Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus (Update: Finalized!)

[haltz]

Easton, I think you're guilty of the same speculative medical analysis that you're using to justify your point.

I don't think so, I think he's just saying we aren't privy to the medical info, which is a good point. That's mostly the stance that his rebuttals are coming from as far as I can tell. FWIW, he's in the Pharm industry, and Dangerous and Clevername are MDs IIRC.

In the end, there are more questions than answers when it comes to Rolen's shoulder and that alone should tell you that Glaus is the better bet to remain a healthy, productive player.

And Cesar Izturis is a good bet to play like Cesar Izturis, and Brendan Ryan is a bit of an unknown. Glaus might be good for 140 games, a .290 EQA and average defense in a punt year. He's also got a NTC. Then he has a player option for when we might be able to compete again in 2009. That's it. If he hits, see you later. If his planter fasciitis incapacitates him he'll exercise it.

This is basically a salary dump. Something that disappoints me with Rolen.

[Magneto2.0]

Easton, I think you're guilty of the same speculative medical analysis that you're using to justify your point.

I don't think so, I think he's just saying we aren't privy to the medical info, which is a good point. That's mostly the stance that his rebuttals are coming from as far as I can tell. FWIW, he's in the Pharm industry, and Dangerous and Clevername are MDs IIRC.

In the end, there are more questions than answers when it comes to Rolen's shoulder and that alone should tell you that Glaus is the better bet to remain a healthy, productive player.

And Cesar Izturis is a good bet to play like Cesar Izturis, and Brendan Ryan is a bit of an unknown. Glaus might be good for 140 games, a .290 EQA and average defense in a punt year. He's also got a NTC. Then he has a player option for when we might be able to compete again in 2009. That's it. If he hits, see you later.

This is basically a salary dump. Something that disappoints me with Rolen.

I thought the hold up on the deal was the Cardinals want him to guarantee he will stay beyond 2008?

[haltz]

I missed that I guess. I thought it was done.

Here's the latest I could find from ESPN:

The St. Louis Cardinals have reached agreement on a trade with Toronto that will send third baseman Scott Rolen to the Blue Jays for third baseman Troy Glaus, two major league sources said.

The deal will be completed once the two players undergo physical exams Monday, sources said.

Since the trade also includes a financial component, it's also subject to the approval of commissioner Bud Selig. It's uncertain which club is receiving money in the deal, or how much cash is changing hands.

[greenback44]

This is basically a salary dump. Something that disappoints me with Rolen.

My main thought on this is that it's not nearly as ugly a salary dump as the Edmonds deal. There's a decent, though less than 50/50 IMHO, chance that Glaus and his successor are better than Rolen over the next three years. I've been conditioned to accept this kind of crap, I guess. After you posted the link about Rolen's home going up for sale, I was preparing for something substantially worse than Troy Glaus in 2008.

I also suspect that Rolen's shoulder will get better once he leaves St. Louis. It's tough to work with a brittle player that actively hostile to management and to the medical staff.

Will Carroll plays an actuary playing a doctor. It's an odd role he's created for himself.

[EastonBlues22]

Maybe defensively he is a win better, I guess. But when you account for offense, Glaus makes up for it.

I think you're underselling the defensive gap again, but I really don't think it's going to be a productive argument if I show why I disagree so I'm just going to note the difference and let it slide. If Haltz wants to elaborate here, then more power to him.

Based off recent history, the comparative stats average out to be around

Glaus is likely to put up 30+/.360/.510
While Rolen is looking at 9/.365/.420 or so

Glaus hit more HRs in 2006 then Rolen has the last three seasons combined.

In 2006 Rolen hit a HR once every 23.7 AB. His career average prior to 2006 was one HR every 19.8 ABs. That's hardly damning evidence that the reconfigured shoulder structure is going to limit him to the level of production that you seem to have him pegged for. Even including 2007, which I am loathe to do, he's hitting one every 30 ABs or so. Over 140 games you have him hitting one every 58 ABs or so. How do you justify that?

We'll bypass the obvious discussion that the HR is hardly the be-all-end-all measurement of offensive contributions and move onto this: Various defensive metrics suggest that Rolen is anywhere from 15 to 30+ runs better than Glaus on average. Since a HR is "worth" 1.4 runs on average, Rolen's defense spots him in the neighborhood of 11 to 22 "HRs" over Glaus right from the get-go. We'll split the difference and call it a 14.5 HR advantage.

Glaus's career averages put him at 31 HRs over 140 games...holding all else equal (even though they aren't), how confident are you that Rolen can't hit 15 HR over 140 games to make up the difference? Because his 2007 pace alone puts him at 11 HR over 140 games. Just a theoretical example to highlight their relative potentials and worth...

