I do think that's the grossest part about this and goes back to the biggest blunder being the government prioritized the economy over people.
I think you are underestimating the size of the "essential" economy. The portion that would still have to function in-person during even the strictest of lockdowns, unless we were all satisfied eating food from our pantries, not using any utilities, etc. for two weeks.
I don't think I am. The government could have done grocery delivery. Of course there are some jobs where it would have been necessary for people to be in person, but we could have done so much more for them.
Instead we have carve-outs arguing Bass Pro Shops is an essential business because they sell beef jerky at the counter (actually happened here.)
Don't get me wrong, there were some laughably bad excuses for essential businesses last time around with their hands held out for money from the government. I just don't envision that you can shut everything down and quarantine everyone from each other effectively for 2+ weeks that would just eliminate COVID transmission. There's far more to grocery logistics than the National Guard and/or military can just suddenly pick up on and run for two weeks.
Think of how the economy works on Christmas day, when maybe 5% of a normal economy (truly essential services, utilities, etc.) is running. Now stretch that out for 2 weeks. That's simply not feasible. I think you are still talking 15-20% of workers still needing to show up for work to keep things going.
Re: masks, this is what isn't answered to my satisfaction:
Yes, Covid is transmitted through aerosolized particles. But the aerosol doesn't just occur straight out of the mouth or nose, right? Or does it, and to what extent? I'm sure some escapes the mouth in small particles but a lot of it gets out in bigger droplets which presumably dissipate. If you sneeze, you've got a variety of particles coming out. A visible stream in the center and bunch of smaller particles you can't even see coming out as well. The further you shoot those out and the fewer that are obstructed, the more particles will exist in the air. If this is oversimplifying, I'd like to see it proven. But it seems logical.
So in a busy neighborhood grocery, lets' say 1000 people go in a day. 100 have covid. What's the difference in accumulated aerosolized particles present in the air if none of those people are masked vs 50% of them or 100%. Or cloth vs semi-leaky N95s. How different is the saturation? Practically, you can say it doesn't matter if people won't do it or won't wear the mask properly, or they wear cloth masks. But if we don't know the answer to what works the best then it's not possible to recommend a course of action that everyone can communicate and follow. If it's not possible to know this, then we're left with what seems best to us. And with N95s you can actually protect yourself somewhat, and that's important if you've got vulnerable people in your life.
I'd really like an answer to how much covid goes in or out around the edges of masks. Out of curiosity as much as anything, because this seems more or less important depending on what expert you listen to.
I find any anecdotal or regional example hard to credit because it seems impossible to know enough about general behavior. Absent any real firm guidance, everyone's doing something different.
My understanding is that the particles are small enough that we are talking about them being attached to the air flowing through the mask, and not around the edges. Unless it is being passed through a HEPA level filter, COVID is being spread around.
You can tape a surgical style mask around the edges, and you'll still be able to breathe fairly easily through the material. A N95 will be tough, but still forcing some air through. I wouldn't want to spend all day breathing through that, even if it was filtering well enough to block COVID from passing through.
My understanding is Omicron just infects with a much smaller load and we're creating much more of it when we're infected. So the viral load is the big difference. There's more out there and it takes less of it to do damage. I haven't seen anything saying the size is different, but doesn't mean it's not true.
Re: masks, this is what isn't answered to my satisfaction:
Yes, Covid is transmitted through aerosolized particles. But the aerosol doesn't just occur straight out of the mouth or nose, right? Or does it, and to what extent? I'm sure some escapes the mouth in small particles but a lot of it gets out in bigger droplets which presumably dissipate. If you sneeze, you've got a variety of particles coming out. A visible stream in the center and bunch of smaller particles you can't even see coming out as well. The further you shoot those out and the fewer that are obstructed, the more particles will exist in the air. If this is oversimplifying, I'd like to see it proven. But it seems logical.
So in a busy neighborhood grocery, lets' say 1000 people go in a day. 100 have covid. What's the difference in accumulated aerosolized particles present in the air if none of those people are masked vs 50% of them or 100%. Or cloth vs semi-leaky N95s. How different is the saturation? Practically, you can say it doesn't matter if people won't do it or won't wear the mask properly, or they wear cloth masks. But if we don't know the answer to what works the best then it's not possible to recommend a course of action that everyone can communicate and follow. If it's not possible to know this, then we're left with what seems best to us. And with N95s you can actually protect yourself somewhat, and that's important if you've got vulnerable people in your life.
I'd really like an answer to how much covid goes in or out around the edges of masks. Out of curiosity as much as anything, because this seems more or less important depending on what expert you listen to.
I find any anecdotal or regional example hard to credit because it seems impossible to know enough about general behavior. Absent any real firm guidance, everyone's doing something different.
My understanding is that the particles are small enough that we are talking about them being attached to the air flowing through the mask, and not around the edges. Unless it is being passed through a HEPA level filter, COVID is being spread around.
