Coronavirus

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

I like Bhattacharya and think he's pretty well situated being both an MD and having a PhD in economics iirc to discuss the pandemic, responses, and overall efforts to combat the disease.

He did one of the first serology studies in the US back in like June 2020 iirc to determine the infection fatality rate which came under heavy scrutiny. IIRC, it was pretty close to what has become mostly accepted.

I heard him give an in depth interview a while back and he described the backlash as surreal with buzzfeed, the bastion of scientific research, in particular criticizing his methods and for some reason his family.

Obviously the GBD brought its own scrutiny and was seen as heresy by many. I'd hope people that saw it as such at the time don't dismiss the message outright today because, as the article mentions, the emergence of the vaccine and therapeutics alter the risk associated with covid and offer better methods of protection than what was available back then.

From what I heard/read/saw both now and in the past, he never stood out as a political type of guy, just one that was well spoken and knowledgeable. Thanks for posting.

[MrCrowesGarden]

I think a true and proper lockdown would have worked, but we’re well past that point.

[heyzeus]

I get all of what that guy is saying, and tend to agree to some extent. It is predominantly elderly and unvaccinated people who are being hospitalized and dying of Covid. A lockdown is not forthcoming. Viral spread is here to stay.

But...I mean, just to state the simple/obvious, 1800 people died of Covid in America yesterday. It's been over 2000 several days this week. I don't have an answer, really. But the status quo isn't acceptable.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

I think a true and proper lockdown would have worked, but we’re well past that point.

I'd agree contingent upon multiple things:
1. It was an effective worldwide lockdown. Groceries delivered. Martial law. Etc.
2. It was done extremely early, January even may have been to late.
3. It wasn't prevalent in animals.
4. The source was identified and eliminated.

Meeting those contingencies is extremely challenging if not downright impossible.

[MrCrowesGarden]

I think a true and proper lockdown would have worked, but we’re well past that point.

I'd agree contingent upon multiple things:
1. It was an effective worldwide lockdown. Groceries delivered. Martial law. Etc.
2. It was done extremely early, January even may have been to late.
3. It wasn't prevalent in animals.
4. The source was identified and eliminated.

Meeting those contingencies is extremely challenging if not downright impossible.

I think number 1 is the biggest one, but I also understand what you mean about worldwide. It's similar to the gun problem we have when everyone goes "but Chicago!!!" when you can easily drive to Indiana.

The biggest reason people despised the lockdowns in the US, if you can even call them that, was because we prioritized capital instead of giving people adequate relief or protection.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

I get all of what that guy is saying, and tend to agree to some extent. It is predominantly elderly and unvaccinated people who are being hospitalized and dying of Covid. A lockdown is not forthcoming. Viral spread is here to stay.

But...I mean, just to state the simple/obvious, 1800 people died of Covid in America yesterday. It's been over 2000 several days this week. I don't have an answer, really. But the status quo isn't acceptable.

Agreed with everything. How many deaths are attributed to covid annually still remains to be seen. According to worldometers, about 375K Americans died of covid in 2020 and 470K died in 2021. We're sitting at 855K total in just under 2 years since the first death was recorded (March 1, 2020) though likely there were some before that.

Will vaccines and natural infections lower that number in 2022? Highly likely. With omicron surging, the 7 day rolling average of deaths is 50%+ lower y/y so far. Still, how many deaths are acceptable annually? We're just going to find out and hope for the best. Hope strategy etc.

There is no 'best' path forward, only the path we're on with perhaps some marginal improvements. The 'best' path forward would involve a time machine to go back to 2018 with the knowledge we have gained and better ready the world to quickly eradicate the virus in 2019 which of course isn't happening. But, that doesn't mean we, globally, can't be ready to take the 'best' path next time, something that hasn't really happened, imho.

[Popeye_Card]

If we get that time machine, I’d like to request that someone buys me some Tesla and Gamestop stock. And maybe some bitcoin.

[ghostrunner]

I get all of what that guy is saying, and tend to agree to some extent. It is predominantly elderly and unvaccinated people who are being hospitalized and dying of Covid. A lockdown is not forthcoming. Viral spread is here to stay.

But...I mean, just to state the simple/obvious, 1800 people died of Covid in America yesterday. It's been over 2000 several days this week. I don't have an answer, really. But the status quo isn't acceptable.

Same. This statement is something else.

In Sweden and many US states that have eschewed lockdowns, the pandemic is effectively over, even as the virus continues to circulate.

If “pandemic” means measures to mitigate the pandemic effects then I guess so. But I’m sorry, f off with that.

I’m not sold on the non-efficacy of masks. There are many issues with how they’re used, how they’ve been promoted, and debate about whether mandates are appropriate. Virtually every study I’ve seen saying they don’t work as advertised or aren’t used properly still says they have some positive effect. Only a small percentage out in the world use an n95 or kn95, and those that use cloth or surgical aren’t using them properly. We could have and still could take steps to resolve what mask they’re using. In terms of covering the nose there’s surprisingly little signage or public messaging to that effect. Perfect fit is probably too much to ask for but we haven’t really tried to push improvement on that either, IMO.

To me common sense says stopping spray at the source has to be a significant benefit. I haven’t seen a study yet that attempts to either prove or disprove that. So that’s at least one thing that makes sense to me when cases and hospitalizations are as high as they are now.

The attempt to divide people into classes based on whether they can work from home is also pretty gross. I work from home now most of the time. I recognize not everyone can do that. That’s not a reason to just carry on like nothing’s happening, or not to help mitigate spread to the extent you’re able. Not going to an office when you don’t have to helps those people who have to work at stores or restaurants.

[G. Keenan]

How restrictive is the mask mandate? We have had to wear surgical masks everywhere in the office if you are away from your individual cube/office ever since we returned in June 2020, outside of a couple months this summer. It really hasn’t been a big deal. If you are in a meeting all day with it on, or doing a bunch of talking it starts to annoy you.

That said, I don’t know how effective it has been particularly with omicron. Seems like 75% of the office has had Covid in the past month, but who knows if that is being transmitted at work or just out in public where mask usage is maybe 10%.

The not that big a deal and ineffective parts are two sides of the same coin though. I also think it’s a way to lie to people about safety, so people will come in even though it actually barely helps. And I worry it may become one of many accumulating not always minor costs we get stuck with endlessly and never reevaluate.

So how does one find such a fitted N95? Isn't that something that staff at hospitals have done for them? Seems like the general public has no chance of getting properly fitted N95s.

Anecdotally, one thing I noticed in Spain, France, and Germany this summer was that almost no one wears cloth masks there. I'd guestimate that like 60% of people wear surgical masks and 40% wear FFP2. In Italy the price of FFP2 masks has been fixed.

So they are in general wearing higher quality masks than we are, and omicron has spread like wildfire nonetheless.

[Popeye_Card]

I'm fairly certain that COVID transmission is primarily aerosol, making virtually any mask useless. I know you may ask "but what about hospitals? Don't masks work there for all kinds of dieseases?" Well yes, but they also have ventilation systems that are >>>>> than your local grocery store or corporate office building.