Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus (Update: Finalized!)

[clevername]

I'm not getting too much into the stats argument as I'm ill equipped for it, but who is more valuable in this overly simplistic model: player a who accounts for 10 runs in 1 game who doesn't play in the next 9 games vs player b who accounts for 7 runs in 10 games?

[EastonBlues22]

Isn't Glaus' "injury" the same as Pujols' I would be a lot more comfortable with Pujols recovering from Plantar Facitus surgery rather than Rolen's 4 yr shoulder recovery plan.

From what I know, it is...but that doesn't mean it is to the same degree of severity. We know it's a very painful condition that is very hard to get rid of, and Glaus only played in 115 games last year. How confident can you really be that Glaus will put up 130+ in 2008? It can't be that much more confident than you would have in Rolen putting up the same number.

[Magneto2.0]

Again, I don't have much faith in defensive numbers, and no one has yet to give me a reasonable metric to follow. They vary too significantly depending on what stats you use. Some will have Glaus as awul, other will have him just above middle of the pack.

You don't even need to (though the teams in question making the decisions sure do), based on what you've said. You think Rolen is a top defensive 3B, and that Glaus could be OK. Maybe even slightly above average. What do you think the range of impact that a 3B can provide is? -10 to +10? -25 to +25?

There's a general consensus that Rolen is a modern day Brooks Robinson. You don't think it's likely that he's a win+ better than an "awful" to "just above the middle of the pack" third baseman?

Maybe defensively he is a win better, I guess. But when you account for offense, Glaus makes up for it.


Based off recent history, the comparative stats average out to be around

Glaus is likely to put up 30+/.360/.510
While Rolen is looking at 9/.365/.420 or so

Glaus hit more HRs in 2006 then Rolen has the last three seasons combined.

[cpebbles]

I'm not sure where lboros got the info on Glaus's glove. PMR says he is consistently below average and was horrid in '05 (While Rolen is routinely 20+ runs above average). Dewan says he was a few runs better than average in '06 and '07 but below average in '05. Chris Dial's adjusted ZR says he's a butcher. Scouts agree with this general consensus, as do his last few teams and fans in general.

Basically, Glaus comes out above average if you go by range factor, a stat whose inventor acknowledges that it's useless now that it's been supplanted by metrics that better measure what it was intended for.

[Rieges]

Easton, I think you're guilty of the same speculative medical analysis that you're accusing others of engaging in to justify your point. You're absolutely correct that none of us are qualified to make medical judgments (I don't think any of us are medical professionals). However, we can all make educated guesses as to future performance and health based on past performance and past health and the recent history does not bode well for Rolen.

You can reasonably speculate, as you have, that Rolen's performance should have suffered in the second half of '06 (as it did) due to his original surgeries. However, wouldn't it be logical to then speculate that Rolen, after another full off-season of conditioning, would have then had a fully healthy and productive '07? You have also speculated that Rolen's failure to rest his sore shoulder last season is what really led to his poor performance and that it was a downward spiral from there due to his altering his mechanics. Wouldn't the fact that he was experiencing shoulder pain/soreness to begin with so early in the season and Rolen himself reportedly saying that the shoulder felt the best it had since the surgeries seriously concern you about the prospects of his future health? You also point to Rolen's inability to take himself out of the line-up as being the crux of the problem. What makes you believe that Rolen's decision-making will change should he experience further shoulder problems or soreness or even have other injuries?

In the end, there are more questions than answers when it comes to Rolen's shoulder and that alone should tell you that Glaus is the better bet to remain a healthy, productive player. Factor in the contracts and Rolen's desire to be somewhere else and to me, the decision is easy.

I'll leave you with a quote from Will Carroll from one of his "Under the Knife" reports on baseball prospectus from September: "While Rolen should be fine for next spring, his last, more major procedure only got him through about a season and a half, and he suffered problems along the way. The sad fact is that Rolen is going to be affected by his bum shoulder for the remainder of his career." No offense, but I'm more willing to put stock in his assessment than yours.

[maddash]

Isn't Glaus' "injury" the same as Pujols' I would be a lot more comfortable with Pujols recovering from Plantar Facitus surgery rather than Rolen's 4 yr shoulder recovery plan.

From what I know, it is...but that doesn't mean it is to the same degree of severity. We know it's a very painful condition that is very hard to get rid of, and Glaus only played in 115 games last year. How confident can you really be that Glaus will put up 130+ in 2008? It can't be that much more confident than you would have in Rolen putting up the same number.

Glaus will be playing 82 less games on turf, that's a good start. Plus, from a scouting standpoint, I think we know that Rolen's injury is far more directly tied to his offensive problems than Glaus'. Which could be a good thing if the shoulder is fine, or a terrible thing if it's still shot. Essentially, it just means that Rolen is a higher risk/reward player... so pick your poison.

[picasso]

Isn't Glaus' "injury" the same as Pujols' I would be a lot more comfortable with Pujols recovering from Plantar Facitus surgery rather than Rolen's 4 yr shoulder recovery plan.

From what I know, it is...but that doesn't mean it is to the same degree of severity. We know it's a very painful condition that is very hard to get rid of, and Glaus only played in 115 games last year. How confident can you really be that Glaus will put up 130+ in 2008? It can't be that much more confident than you would have in Rolen putting up the same number.

This is very layman and may not apply at all. But I really believe from a hitting aspect, batting with a cast on my foot would be easier than hitting with a sore/bad shoulder. And apparently Pujols plays thru this on a daily basis. If comparing a heel inflamation to a chronically injured shoulder as a hitting impairment, I believe the heel would be preferable by 9 out of 10 physicians.

[Rieges]

How confident can you really be that Glaus will put up 130+ in 2008? It can't be that much more confident than you would have in Rolen putting up the same number.

Yes, I can be and am more confident in Glaus' health. Glaus played two full seasons in the previous twoprior to '07 and was more productive. Recent history is in Glaus' favor.

[Magneto2.0]

How confident can you really be that Glaus will put up 130+ in 2008? It can't be that much more confident than you would have in Rolen putting up the same number.

Yes, I can be and am more confident in Glaus' health. Glaus played two full seasons in the previous twoprior to '07 and was more productive. Recent history is in Glaus' favor.

We've all just been arguing the same thing for pages now, but to end my part, I will say I will be in utter shock if Glaus isn't FAR better then Rolen offensively in 2008. I'd bet my house on it. Seriously.

[cpebbles]

Will Carroll is not a medical professional, he just plays one on the internet.

BTW, there are a couple of medical professionals on this forum, me for one. However, none of us really has any real clue about his prognosis because there is no data on recovery from this kind of injury/surgery in athletes.

As for the suggestion that doctors proclaimed Rolen fit to perform in '07, I can't find anything to back that up. What I can find is that he proclaimed himself ready and did not see the team doctors about his shoulder (With whom he already had a shaky relationship) until July, when they gave him a cortisone shot to see how he responded. The next month, he saw Kremcheck and was immediately shut down.