You can tape a surgical style mask around the edges, and you'll still be able to breathe fairly easily through the material. A N95 will be tough, but still forcing some air through. I wouldn't want to spend all day breathing through that, even if it was filtering well enough to block COVID from passing through.
My understanding is Omicron just infects with a much smaller load and we're creating much more of it when we're infected. So the viral load is the big difference. There's more out there and it takes less of it to do damage. I haven't seen anything saying the size is different, but doesn't mean it's not true.
What I'm saying is that the COVID virus has been aerosol (attached and passes with normal breath) the entire time, with cloth and surgical masks being minimally effective all along. You were basically relying upon distance and ventilation between you and an infected person, with the filtration of the masks providing very little benefit. The lower viral load omicron requires to transmit just amplifies how important the distance and ventilation variables are.
EDIT: I guess think of it this way. We've been treating this like not getting sneeze droplets spreading from one person to another. We should be treating it like not smelling another person's fart. Doens't matter how tight fitting and dense their underwear is - you are going to smell it.
Last edited by Popeye_Card on January 7 22, 11:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
I do think that's the grossest part about this and goes back to the biggest blunder being the government prioritized the economy over people.
I think you are underestimating the size of the "essential" economy. The portion that would still have to function in-person during even the strictest of lockdowns, unless we were all satisfied eating food from our pantries, not using any utilities, etc. for two weeks.
I don't think I am. The government could have done grocery delivery. Of course there are some jobs where it would have been necessary for people to be in person, but we could have done so much more for them.
Instead we have carve-outs arguing Bass Pro Shops is an essential business because they sell beef jerky at the counter (actually happened here.)
Don't get me wrong, there were some laughably bad excuses for essential businesses last time around with their hands held out for money from the government. I just don't envision that you can shut everything down and quarantine everyone from each other effectively for 2+ weeks that would just eliminate COVID transmission. There's far more to grocery logistics than the National Guard and/or military can just suddenly pick up on and run for two weeks.
Think of how the economy works on Christmas day, when maybe 5% of a normal economy (truly essential services, utilities, etc.) is running. Now stretch that out for 2 weeks. That's simply not feasible. I think you are still talking 15-20% of workers still needing to show up for work to keep things going.
I think your figure is maybe right, but I really think it could be done. And if it can't... if the economy really can't pause for 14 days (the government seems to think it can't stop for 10), then workers need to use that as their biggest bargaining chip ever.
Point being, to act as if it's absurd to talk about the pandemic like it's effectively over or even offensive then I'd be curious what metrics you'd use. Still, I don't agree with his statement it's effectively over. As a citizen of one of the states he talks about, my kid's school is still doing virtual learning. The hospitals are mobilizing to meet a coming surge. Lines to get tested are long. Etc.
I feel like this answers your question. The hospitalizations in particular are already straining the system, even where many people are vaxxed.
Hospitals are strained, not overrun. They've also had two years to adapt and prepare and have been unable to do so. Sure, omicron came on quickly, but winter and its associated surge was more than predictable by anyone able to read a 4th grade level textbook. Sucks for the workers who will be overworked. But, at this point, I'd argue hospitals are underserving their communities more so than communities are overrunning hospitals. We've had two massive waves in hospitalizations the past year or so prior to this one. Every medical expert in the world agrees covid will become endemic, not go away. Everyone agrees it will mutate. Yet, I guess hospitals are just like, eh, it'll go away, no need to worry about it. I'm not too keen on letting them dictate the status of of the pandemic. We could go on like this forever if they don't allocate enough beds/staff for surges.
Re: 2 week lockdown. It's pretty irrelevant. You could have virtually ZERO human to human transmission for two weeks and covid would still exist in animals who would soon reinfect a couple humans and wala back to where we started.
Re: 2 week lockdown. It's pretty irrelevant. You could have virtually ZERO human to human transmission for two weeks and covid would still exist in animals who would soon reinfect a couple humans and wala back to where we started.
This is a worldwide pandemic as well. Two weeks of everyone locked down means people will die. Lots of people.
Re: 2 week lockdown. It's pretty irrelevant. You could have virtually ZERO human to human transmission for two weeks and covid would still exist in animals who would soon reinfect a couple humans and wala back to where we started.
I remember back at the beginning when everyone was all flabbergasted at "patient zero" in St Louis that he took his daughter to the dance after testing positive for COVID and thinking, man, if this thing is really this contagious, how do people expect it to not take over the globe? People been watching too many zombie movies and playing too many board games.
Re: 2 week lockdown. It's pretty irrelevant. You could have virtually ZERO human to human transmission for two weeks and covid would still exist in animals who would soon reinfect a couple humans and wala back to where we started.
This is a worldwide pandemic as well. Two weeks of everyone locked down means people will die. Lots of people.
