Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus (Update: Finalized!)

[Fat Strat]

He played 115 games last year. If he doesn't play well he'll get us a type B sandwich pick. That's not worth $12M. If he hits 38 homers again, let's just say that he'll be 31 and looking at injuries (and a potential move to 1B in the future which would limit his value), so he'd be pretty stupid to pick up his own option.

Welll... true. I'm still operating under a general attitude of "it's always better to win". If we dump Rolen's salary for nothing and replace him with Spez we won't win jack squat, and that's not as desirable as a sandwich pick. Under the this season doesn't matter logic (safe logic, actually), a salary dump actually might be more benefitial... but still a tough pill for this team to swallow.

[haltz]

Actually, I don't see the Cardinals offering him arbitration for a sandwich pick if he doesn't play well (if he would even warrant type B status). Eckstein, anyone? This time I would actually agree with them though.

[stlouie_lipp]

Ankiel was cleared by MLB after it was shown that he legally was given the steroids as part of his recovery from pitching related injuries... rather than illegally taking them to help reach epic levels of playing and maintain abilities into his 40's

You don't really believe that do you?

[tenniseleven]

if you are the Cardinals then you ABSOLUTELY want the option picked up right now...

otherwise the option is a lose-lose situation...

If Glaus plays well then he probably looks to the market to get a nice 3-4 year contract...

which is a lose for the Cardinals considering we're focused on 2009 and beyond, not 2008...we'd have a big hole to fill for 2009...

If Glaus is injured or plays badly then he may pick up the option if he doesn't think he gets a good deal from free agency...
a lose for the Cardinals, spending 11+M on a player that doesn't hold a lot of value...


ensuring that the option is picked up right now is risk management from the Cards perspective...
that's if they believe the chance Glaus is a productive player in 09 is better than the chance that he's injury-riddled...

[BW23]

I'm a huge Rolen fan, but I have to say that my gut feeling is that I like this trade. I really, really hope Rolen comes back with a healthy shoulder. I'm not betting on it, but I hope he does.

I just think it's foolish to say anything about Rolen offensive stats or how he's been better than Glaus "on average" over a certain period of time. The fact is that he's rarely ever healthy. His one healthy season was 2003, and the Cards actually missed the playoffs then. He was hurt in the playoffs of 02, hurt in September of 04 and was MIA after that (except for a good NLCS), and hurt in 05 with the bad shoulder that's kept him hurt/ineffective since.

Then throw in the feud mess, and they had to get rid of him, IMO.

Now, I believe Glaus will be healthier. There's no question that Rolen is much better on defense. Nobody will deny that. And Rolen's shoulder won't prevent him from being good on defense still. But playing in Toronto won't do him any favors.

I like the potential of a lesser financial burden. But one thing I haven't seen in this thread, yet, (and maybe I missed it), but Glaus may come out of this with more trade value. I think he'll be healthier, and teams usually want that pop. Rolen probably lost points by not being able to get along with his last two managers, and the team I wanted him dealt to probably stood no chance since that first manager is now a coach there. Glaus, OTOH, might prefer to go to CA.

[EastonBlues22]

You can reasonably speculate, as you have, that Rolen's performance should have suffered in the second half of '06 (as it did) due to his original surgeries. However, wouldn't it be logical to then speculate that Rolen, after another full off-season of conditioning, would have then had a fully healthy and productive '07?

It's certainly possible, but as I've already noted the shoulder is a complex joint and any timetable for the return of 100% functionality and strength is a guesstimate at best. Certainly it could have been hoped for, but nothing should have ever been assumed.

You have also speculated that Rolen's failure to rest his sore shoulder last season is what really led to his poor performance and that it was a downward spiral from there due to his altering his mechanics. Wouldn't the fact that he was experiencing shoulder pain/soreness to begin with so early in the season and Rolen himself reportedly saying that the shoulder felt the best it had since the surgeries seriously concern you about the prospects of his future health?

The soreness itself is isn't anything unusual even more than a year removed from surgery...and it was hardly a death knell for his prospects moving forward. We don't know what prompted that tinkering, specifically, but as long as it wasn't a general a structural soundness issue (and it appears it wasn't), then it was something (fatigue/strength) that could be worked on over time and have its negative effects mitigated over the course of the season with proper rest intervals.

Sometime after the onset of whatever symptoms cropped up, he started tinkering with his mechanics and his ROM began to suffer. We don't know the exact order of occurance, but it's very likely that any ROM problems/degeneration could have been avoided with a proper addressing of the original symptoms. We also know that things became progressively worse as he continuted to tinker and play through the symptoms without rest. At the beginning of 2007 I was fairly optimistic about his long term prognosis. Now, largely due to the stupidity of his own actions, I'm a little less so but those concerns are counterbalanced by the lack of additional structural damage/looseness in 2007. (That is, his stupidity was enough to trash his 2007, but not enough to ruin or alter his long term prognosis.) If his ROM and strength/stability are back to what they were at the beginning of 2007 (i.e. good enough to pass a thorough physical), then my hopes for his future are restored in similar fashion to nearly pre-2007 levels. It should be expected that we're going to have to handle him delicately for quite awhile...but that doesn't mean that he has a poor prognosis at all.

You also point to Rolen's inability to take himself out of the line-up as being the crux of the problem. What makes you believe that Rolen's decision-making will change should he experience further shoulder problems or soreness or even have other injuries?

