If you love baseball the stuff can be fun to read about!vinsanity wrote:You metrics guys are gonna kill me with This VORP, OPS+, ERA+ and PECOTA and PETA and STD i'm just going insane.
Cards get Jeff Weaver
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Michael
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Michael
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BP weighs in...
LinkSo, Walt Jocketty didn’t wait for the month’s end to do something about the meltdown in the rotation, instead probably agreeing to take on more of Weaver’s salary than the part-season share of the minimum that claiming him on waivers would have cost the Cards--assuming he’d slipped to them. Jocketty sensibly avoided that risk, tossed in a flyer-worthy outfielder to sweeten the pot, and now may not have to live with the inadequacies of both Sidney Ponson and Jeff Suppan. Suppan hasn’t had a legitimately good start since May 5th; Ponson’s quality start against the Tigers on June 25th is more recent than that, but let’s face it, he’s Sidney Ponson. I could toss Jason Marquis into that mix, but he does seem more frequently able to crank out a quality start or pitch into the seventh inning, and those aren’t bad things, however flaky he’s seen to be.
There should only be one from among those three who will still be in the rotation after Mark Mulder comes back, but that’s admittedly a house of cards based on wishcasting Mulder into effectiveness and Weaver into reliability. But let’s consider what PECOTA forecast (by weighted mean, full-season) for all seven of the Cardinals’ rotation options before the season:
Pitcher WARP
Carpenter 6.8
Weaver 4.6
Mulder 4.1
Suppan 4.1
Reyes 3.5
Marquis 3.2
Ponson 2.6
If you can afford to set aside the struggles that made certain that Weaver wouldn’t be an Angel for long, you can interpret this pickup as a masterstroke by Jocketty, one where he’s renting a good risk for three months on the chance that instead of being someone who’s irreparably broken, Weaver might be his second-best starter. Considering that Weaver’s 29 and in relatively good repair, and that he’s coming back to the DH-free league where he enjoyed solid success in the previous two seasons, it’s easy to see that this could be the move that secures the Cardinals’ bid for the playoffs. Sure, that doesn’t mean that any of the positioning, negotiating, haggling, or blocking that goes on in the weeks and months to come won’t be interesting, but this was a pretty uncomplicated good idea if you turn a blind eye to Weaver’s first three months. Considering the alternatives involved Ponson, Marquis’ congenital case of the flakes, and Suppan’s limitations, and it becomes easier still. Considering the organization’s shortage of viable prospects, Jocketty does what he can with his financial flexibility, and it looks like he had just enough to offer to make it happen yet again.
Giving up twelve runs and 24 hits in his 15 innings pitched since the end of May reduced Thompson to the guy who could be let go from among the thirteen hurlers that Tony LaRussa has kept on the club. Thompson might be back if he thrives while Josh Kinney struggles, and since John Rodriguez hasn’t provided much power, the Cards wanted to see what they’d get by bringing Duncan back. The outfield rotation should be interesting to watch: a combination of Duncan, Rodriguez, So Taguchi, and Juan Encarnacion might make up for the shortcomings of each, while providing a solid-enough combination of platoon strengths, defensive abilities, and even speed afoot to keep the Cards covered during Jim Edmonds’ next injury. Hopefully, the Cards will afford themselves the luxury of keeping the lot, and using them interchangeably to best advantage. Heck, if a club has two corner outfield slots and the pitcher’s spot to juggle (and with so few Cardinals starters able to make it past the sixth inning), it isn’t inconceivable that LaRussa might be able to spread around the playing time well enough to keep everyone busy while also keeping his seven relievers busy. It should definitely make for interesting box scores, at the very least.
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docellis
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fanforever wrote:I Hope everyone is praying......fanforever wrote:Usually the hope would be that Busch Stadium would bail Weaver out of his Cape Canaveral rocket-launch pitching style. Would it? No. Weaver is an extreme RH pitcher, a sidearm guy who has a sidearm slider and a lack of deception.
You think lefties don't fight to get to the box against this guy? Try these results on for size:
2006 vs LH: .560 SLG, 969 OPS
2003-05 vs LH: .506 SLG, 875 OPS
A little perspective, please: in 2003-05, every average LH hitter in the league turned into Miguel Tejada against Weaver. (Okay, Eric Chavez.)
In 2006, every average LH hitter has turned into Travis Hafner.
You think managers don't know that Weaver is a popup punching clown against any warm body in the right-side batter's box?
2003-06 AB's vs LH: 1445
2003-06 AB's vs RH: 1283
And on second thought I don't think you can use Weaver as a RHP relief specialist. This year, he's giving up an 853 OPS against right-hand hitters.
So, great. You're going to take a guy who turns ham-and-egg LH hitters into Adam Dunn, and every manager in both leagues knows it, and you're going to put this pitcher into Busch Stadium...
say your prayers
[-o<