[clevername]

Bernie was the one who reported the Cards were wanting 09 guaranteed before the trade. Haven't heard anything on that since.

On the shoulder (or the foot, for that matter), I know the general stuff about it that general doc's should know, namely when it's jacked up enough to send it to an orthopod. Once you get into surgery (and especially repeated surgeries), my knowledge base quickly runs out. From the discussions I had with orthopods during training, though, repeated shoulder surgeries with persistent problems afterwards is pretty much universally bad news. You can be functional, absolutely, but normalcy isn't a real goal anymore. Grain of salt and all that.

I feel better risking Glaus being healthy than I do Rolen.

[Fat Strat]

Did I really read somewhere that Rolen was 26 runs better than Glaus last year (or was that over the course of three years?)

Personally, I don't see how Rolen is 26 runs better than Glaus defensively, especially when Rolen missed time (in other words, he's really 30-35 runs better over a full season). Just as an illustration, to reach that number Glaus would have to miss a play at third with a runner in scoring position every game for an entire month. A 3rd baseman just doesn't see THAT many plays. I would bet good money that Rolen only makes 1-2 plays that an average thirdbaseman wouldn't make every 3-4 games... I would also be willing to bet that runners are on base in probably 1/3 of those scenarios, and that's being generous. It's hard to see 26 runs difference out of that.

Look, I don't doubt that Rolen is an amazing defender. But, 26 runs is a ton of runs.

I'm sure you'll tell me that 26 runs was over the course of three years and my argument is pointless. (8-9 runs a year... I can believe that.)

[clevername]

Did I really read somewhere that Rolen was 26 runs better than Glaus last year (or was that over the course of three years?)

Personally, I don't see how Rolen is 26 runs better than Glaus defensively, especially when Rolen missed time (in other words, he's really 30-35 runs better over a full season). Just as an illustration, to reach that number Glaus would have to miss a play at third with a runner in scoring position every game for an entire month. A 3rd baseman just doesn't see THAT many plays. I would bet good money that Rolen only makes 1-2 plays that an average thirdbaseman wouldn't make every 3-4 games... I would also be willing to bet that runners are on base in probably 1/3 of those scenarios, and that's being generous. It's hard to see 26 runs difference out of that.

Look, I don't doubt that Rolen is an amazing defender. But, 26 runs is a ton of runs.

I'm sure you'll tell me that 26 runs was over the course of three years and my argument is pointless. (8-9 runs a year... I can believe that.)

that's been confusing me in this conversation as well.

[haltz]

My main thought on this is that it's not nearly as ugly a salary dump as the Edmonds deal. There's a decent, though less than 50/50 IMHO, chance that Glaus and his successor are better than Rolen over the next three years. I've been conditioned to accept this kind of crap, I guess. After you posted the link about Rolen's home going up for sale, I was preparing for something substantially worse than Troy Glaus in 2008.

No it isn't, but I'm more concerned about the upper bounds here. There's some chance that any 3B in the league will be better than Rolen. I don't really care about that, and I don't really care that DeWitt wants to save himself some money. I just don't think it will translate to wins.

My salary dump comment depends on what happens with the money and option I guess.

Will Carroll plays an actuary playing a doctor. It's an odd role he's created for himself.

I'd like to see a study comparing Will Carroll, and let's say an orangutan picking red, yellow, and green lights.

[maddash]

As for the suggestion that doctors proclaimed Rolen fit to perform in '07, I can't find anything to back that up. What I can find is that he proclaimed himself ready and did not see the team doctors about his shoulder (With whom he already had a shaky relationship) until July, when they gave him a cortisone shot to see how he responded. The next month, he saw Kremcheck and was immediately shut down.

Here's what Rolen said in ST of '07

"I'm a different guy sitting here today than I was sitting here last offseason, when I was hopeful or optimistic about the season coming up or about my shoulder progress," Rolen said. "When I was here last year, I hadn't lifted a weight yet. I don't think I was capable of lifting a weight. That's not the case anymore. I'm doing my old routine. I am totally free from any limitations."

And as far as doctors proclaiming players fit to play, I don't think you have to find anything to back that up. He wouldn't be playing if he wasn't medically cleared, which probably happens regularly throughout the season - I know he was "medically cleared" to play in the post season of '06, as it was widely reported in the media after his benching. Hell, Mulder was "medically cleared" to play when it was obvious his shoulder was garbage. Which is why I believe that information is meaningless - we actually have to see Rolen play to know how he'll perform.