million dollar sign.
Big time get for a team in need of slug.
Re: 2026 MLB Draft
Posted: July 13 26, 8:31 pm
by CardsofSTL
My man Doyle might need to cut carbs.
Re: 2026 MLB Draft
Posted: July 13 26, 8:44 pm
by phins
CardsofSTL wrote: ↑July 13 26, 8:31 pm
My man Doyle might need to cut carbs.
BEEFY! There are several risk factors for a reliever going on here. Had actually hoped his body would trend the opposite way.
Re: 2026 MLB Draft
Posted: July 14 26, 8:15 am
by ghostrunner
I feel like he looks thinner there but I just saw a clip of him on the mound in that game, so I don't think so. Might be the hair. He's got big tree trunk legs. Brett Wallace comes to mind when I look at him.
- I just looked them both up. Not too far off. Brett Wallace shows up as 6-2, 250LB, which was after his 6th and final season in MLB. Doyle shows as 6-2, 220LB.
Also, good lord. Brett Wallace turns 40 soon. I'm so old.
Re: 2026 MLB Draft
Posted: July 14 26, 8:31 am
by cardsfantx
Kiley McDaniel at ESPN…
Best value: SS Rocco Maniscalco (second round) looked more like a late-first-round pick late in the process but a number of teams were in the same spot I was personally in, with a bad taste in my mouth when Maniscalco struggled in a high-profile game early in the spring against an 89-91 mph pitcher. Teams that stayed on him thought there was a 50-hit tool in there and he has been a standout runner and defender for the past year, then showed borderline shocking raw power at the draft combine and in private workouts.
There's real hit risk here, but he's also 17 years old. So many teams referenced that specific game as why they weren't on him that I think Maniscalco's market got depressed by 10-15 picks; no single game should do that.
Quickest to the big leagues: RHP Cal Randall (fifth round) might only have one pitch but it's a really good one, that might be good enough to get big league hitters out almost on its own. Randall sat 95-98 and hit 101 mph with good lift (18 IVB) from a low three-quarters slot and huge extension. It might be as perfect of a fastball shape as exists in the history of the sport.
Now, Randall has a violent delivery with below-average command and maybe only his slider could be at least an average big league pitch as currently constituted, but any kind of development here will equal a big league reliever.
A rival scout told me "if they get him in the zone consistently, he's in the bigs tomorrow." I'm kind of shocked the league left Randall on the board this long when half the teams will want to add a reliever for the next couple of deadlines in a row.
Sleeper to watch: RF Andrew Williamson (second round) went to my alma mater (UCF) but he also had a case to go higher than 68th, as I ranked him 50th. The first thing every scout notices is Williamson's exaggerated bat wrap.
Early in the spring, I assumed that would cost him a round or more from his comp/second-round tool set, but swing specialists assured me that Williamson is on time at the points in the swing that matters and that means he'll likely naturally reduce the wrap as he faces better velocity. There's 25-homer upside from the left side, solid-average speed, and fringy-to-average bat-to-ball ability.
One big thought: If it wasn't clear yet, this is probably my favorite draft class out of all 30, even acknowledging that it's easy to look good with extra picks. I've written a number of times about how much I like CF Trevor Condon (first round). He's just the kind of player I want to bet on, even if he won't light up a workout.
Let's run through the other guys I liked for where they were drafted. RHP Tegan Kuhns (comp round) needs a tweak to his breaking ball but could be a midrotation starter in short order. RHP Dawson Montesa (second round) has solid-average stuff headlined by a heater up to 98 mph and will be a starter if he can improve his fastball command one notch. RF Caden Ferraro didn't play in the field a ton this spring, but wowed teams with his athletic testing in predraft workouts after raking all season. SS Dee Kennedy (fourth round) has tons of secondary skills (patience, pull/lift to get to power, speed) and fits up the middle, so I can live with some swing-and-miss. RHP Jacob Haley (11th round) showed above-average stuff in limited innings this spring.
Re: 2026 MLB Draft
Posted: July 14 26, 8:40 am
by phins
Haley is a guy I admittedly don't know a ton about (I'm a dork in my basement who studies the video and data, I miss some guys). Maybe he's a better pick than I have credit for. When they took him I made the sour face, but sounds like he's a decent dart.
The Seton Hill kid is the type who goes to West Virginia, rakes, then goes high. They saw the data and threw a few hundred K at him to get him now. I don't have an opinion on him because he's truly just a number on a Trackman CSV right now to me.
My least favorite picks were the San Diego catcher and Horn from Middle Tennessee. Montesa I understand as a money saver.
That's indicative of an incredible draft to my eyes when you're picking nits to that degree to find a least favorite.
Re: 2026 MLB Draft
Posted: July 14 26, 9:10 am
by WAR God
Chaim Bloom is my dad.
Re: 2026 MLB Draft
Posted: July 14 26, 11:13 am
by phins
Callis named their draft #1, Kiley McDaniel named it #1, most models have it #1, and FanGraphs was more so-so on it.
1. Cardinals
The Cardinals spent two of their top three selections on a pair of high schoolers: outfielder Trevor Condon (first round), who offered the best combination of hitting ability and speed in the prep class and might be the next Pete Crow-Armstrong; and shortstop Rocco Maniscalco (second), one of the youngest players and best defenders available. Tennessee right-hander Tegan Kuhns' (supplemental first) stuff and strikes made him one of the best college mound prospects, while West Virginia righty Dawson Montesa (supplemental second) is an interesting upside play and UCLA righty Cal Randall (fifth) is a fast-track reliever with one of the best fastballs in the Draft. Central Florida outfielder Andrew Williamson (supplemental second), Texas Tech outfielder Caden Ferraro (third) and Kansas State shortstop Dee Kennedy (fourth) are all proven college performers.
Re: 2026 MLB Draft
Posted: July 14 26, 11:37 am
by cardsfantx
we haven't signed anyone yet, but I saw that the braves already have a bunch...
Their 1st round pick (9th overall) Garcia's slot was 6.6 and he signed well below slot at 3.9
Their 8, 9 and 10th round picks all signed for $500 lol; that's not 500k; that's 500.00
Their 3rd round pick Hirschkorn was prob why as his slot was 900k and they went 3 million over to sign him at 3.9 mil
Re: 2026 MLB Draft
Posted: July 14 26, 1:28 pm
by phins
cardsfantx wrote: ↑July 14 26, 11:37 am
we haven't signed anyone yet, but I saw that the braves already have a bunch...
Their 1st round pick (9th overall) Garcia's slot was 6.6 and he signed well below slot at 3.9
Their 8, 9 and 10th round picks all signed for $500 lol; that's not 500k; that's 500.00
Their 3rd round pick Hirschkorn was prob why as his slot was 900k and they went 3 million over to sign him at 3.9 mil
Yes. The Braves are a great example when I say it's a puzzle. They paid Hirschkorn the same amount as their #9 overall pick.
The Red Sox might pay their 9th rounder Martin Shelar more than their first rounder.
MLB Draft is unusual in how where you're drafted isn't a reflection of your talent. The only reason those $500 guys were even picked was to get their bonus pool dollars to count. Otherwise they aren't draft choices, but it'd worth it to them to forever be able to say they were an 8th round pick or whatever.