Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus (Update: Finalized!)

[haltz]

I'd rather have the player who plays. Most indicators suggest the player who plays provides greater value.

Statistics suggest that over his injury-plagued three year downswing, Rolen has had greater value.

[haltz]

Glaus is pretty solid from what I've seen. He's no Rolen, but he's also not Braun.

Put a number on that. Otherwise it's meaningless. We know that a play made is worth about .8 runs. The Jays think they can quantify it or it wouldn't be happening. The Cardinals actually used UZR for years.

[picasso]

I'd rather have the player who plays. Most indicators suggest the player who plays provides greater value.

Statistics suggest that over his injury-plagued three year downswing, Rolen has had greater value.

Is there really a greater value to 80 games of Rolen, 30 games of Spezio, and 40 of Ryan/Miles vs 140 of Glaus, and 20 fill-in 3B games a crux in the argument? It is in mine.

[Magneto2.0]

Glaus is pretty solid from what I've seen. He's no Rolen, but he's also not Braun.

Put a number on that. Otherwise it's meaningless. We know that a play made is worth about .8 runs. The Jays think they can quantify it or it wouldn't be happening. The Cardinals actually used UZR for years.

Again, I don't have much faith in defensive numbers, and no one has yet to give me a reasonable metric to follow. They vary too significantly depending on what stats you use. Some will have Glaus as awul, other will have him just above middle of the pack.

Completely different animal then offensive ones.

[EastonBlues22]

I'd rather have the player who plays. Most indicators suggest the player who plays provides greater value.

Not that I'm disagreeing with you, but I don't think any of us are going to be able to form an intelligent informed opinion on which one that will be. Certainly the last two years (268 vs 254) haven't shown a huge discrepancy...and both have been trending in the wrong direction over that time. Foot injuries can cripple a career just as easily as a shoulder one, and they can also be very difficult to rehabilitate to a level that allows for athletic excellence.

That's about all the "data" we have access to, so anything is going to be based on our almost completely uninformed medical opinions. If we're going to debate intelligently the relative merits of this trade, we should almost certainly avoid making definitive claims based on that and simply stick to what we know or can deduce intelligently.

[cpebbles]

Is there really a greater value to 80 games of Rolen, 30 games of Spezio, and 40 of Ryan/Miles vs 140 of Glaus, and 20 fill-in 3B games a crux in the argument? It is in mine.

If you believe in UZR and thus that Rolen has been the better player, we're better off with 80 games of Rolen right up until the missed playing time starts to go to someone appreciably below replacement-level. Spiezio happens to be comfortably above replacement level.

[cards2468]

Glaus is pretty solid from what I've seen. He's no Rolen, but he's also not Braun.

Put a number on that. Otherwise it's meaningless. We know that a play made is worth about .8 runs. The Jays think they can quantify it or it wouldn't be happening. The Cardinals actually used UZR for years.

Again, I don't have much faith in defensive numbers, and no one has yet to give me a reasonable metric to follow. They vary too significantly depending on what stats you use. Some will have Glaus as awul, other will have him just above middle of the pack.

Completely different animal then offensive ones.

Might be 1 of those rare times that a scouting report would give you more answers, I've been seeing that range of stats on Glaus as well

[haltz]

Again, I don't have much faith in defensive numbers, and no one has yet to give me a reasonable metric to follow. They vary too significantly depending on what stats you use. Some will have Glaus as awul, other will have him just above middle of the pack.

You don't even need to (though the teams in question making the decisions sure do), based on what you've said. You think Rolen is a top defensive 3B, and that Glaus could be OK. Maybe even slightly above average. What do you think the range of impact that a 3B can provide is? -10 to +10? -25 to +25?

There's a general consensus that Rolen is a modern day Brooks Robinson. You don't think it's likely that he's a win+ better than an "awful" to "just above the middle of the pack" third baseman?

[maddash]

his range of motion and strength are exactly what the doctors will check. How that translates to the field, I don't know.

There's the rub for me. What the doctors and Rolen say are essentially meaningless, as we went through all this last year. Until we actually see Rolen turn on a few fastballs inside, and for more then a few games, and without the aide of cortisone shots... we really have no idea what we've got with him. That a serious unknown, and serious unknowns are things teams should generally avoid. We lose the high risk/reward option, which isn't such a bad thing considering what we're dealing with in '08 and probably '09, but if Glaus is the return I say go for it.

[picasso]

I'd rather have the player who plays. Most indicators suggest the player who plays provides greater value.

Not that I'm disagreeing with you, but I don't think any of us are going to be able to form an intelligent informed opinion on which one that will be. Certainly the last two years (268 vs 254) haven't shown a huge discrepancy...and both have been trending in the wrong direction over that time. Foot injuries can cripple a career just as easily as a shoulder one, and they can also be very difficult to rehabilitate to a level that allows for athletic excellence.

That's about all the "data" we have access to, so anything is going to be based on our almost completely uninformed medical opinions. If we're going to debate intelligently the relative merits of this trade, we should almost certainly avoid making definitive claims based on that and simply stick to what we know or can deduce intelligently.

Isn't Glaus' "injury" the same as Pujols' I would be a lot more comfortable with Pujols recovering from Plantar Facitus surgery rather than Rolen's 4 yr shoulder recovery plan.