The fact that he publicly admitted that he made a mistake in the way he handled things in 2007.

In the end, there are more questions than answers when it comes to Rolen's shoulder and that alone should tell you that Glaus is the better bet to remain a healthy, productive player. Factor in the contracts and Rolen's desire to be somewhere else and to me, the decision is easy.

I've already said that how you view this trade is largely a matter of how you feel about Rolen's chances of rebounding. If you're a doubter, or feel that moving him along in the interest of team harmony is worth the potential talent trade-off, then more power to you. I merely stated my opinions and defended them against questioning.

I'll leave you with a quote from Will Carroll from one of his "Under the Knife" reports on baseball prospectus from September: "While Rolen should be fine for next spring, his last, more major procedure only got him through about a season and a half, and he suffered problems along the way. The sad fact is that Rolen is going to be affected by his bum shoulder for the remainder of his career." No offense, but I'm more willing to put stock in his assessment than yours.

Hehe...no offense taken at all. If you feel like Carroll has knowledge/authority on this issue, then by all means feel free to believe what he says. My opinions are my own and I do not intend to force them on anyone else.

[Rieges]

As for the Rolen trade being a salary dump, I'm not sure what your thought process is there. The Cards are taking on at least $12.75M in '08 salary (more than Rolen's '08 salary) and possibly $24M overall. I realize that they're freeing up money for '10 and possibly '09 with the move but to me, that's just smart baseball unless you truly believe a 35-yr old Rolen will justify the $12M salary.

I'll wait until I see the final numbers. If they simply moved the players and the contracts, then I wouldn't expect Glaus to be back unless he performed poorly next year. They might as well have dumped Rolen's salary. If they get a good player in Glaus he's gone, and a bad player with a player option doesn't help.

IOW, I was hoping that we'd gamble on Rolen instead of trying to dump salary. Unless Glaus is guaranteed to stay in 2009, this is about as useful a move.

If I'm DeWitt, I might try and save the money if I think Rolen is shot. But if there's a chance he gets back to form, there aren't any 3B like him available and we are getting short on elite performers. Rolen justified his salary last year, BTW.

You're not considering that if Glaus ishaving a big season, the team could flip Glaus at the trade deadline, especially to a team for which he'd exercise his option or negotiate an extension, but certainly to a play-off bound team needing a bat. I can't imagine that he wouldn't waive his NTC to play in the post-season. We could go back-and-forth on whether Rolen justified his salary in '07 for days and never agree. Rolen is actually one of my favorite players but this is the right move.

[planet planet]

I'm a huge Rolen fan, but I have to say that my gut feeling is that I like this trade. I really, really hope Rolen comes back with a healthy shoulder. I'm not betting on it, but I hope he does.

I just think it's foolish to say anything about Rolen offensive stats or how he's been better than Glaus "on average" over a certain period of time. The fact is that he's rarely ever healthy. His one healthy season was 2003, and the Cards actually missed the playoffs then. He was hurt in the playoffs of 02, hurt in September of 04 and was MIA after that (except for a good NLCS), and hurt in 05 with the bad shoulder that's kept him hurt/ineffective since.

Then throw in the feud mess, and they had to get rid of him, IMO.

Now, I believe Glaus will be healthier. There's no question that Rolen is much better on defense. Nobody will deny that. And Rolen's shoulder won't prevent him from being good on defense still. But playing in Toronto won't do him any favors.

I like the potential of a lesser financial burden. But one thing I haven't seen in this thread, yet, (and maybe I missed it), but Glaus may come out of this with more trade value. I think he'll be healthier, and teams usually want that pop. Rolen probably lost points by not being able to get along with his last two managers, and the team I wanted him dealt to probably stood no chance since that first manager is now a coach there. Glaus, OTOH, might prefer to go to CA.

BW, your post completely sums up how I feel about this trade. I'm not jumping up and down and feelings are mixed, having lost two Cards fan favorites and excellent players in one offseason. I think Rolen had to go and I think Glaus represents the best value we could have received in return, given the circumstances.

[haltz]

I can't imagine that he wouldn't waive his NTC to play in the post-season. We could go back-and-forth on whether Rolen justified his salary in '07 for days and never agree.

I don't mind if you don't agree with me on Rolen's worth in 2007. It is what it is. He was a 3-win player including defense, and that's worth $12M.

If Glaus limits where he'll go (and he can decide whether he'll go where the team wants him to or not), his price as a half-year rental will be even lower. If he's having a big year, he'll be a bubble type A. I'd rather take the picks, and we'll essentially be paying $12M for those before bonus.

Rolen is actually one of my favorite players but this is the right move.

Good, I was worried that it wasn't.

[BW23]

planet...I wasn't even thinking about losing Jimmy even though it was mentioned previously in this thread. I hated when they brought Edmonds in, but he quickly became one of my all time favs. Rolen always had my respect for the way he played the game. I hate that both are gone.

I don't like the direction of the offseason, but I'm mostly worried about 2009, and nothing has been done to mess with it...yet. And there's plenty of time between now and next offseason to really improve it...particularly during the season if the team isn't doing well. If healthy, Izzy, Glaus, Looper, Mulder, Franklin, Reyes, Duncan and a couple of others could all be on the block for a nice return. Some might have to be packaged, but the potential is there for Mo to make a good mark. At least the deals thus far have really been one-year stopgaps.