Mozeliak: "Some Changes" Coming For Cardinals, But Not A Rebuild

[Magneto2.0]

I look at it like a 2 step process.

Step 1 is getting prospects now for our rentals.

Step 2 is turning those prospects (and/or our current prospects) into guys who can help the pitching staff next year. These moves would be more likely to occur in the off season, but it's possible it can happen at this year's deadline.

We cannot count on free agency to solve our pitching problems. Mo needs to nail these trades.

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[MinorLeagueGuy]

Shane Bieber isn't going to cost as much as people think.

I think you are right, and unfortunately I think you'll get what you pay for. His strikeout rate is falling off a cliff. Which makes him a classic Cardinals move.

I think Bieber is a good not great pitcher. I'd still be excited to get him, as long as we're not giving up too much

If they're asking for Winn, Hence, etc...then just move your target to someone else like Logan Gilbert or Luzardo

I think he *was* a great pitcher, but he's looking like damaged goods. Cleveland is good at developing pitchers, but also very good at running them into the ground.

Im looking at this Baseball Trade Values site, and they have Bieber at a value of +26(value considers salary/contract, WAR, current year, career, availability, etc). For instance, they value Arenado at -17 because he's not available. Carlson has a "low" availability and brings a value of +18. Donovan holds a +38, Edman +16, Flaherty +4(ouchie), Gorman at +33, Hicks at +2, and Monty at a +9.5.

Our future currently looks like Libby at +24.8, Hence in at +25.8, Winn at +26.7, Nootbar at +57, and Walker at +63.7.

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

[MinorLeagueGuy]

And for the Logan Gilbert crowd, he comes in at a +79.4

[haltz]

I don't think the availability has any bearing on value. It's purely a projection $WAR calculation of surplus value. So Arenado is projected to be worth $150M but owed $167M (or whatever the actual numbers are).

[Popeye_Card]

I love me a good Nootbaar, but in no universe should he be valued only a slight tick below Walker.

[Magneto2.0]

Not sure how they calculate value but I wonder if a good portion of Walker's value is muted based on being out of his natural position. Or does stuff like that not get calculated on the trade simulator?

[haltz]

Not sure how they calculate value but I wonder if a good portion of Walker's value is muted based on being out of his natural position. Or does stuff like that not get calculated on the trade simulator?

So they just updated it based on 60% of the season being over and obviously Walker's defense is regressed in a projection but that has to be hurting his value.

Noot currently projects at .335 woba with better defense and Walker is at .320 with another year of control or something like that.

[Jedibaracuda]

One of the trends I see that could be contributing to our woes is Mo and DeWitt continually sticking to hiring within the organization. After TLR, our managers have been Mattheny (former Cardinals catcher), Shildt (Cards assistant coach) and Marmol (Cards first base coach). Our pitching coach is an organizational guy too with barely any experience. I understand the idea of bringing up guys who the players know, but it feels like DeWitt has been micromanaging this franchise a bit too much and we all know Mo is just an extension of DeWitt. They need to start bringing in some outside voices who at least have some idea of what other organizations are doing.

[jagtrader]

One thing you can get at the deadline is live arms for the bullpen. The Cardinals could use about 5 of those.

[Magneto2.0]

Not sure how they calculate value but I wonder if a good portion of Walker's value is muted based on being out of his natural position. Or does stuff like that not get calculated on the trade simulator?

So they just updated it based on 60% of the season being over and obviously Walker's defense is regressed in a projection but that has to be hurting his value.

Noot currently projects at .335 woba with better defense and Walker is at .320 with another year of control or something like that.

Thanks! I agree with Popeye that I still don't think Noot should be that close to him in value but at least it brings a little bit more clarity to it.