Update: HOLLIDAY A CARD 7yr/120 million, p178

[haltz]

Thanks. I meant, theoretically though. Can the Cardinals tie up (potentially, including Albert in a few years) 40+ mil a year for two players a year? Is Bay (at your past amount) really that much of a downgrade (monetarily vs offense/defense)?

I don't see why not, as long as they aren't drastically overpaying for Pujols and Holliday. You are just buying wins, and getting that much production out of two spots instead of spread out over four or five for the same amount of money is great when you can come up with guys like Rasmus, Ludwick, Schumaker, Yadi, Freese and Ryan who were all obtained for nothing and at the least cost-controlled.

It's just one of those things that people say.

And yes, if you put Bay out there all else equal it likely makes the team 2-3 wins worse.

[slide_into_first]

Reggie Sanders hit homers and was an inconsistent outfielder and he left when they stopped paying him.

[haltz]

Reggie Sanders hit homers and was an inconsistent outfielder and he left when they stopped paying him.

I don't follow.

He was 38, his contract was up, and the Royals gave him $10M to play in 100 games and hit like a shortstop.

[slide_into_first]

Reggie Sanders hit homers and was an inconsistent outfielder and he left when they stopped paying him.

I don't follow.

I think I'm reminiscing for the good old days when outfielders got only 2-3 million.

[docellis]

Texiera go eight-year, $180 million. Is Holiday going to get that in STL? And if he does, what does Pujols get? 22 million a year for Holliday (if he gets that) means Pujols has to get at least 30 million, right?

Is the difference between Bays stats (and the wins he contributes, at $7.5 mil last year) and Holliday's quantifiable in cash paid versus wins contributes, value over "replacement player" or another stat?

[haltz]

Sanders is no Holliday. Vlad and Edmonds got paid a lot more.

[haltz]

Is the difference between Bays stats (and the wins he contributes, at $7.5 mil last year) and Holliday's quantifiable?

yes, it's all on fangraphs.

A run is a run, and 10 or so equals a win. You want to buy those wins and get them more or less as efficiently as possible so you can get more. If you can get Holliday for a reasonable amount of money, you're probably better off having two superstars and filling in around them than trying to marginally upgrade some other spot on the roster. If someone is going to pay Holliday more money than the value you put on his services, you go to plan B.

[docellis]

Is the difference between Bays stats (and the wins he contributes, at $7.5 mil last year) and Holliday's quantifiable?

yes, it's all on fangraphs.

A run is a run, and 10 or so equals a win. You want to buy those wins and get them more or less as efficiently as possible so you can get more. If you can get Holliday for a reasonable amount of money, you're probably better off having two superstars and filling in around them than trying to marginally upgrade some other spot on the roster. If someone is going to pay Holliday more money than the value you put on his services, you go to plan B.

So what is his value according to fangraphs? I'll go there and try to figure it out, never been there though.

Edit, yeah, I don't see anything there that illustrates wins versus worth monetarily...

[haltz]

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?pl ... n=OF#value

You'd want a projection of what a player who's been worth $28M a year over the last three years will be worth next year then discount it for age and length of contract etc, but that's what he's been worth recently.

[TGantz]

I want to play devil's advocate for a second. Maybe if Holliday came back he'd be the same as at the end of the '09 season. Maybe Albert will continue to have reduced power, then we're using a good portion of our payroll on two guys to not hit home runs. All of those hypothetical websites and stats are impressive and really cool, but it's not perfect. We won't know what kind of money it will take for Holliday until Bay signs with the Red Sox, which is what I think Bay will do.

I think unless he is asking for something reasonable, a can't miss offer, we should just make a few quiet moves like signing DeRosa for a 2 year/$10 Mil deal and sign Glaus to a 1 year incentive based contract with an option for next year or something like that. Then we have some money for a deadline deal for bringing in someone like Halladay or a better younger option at LF.

This is a very weak FA class, I think we should be patient and not make a deal just to make a deal.