Coronavirus

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

I'm sorry to hear about your mom, Sigh.

[Jocephus]

it's kinda crazy to look at a day by day cases chart at this point. i'm no scientist and speaking generally but like, those early months were around 20k per day and that felt/seemed bad and a lot of the country was actually in a lockdown/quarantine of sorts at that time... but then the spike at the end of june to middle of august completely obliterated the highs from the early months, doubling them...then end of august and early sept it was going down but even then the lows are basically even or higher than the early months peaks and now getting back up to the summer months totals. the US response has been utterly pathetic.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

those early months daily cases should be taken with a grain of salt due to the lack of testing though, the daily cases in march/april were likely much higher than what is shown. The deaths/hospitalizations from that time tell the true story even if treatment has, marginally, improved since then.

Regardless, agreed the US response has been bad.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Ran across this video where Fauci more/less says 3rd/4th quarter of 2021 is when he sees the masks, possibly, coming off and being needed less because the infection rate will be low, not gone, if a large majority of people get vaccinated. That's like 12 months away and very unlikely (even Fauci expresses concern that people won't get vaccinated). We are now what about 7 months going on 8092 into this pandemic? That's a long way to go. insert sad face here.

o/u on when it's 'gone'? June 2023

[Leroy]

So I am up to five people that I know personally that have / had it. One partner in our company (that I never see), a restaurant owner and three musicians (though none got it from actually musicianing). Based on this sample of 60% being accomplished musicians, I should be totally fine.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Just found out a guy I did business with occasionally got it in late september and died last week. We were supposed to have a meeting next week and his coworker called. That's the first person I've personally known that perished.

[Popeye_Card]

I’m up to dozens of people I know having had it, including 3 of my employees, and 3 deaths - all more acquaintances than close friends/colleagues. All of the deaths were 60+ years old.

[mikechamp]

Post 1 of 2 on national topics. One is an update on infections, and the other is a projection on mask-wearing:

New cases hit three-month high as Covid-19 hospitalizations soar

Thursday was the first day with more than 70,000 new US Covid-19 cases in three months, and the hospitalization rate is soaring, new data reveal. Thirty-two states reported rising Covid-19 infections, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. Thursday was the highest day for new infections since July 24 and the day with the fourth highest total ever, at 71,671, Johns Hopkins says.

More than 41,000 people were hospitalized across the country, according to the Covid Tracking Project. This is the highest level of nationwide hospitalizations since Aug 20. The number of people hospitalized has increased by 33% since the beginning of October, the CTP says.

Deaths are also creeping upward, with 856 on Thursday, Johns Hopkins says. The 7-day average of deaths continues to climb and is up to 763. That is the highest level of average weekly deaths in a month.

An updated model from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projects more than 140,000 Americans will likely die from the virus in the next three months.

https://www.kmov.com/new-cases-hit-thre ... 05e3e.html

Some of these numbers are staggering, and I really hope we don't get to this point:

Wearing masks could save more than 100,000 US lives through February, new study suggests

If 95% of Americans wore masks in public, more than 100,000 lives could be saved from Covid-19 through February, a new modeling study suggests.

The study -- from the Covid-19 forecasting team at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation -- notes that, as of September 21, only about 49% of US residents reported that they "always" wear a mask in public.

If mask-wearing remains 49% through February and states continue with removing social distancing mandates, the Covid-19 death toll across the United States could reach about 1 million deaths by February 28, according to the study, published in the journal Nature Medicine on Friday.

https://www.kmov.com/wearing-masks-coul ... 36c65.html

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Okay, looked at a lot of past pandemics and how they ended. Obviously, this pandemic is unlike anything in the past, save 2009 which barely qualified. It's unlike the past due to 1. vastly superior medical knowledge/technology (did you know even in 1918 they were using heat therapy like warming up and cooling people down as a therapeutic) and 2. social media.

Every time Fauci talks, he speaks of a medical ending where the virus is so minimal its effects are negligible. And, that is heavily reliant on vaccines to help suppress viral transmission/new infections. But, almost assuredly before we get there, we'll have a social ending where people, by and large, quit caring. A lot already have. A lot never started. You can pretty easily argue the H1N1 pandemic, outside a few intellectual organizations, socially ended about the same second the pandemic began.

Interestingly, civilization at some point learned about avoidance, distancing, isolation, etc. as a means to combat the spread. And, England in particular dealt with the plague for over 300 years with nothing to combat it other than various quarantine measures for the sick! Tens of generations in London lived and died knowing only life with a pandemic surrounding them. Crazy.

Anyway, all that to say, if history is any indication and its something we've somewhat hinted at, there may not be a true medical ending for quite some time where a vaccine and public health measures are able to eradicate the virus. But, society will largely grow tired enough of the pandemic where it collectively ceases caring. And, we won't be the first. Now, that's tragic and will lead to more loss of life, undoubtedly. I'm not advocating for it.

But, instead of setting an o/u on when the pandemic 'ends', perhaps the question can be turned around. Perhaps the question is simply, how long are people willing to keep this up? If a vaccine can't be made, how long will people stay away from: school, family, flying on planes, sporting events, etc? If I said, we'll have a vaccine in the year 2025, who will keep their kids out of school for the next 5 years? Who won't have weddings, family reunions, holidays, etc? Because, that may in fact be the more apropos question.

[GeddyWrox]

Well stated, AW.